Research Report on Chinese Natural Rubber Industry, 2011-2012

Report Summary

In 2010, Chinese natural rubber consumption broke through 3.50 million tons, accounting for over 1/3 of global natural rubber consumption. However, Chinese natural rubber output was only 687,000 tons, and the degree of external dependence exceeded 80%.

Due to rapid development of Chinese automobile industry and rapid growth of tire export in recent years, tire productivity rapidly expands, and natural rubber consumption greatly increases. In 2010, Chinese automobile output and sales volume saw a substantial increase, i.e. in 2010, Chinese automobile output was about 18.26 million, rising by 32.44% YOY; automobile sales volume was about 18.06 million, ascending by 32.37% YOY. Meanwhile, Chinese tire output also enjoyed a great increase. In 2010, Chinese rubber tire cover output reached 776.34 million, growing by 19.82% YOY.

Chinese natural rubber output cannot realize a substantial increase due to geographic position and climatic conditions. Hence, with constantly increasing demand in the downstream, Chinese natural rubber has high degree of external dependence. In 2010, China imported 1.86 million tons of natural rubber, increasing by 8.80% over 2009; the value was USD 5.67 billion, rising by 100%; the average import price was USD 3,045 per ton, greatly rising by 85.10%.

However, Chinese total natural rubber output fails to realize a great increase. In 2010, rubber tapping area of Chinese natural rubber increased, but the time of rubber tapping was postponed since the rubber planting areas in Yunnan suffered low temperature and droughts in 2010 H1; in addition, the rubber tapping time was shortened since the rubber planting areas in Hainan were influenced by continual heavy rain in 2010 Q3. As a result, domestic natural rubber output experienced a limited growth.

Since China has huge natural rubber consumption while it is hard for domestic natural rubber output to realize a substantial increase, Chinese enterprises are currently adopting measures including investing and establishing natural rubber plantations in the regions overseas suitable for rubber planting, accelerating the development of isoprene rubber with strong substitution of natural rubber and promoting the development of scrapped tire utilization industry so as to reduce the degree of external dependence of domestic natural rubber.

It deserves attention that in the next 1-2 years, natural rubber prices are predicted to maintain the rising tendency. First, idle fund speculation leads to the rise of futures prices, which drives the increase of spot prices. In recent period, since capital speculation comes into being and a proportion of national currency devaluates, thus rapidly flowing into the futures market in order to evade the inflation risk, spot prices of natural rubber also increase. Second, on Dec. 24, 2010, India decided to reduce natural rubber import tariffs to 7.50% before March 31, 2011. Since India is the world’s second largest natural rubber consuming country, its reduction of natural rubber import tariffs sends a signal of tense demand to international natural rubber market.

Through this report, more following information can be acquired:

• Natural rubber supply and demand
• Downstream demand for natural rubber
• Policies for natural rubber released by the Chinese government
• Chinese natural rubber import and export
• Prediction on development tendency of natural rubber industry

Following people are recommended to buy this report:

• Natural rubber planting enterprises
• Natural rubber trade enterprises
• Downstream enterprises of the natural rubber industry
• Investors focusing on the natural rubber industry
• Research institutes focusing on the natural rubber industry

Table Of Contents

1 Related Concepts of Natural Rubber
1.1 Definition
1.2 Natural Properties of Natural Rubber
1.2.1 Physical Properties
1.2.2 Chemical Properties
1.2.3 Medium Resistance Property
1.3 Classification
1.4 Analysis on Major Applications

2 Analysis on Global Natural Rubber Industry
2.1 Analysis on Supply of Global Natural Rubber
2.1.1 Planting Area and Output
2.1.2 Major Production Regions
2.1.3 Monopoly Factor
2.1.4 Prices in Global Natural Rubber Market
2.2 Production Mode Analysis
2.2.1 Organization Mode
2.2.2 Production Technique and Product Structure
2.2.3 Technology Development Trend
2.3 Demand
2.3.1 Overview
2.3.2 Regional Demand
2.3.3 Demand Structure of Industries
2.3.4 Substitutional Relationship Between Natural Rubber and Synthetic Rubber
2.4 Major Problems Influencing Global Rubber Supply in the Future
2.4.1 Aging Proportion of Rubber Trees Constantly Increasing
2.4.2 Variety Structure of Rubber trees Continuously Changing
2.4.3 Rubber Planting Regions of Major Rubber Producing Countries transferring

3 Analysis and Prediction on Chinese Natural Rubber Industry, 2010-2012
3.1 Policy Environment and Management System of Chinese Natural Rubber Industry
3.1.1 Policy Environment
3.1.2 Management System
3.1.3 Industry Planning
3.1.4 Technology Standards
3.1.5 Tariff Policy
3.1.6 National Reserve Policy
3.2 Natural Rubber Supply
3.2.1 Production Layout and Product Structure of Chinese Natural Rubber Industry
3.2.2 Natural Rubber Output Increases Slowly
3.3 Analysis on Demand of Chinese Natural Rubber Industry
3.3.1 High Dependence on Import
3.3.2 Development of Downstream Industries Promotes Demand for Natural Rubber
3.4 Analysis on Chinese Natural Rubber Trade and Prices
3.4.1 Rubber Trade Analysis
3.4.2 Price Analysis
3.5 Chinese Natural Rubber Import
3.5.1 Import Volume
3.5.2 Major Import Sources

4 Factors Influencing Development of Chinese Natural Rubber Industry
4.1 Favorable Factors
4.1.1 Good Policy Environment
4.1.2 Brisk Demand
4.1.3 Conductive to Environmental Protection
4.1.4 System Reform
4.2 Unfavorable Factors
4.2.1 Natural Conditions
4.2.2 Price Fluctuation
4.2.3 Fierce Competition
4.2.4 Risk of Substitution

5 Prediction on Development of Chinese Natural Rubber Industry, 2011-2015
5.1 Supply Prediction
5.2 Demand Prediction
5.3 Investment and Development Analysis

Selected Charts

Chart Global Natural Rubber Output, 2004-2010
Chart Output of Global Major Natural Rubber Producing Countries, 2010
Chart Global Natural Rubber Demand, 2004-2010
Chart Prediction on Demand of Global Natural Rubber, 2011-2015
Chart Chinese Natural Rubber Output, 2006-2010
Chart Chinese Natural Rubber Import Volume, 2004-2010
Chart Prediction on Chinese Natural Rubber Demand, 2011-2015
Chart Average Natural Rubber Prices in Chinese Market, 2002-2011
Chart Chinese Major Import Sources of Natural Rubber, 2010