Forecast Insight: Antibacterials

Introduction

Over the next decade, the fragmented antibacterials market will shift away from a blockbuster-business model, as generic erosion of market leaders and increased competition between new hospital drugs will trigger a decline in sales of branded antibacterials. While there is a lack of innovation with regards to new community drugs, the hospital sector will remain the only notable source of growth.

Features and benefits

• Analysis of the antibacterials market across the US, Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and the UK.
• Detailed ten-year sales forecasts for marketed antibacterial drugs in each of the seven major markets.
• Thorough assessments of key marketed antibacterial brands.
• Snapshot of market dynamics in the Rest of World.

Highlights

In 2009, antibacterial sales in the seven major markets totalled $19.6bn. This decline was largely caused by generic erosion of market-leading community brands, such as Zithromax and Klacid, combined with a paucity of new product launches.

Over the next decade, genericization of key brands will drive a significant decline in market value, contributing to a loss of revenues from Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic, Zosyn/Tazocin, and Zyvox alone of $3.2bn by 2019. Combined with growing resistance, this will cause increasing market fragmentation and reduce the potential for “blockbuster” sales.

The late-stage pipeline, much of which is targeting MRSA, will generate revenues totaling nearly $2.0bn by 2019. However, Datamonitor predicts that this upside will be insufficient to offset the decline caused by genericization, and total seven major market sales will fall from $19.6bn in 2009 to $16.4bn in 2019, with a CAGR of -1.8%.

Your key questions answered

• Assess and quantify the market opportunity for antibacterials, from generics to high-priced hospital brands.
• Understand the changing market dynamics of antibacterial drugs and success factors for leading brands.
• Assess the impact of key issues affecting the antibacterials market; generic erosion and growing levels of resistance.
   

Table Of contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor insight into the antibacterials market
Related reports
Upcoming related reports

MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
Market definition for this report
Countries and regions included in this report
Seven major market assessment
Current and future market overview
US
Japan
Five major EU markets
Class analysis
(Untitled sub-section)
Brand analysis
Levofloxacin has emerged as the leading antibacterial drug
Despite generic erosion, levofloxacin will maintain its position as market leader over the next decade
Comparison with previous forecast
Rest of the World snapshot
Generic erosion in the seven major markets and strong growth in the Rest of the World have reduced the revenue gap between the two regions
Led by sales of major brands, emerging markets show strong growth

BRAND DYNAMICS
Overview of competitive landscape
Levaquin remains the market leader
New drugs against MRSA dominate the late-stage pipeline, while there is a lack of candidates for the treatment of Gram-negative infections
Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic (levofloxacin; Johnson & Johnson/Daiichi Sankyo/Sanofi-Aventis)
Despite loss of patent protection, Levaquin/Cravit/Tavanic will remain the market leaders in 2019
Zosyn/Tazocin (piperacillin/tazobactam; Pfizer/Taisho Pharmaceutical)
Despite strong generic erosion, Zosyn and Tazocin will remain key antibacterial brands due to their strong reputation
Zyvox (linezolid; Pfizer)
Despite significant generic erosion, strong brand power and physician familiarity will ensure that Zyvox remains a key brand
Cubicin (daptomycin; Cubist Pharmaceuticals/Novartis/Merck & Co.)
Cubicin will become the leading anti-MRSA drug by 2019
Merrem/Meropen (meropenem; AstraZeneca/Dainippon Sumitomo)
Merrem/Meropen remains one of the few options for the treatment of Gram-negative pathogens
Avelox/Octegra (moxifloxacin; Bayer/Merck & Co.)
Avelox/Octegra sales will decline strongly due to genericization, reliance on the US market, and safety and resistance concerns
Tygacil (tigecycline; Pfizer)
Unmet need for new treatments against Gram-negative bacteria presents a major growth opportunity for Tygacil as the anti-MRSA market becomes crowded
Vibativ (telavancin; Theravance/Astellas Pharma)
Rapid bactericidal activity against MRSA and glycopeptide-tolerant Gram-positive pathogens present a significant growth opportunity for Vibativ
Zienam/Primaxin (imipenem/cilastatin; Merck & Co.)
Increased availability of generics and physician preference for other carbapenems will lead to a steady fall in Zienam/Primaxin sales
Doribax/Finibax (doripenem; Johnson & Johnson/Shionogi & Co.)
Short patent life in the US will hinder uptake of Doribax/Finibax, despite promising activity against dangerous Gram-negative bacteria
Invanz (ertapenem; Merck & Co.)
Invanz’s narrower spectrum and lack of activity against key Gram-negative pathogens position it more for community rather than hospital use

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX A – MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
New product launches
Patent expiries
Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
Standard units
Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
Exchange rates
Forecast methodology

APPENDIX B
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Report methodology

TABLES

Table: Key events impacting the antibacterials market, 2005–19
Table: Sales forecasts for antibacterials in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Table: Comparison of leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major markets and RoW ($m), 2009
Table: Leading branded antibacterial drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Table: Selected antibacterial compounds in the late-stage R&D pipeline , 2011
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Zosyn and Tazocin, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Zyvox, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Cubicin, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Merrem and Meropen, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Avelox and Octegra, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Tygacil, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Vibativ, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Zienam/Primaxin, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Doribax/Finibax, 2010–19
Table: Key factors impacting sales of Invanz, 2010–19
Table: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major markets, 2010–19
Table: Patent expiry dates for antibacterial drugs in the seven major markets, 2010–19

FIGURES

Figure: Sales of key antibacterial brands/molecules in the seven major markets ($m), 2009 and 2019
Figure: Rest of the World versus seven major market sales split for the antibacterials market, 2009
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Levaquin, Cravit, and Tavanic in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zosyn and Tazocin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zyvox in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Cubicin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Merrem and Meropen in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Avelox and Octegra in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Tygacil in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Vibativ in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Zienam/Primaxin in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for Doribax and Finibax in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: 2009 and updated sales forecast for & Co.’s Invanz in the seven major markets ($m), 2009–19
Figure: Methodology for forecasting price to remove impact of currency fluctuations on future trend figure