The healthcare landscape in the United States is undergoing one of its most dynamic shifts in decades, with surgical procedures at the center of this transformation. As demand grows due to chronic disease prevalence, an aging population, and new technological advancements, the US surgical procedures market is projected to rise from 108,275.5 thousand procedures in 2023 to 127,748.5 thousand procedures by 2028, at a CAGR of 3.4%.
For business leaders, investors, and healthcare executives, this market expansion is more than just an increase in patient volume—it represents a strategic opportunity to rethink care delivery models, align with innovation, and capture long-term ROI in one of the most resilient segments of healthcare.
The Strategic Drivers of Growth in Surgical Procedures
- The Growing Burden of Chronic Diseases
Four out of every five older adults in the US live with at least one chronic disease, ranging from cardiovascular disorders to Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s. These conditions often necessitate surgical interventions—whether to manage complications, replace failing body functions, or maintain overall quality of life.
The direct link between chronic conditions and surgical demand makes this segment relatively recession-resistant. Essential procedures such as emergency surgeries, cancer interventions, and orthopedic replacements remain priorities despite economic headwinds.
- An Aging Population with Higher Care Needs
By 2030, one in five Americans will be over 65. The demand for dental implants, orthopedic procedures, cardiovascular interventions, and ophthalmic surgeries is expected to accelerate as longevity reshapes healthcare needs. Dental surgeries alone—covering periodontal treatment, implants, and restorative care—already account for the largest share of the market, reflecting a mix of lifestyle-driven and age-related demand.
- Technological Advancements Reshaping the Operating Room
Minimally invasive procedures, robotic surgery, digital imaging, and AI-assisted diagnostics are reducing complication risks and improving recovery times. These innovations not only increase patient safety but also unlock new revenue streams for hospitals, physician offices, and ambulatory surgery centers (ASCs) by enabling complex surgeries in less resource-intensive environments.
- The Rising Role of Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs)
ASCs are the fastest-growing surgical channel, with orthopedics, cardiology, and high-acuity spine procedures leading adoption. Patients value lower costs, faster recovery, and shorter wait times, while providers benefit from greater efficiency and cost containment. For executives, the growth of ASCs signals an important shift toward decentralized surgical care, with implications for partnerships, payer negotiations, and infrastructure investments.
Economic and Policy Headwinds: Challenges to Navigate
While the outlook for surgical procedures is strong, executives must account for structural and macroeconomic barriers:
- Healthcare cost pressures: Increased out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses and high-cost sharing models may delay elective surgeries, shifting patient volumes across segments.
- Workforce shortages: Skilled surgeon and nurse shortages could constrain capacity, driving investments in automation and surgical robotics.
- Economic volatility: The lingering effects of the pandemic, recessionary trends, and geopolitical disruptions (e.g., the Russia-Ukraine war) will influence capital expenditure decisions across healthcare networks.
- Regulatory oversight: New reimbursement structures and policy changes may redefine margins across hospitals, ASCs, and physician offices.
For C-suite leaders, these challenges demand a dual strategy: cost discipline in the short term and investment in scalable innovation for long-term growth.
Market Segmentation Insights: Where the Growth Lies
By Type of Surgery
- Dental surgeries lead the market due to rising oral care awareness, aging demographics, and demand for implants.
- Orthopedic procedures (especially joint replacements and spine surgeries) are accelerating in both hospitals and ASCs.
- Cardiovascular and gastrointestinal surgeries are expected to maintain steady growth given chronic disease prevalence.
- Cosmetic and ophthalmic surgeries are gaining traction as disposable incomes rise, supported by minimally invasive technologies.
By Channel of Care
- Physician Offices dominate today, enabled by office-based surgical technologies that reduce overhead and offer physicians greater autonomy.
- Hospitals remain essential for high-acuity and emergency procedures, but face competition from decentralized models.
- Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASCs) are projected to post the highest CAGR through 2028, particularly in orthopedics and cardiovascular specialties, reflecting both payer incentives and patient preferences.
Strategic Opportunities for Healthcare Executives
- Invest in Office-Based and ASC Infrastructure
Executives should evaluate partnerships, acquisitions, or greenfield developments in the ASC space. The cost savings and patient-centric care models align strongly with payer strategies, while also unlocking new profitability for providers.
- Leverage Technology for Efficiency and ROI
Robotics, AI-enabled diagnostics, and digital patient management platforms are no longer optional—they are strategic imperatives. Early adopters can capture market share by reducing surgical errors, shortening hospital stays, and improving throughput.
- Develop Patient-Centric Financial Models
As OOP costs rise, offering flexible financing or bundled payment models can differentiate providers. This is especially critical for elective surgeries like dental, cosmetic, and orthopedic procedures.
- Address Workforce Shortages with Innovation
Automation in operating rooms, smart scheduling, and advanced training tools can offset labor constraints. Executives must prioritize workforce sustainability as part of their growth strategies.
- Capitalize on Preventive and Essential Procedures
Emergency and chronic disease-related surgeries remain the least impacted by economic volatility. Aligning resources and capacity to serve these segments ensures stability during downturns.
Future Outlook: Surgical Care in 2028 and Beyond
By 2028, the US surgical procedures market will not just be larger—it will be structurally different. Physician offices and ASCs will take on a larger share of surgical volume, with hospitals evolving into hubs for complex, high-acuity interventions. Automation, robotics, and AI will integrate seamlessly into the surgical workflow, driving precision and reducing human error.
From a business standpoint, the winners will be those who balance short-term operational efficiency with long-term investments in innovation, patient-centric care, and diversified surgical channels.
For C-level leaders, this is a pivotal moment: the evolution of surgical procedures will shape not only healthcare outcomes but also the economic sustainability of the US healthcare ecosystem.