EpiCast Report: Hepatocellular Carcinoma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

Published: November 2015
No. of Pages: 57
   

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common type of primary liver cancer that arises from the hepatocytes in the liver. HCC is classified by various staging systems such as the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage and Child Pugh stages. The major risk factors for HCC are hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and alcohol abuse. HCC is more common in men than women, averaging between two to four times as many cases in men as in women. This could be due to men being more likely to be infected with HBV and HCV, to consume more alcohol, to smoke cigarettes, or to have increased iron stores.

In the 7MM, GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that the diagnosed incident cases of HCC will increase from 103,308 cases in 2014 to 123,658 cases in 2024 at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 1.97%. Japan had the highest number of diagnosed incident cases of HCC among the 7MM throughout the forecast period. In the 7MM in 2014 there were 38,359 diagnosed incident cases of BCLC stage A, 26,558 cases of BCLC stage B, 26,527 cases of BCLC stage C, and 11,865 cases of BCLC stage D. GlobalData epidemiologists estimated that the 7MM in 2014 had 150,488 five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HCC, 10,835 diagnosed incident cases of HCC with HBV, and 62,140 diagnosed incident cases of HCC with HCV.

The overall increase in the incidence of HCC in the 7MM was mostly driven by population changes, as GlobalData epidemiologists observed very little historical changes in the incidence of HCC. During the forecast period, changes in alcohol use/abuse among men and women may impact the incidence of HCC in the US and UK. Furthermore, the high prevalence of HCV in Italy and Japan will continue to contribute to HCC incidence.

GlobalData's epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident and the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HCC in the 7MM is supported by age- and sex-specific data for the incidence. The one- to five-year relative survival data, which were used for the five-year diagnosed prevalent cases forecast, are supported by country-specific, population-based studies that are representative of the national population in the respective markets.

Scope

  • The Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HCC in the 7MM (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast for the diagnosed incident cases and five-year diagnosed prevalent cases of HCC in these markets. The diagnosed incident cases of HCC are segmented by age (30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70-79 years, =80 years), sex, BCLC stage at diagnosis, and comorbidity with HBV or HCV.
  • The HCC epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
  • The EpiCast Report is in-depth, high quality, transparent and market-driven, providing expert analysis of disease trends in the 7MM.

Reasons to buy

The HCC EpiCast series will allow you to -

  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global HCC market.
  • Quantify patient populations in the global HCC market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups and sex that present the best opportunities for HCC therapeutics in each of the markets covered.
  • Identify the percentage of HCC incident cases by stage at diagnosis and comorbidity with HBV or HCV.

EpiCast Report: Hepatocellular Carcinoma - Epidemiology Forecast to 2024

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
2.2 Related Reports 8
2.3 Upcoming Reports 9

3 Epidemiology 10
3.1 Disease Background 10
3.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 11
3.3 Global Trends 13
3.3.1 Incidence 13
3.3.2 Relative Survival 14
3.3.3 Stage at Diagnosis 16
3.4 Forecast Methodology 17
3.4.1 Sources Used 22
3.4.2 Sources Not Used 25
3.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 26
3.5 Epidemiological Forecast of HCC (2014-2024) 29
3.5.1 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC 29
3.5.2 Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC 31
3.5.3 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident of HCC 33
3.5.4 Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence of HCC 35
3.5.5 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC by BCLC Stages 36
3.5.6 Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC with HBV and HCV Comorbidities 38
3.5.7 Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HCC 40
3.6 Discussion 42
3.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 42
3.6.2 Limitations of the Analysis 43
3.6.3 Strengths of the Analysis 44

4 Appendix 45
4.1 Bibliography 45
4.2 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 49
4.3 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 51
4.4 About the Authors 52
4.4.1 Epidemiologists 52
4.4.2 Reviewers 52
4.4.3 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 53
4.4.4 Global Head of Healthcare 54
4.5 About GlobalData 55
4.6 About EpiCast 55
4.7 Disclaimer 56

List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for HCC 12
Table 2: 7MM, Most Recent One-Year and Five-Year Relative Liver Cancer Survival in Men and Women 15
Table 3: US and Germany, Relative Survival Temporal Trend 15
Table 4: 7MM, BCLC and Child Pugh Stage at Diagnosis, Men and Women (%) 17
Table 5: 7MM, Sources Used for Diagnosed Incidence of HCC 18
Table 6: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used for Diagnosed Incident Cases Segmented by BCLC Clinical Stages 19
Table 7: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HCC 20
Table 8: 7MM, Sources of Epidemiological Data Used to Forecast the Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC with HBV and HCV comorbidities. 21
Table 9: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Both Sexes, Ages ?30 years, N, 2014-2024 30
Table 10: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Both Sexes, N, 2014 32
Table 11: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, N (Row %), 2014 34
Table 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC by BCLC Stage, Ages ?30 Years, N (Row %), 2014 37
Table 13: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC with HBV and HCV, Ages ?30 years, Both Sexes, N, 2014 (Row %) 39
Table 14: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2014-2024 41
Table 15: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOL) Surveyed, By Country 51

List of Figures

Figure 1: 7MM, Diagnosed Incidence Rate of HCC (Cases per 100,000 Population), Ages ?30 Years, Both Sexes, 2004-2013 14
Figure 2: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2014-2024 31
Figure 3: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Both Sexes, N, 2014 33
Figure 4: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, N, 2014 35
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Incidence Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, N, 2014 36
Figure 6: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC by BCLC Stage, Ages ?30 Years, Both Sexes N, 2014 38
Figure 7: 7MM, Diagnosed Incident Cases of HCC with HCV, Ages ?30 Years, N, 2014 40
Figure 8: 7MM, Five-Year Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of HCC, Ages ?30 Years, Both Sexes, N, 2014-2024 42

Published By: GlobalData
Product Code: GlobalData32580


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