The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Published: November 2015
No. of Pages: 35
   

"Handset data revenue growth and fixed broadband revenue in Western Europe (WE) will not fully offset voice and mobile messaging revenue losses, resulting in fixed and mobile revenue decline in the region."

Mobile services revenue in Western Europe (WE) accounted for 16.6% of worldwide mobile service revenue, and 7.7% of mobile connections in 2014. By 2020, we expect the WE revenue share to shrink to 14.4% and the connection share to 5.9%. Mobile retail services accounted for 42.3% of overall WE service revenue in 2014, and this proportion will grow to 43.7% in 2020. However, mobile retail revenue will decline slightly at a CAGR of –1% during the forecast period.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • commentary and trend analysis to support our 5-year forecast for Western Europe (WE)
  • worldwide context, regional analysis and commentary on five countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom (UK)
  • forecasting informed by on-the-ground market experts from our Research and Consulting divisions. We also draw upon Analysys Mason’s Telecoms Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data that sizes European telecoms markets.

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom (UK)
  • Detailed country commentary
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK

The Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2015–2020

Table of Contents

5.Executive summary
6.Executive summary
7.Worldwide trends
8.Worldwide: Developing regions will have the highest revenue growth, but North America will have the largest retail revenue
9.Worldwide: Mobile penetration will increase to 108% by 2020, driven by service take-up in the SSA, EMAP and DVAP regions
10.Worldwide: LTE’s share of connections will be the highest in NA (92%) and DVAP (84%), while SSA will lag behind (5%)
11.Worldwide: Over-the-top (OTT) services and converged bundle services will have a downward pressure on mobile ARPU
12.Regional trends
13.WE: Telecoms revenue will continue to decline, at a CAGR -1.5%, due to market maturity, price competition and OTT services
14.WE: Total penetration will not grow in most countries, but many users will migrate from prepaid to contract plans
15.WE: LTE will rapidly become the dominant mobile technology, boosted by the launch of VoLTE services
16.WE: Next-generation services will dominate the mobile and fixed broadband markets in Western Europe by 2020
17.WE: Smartphones will become the default handset type, with penetration exceeding 100% of the population
18.WE: Declining prices and competition from OTT services will cause ARPU to continue to fall during the forecast period
19.WE: ARPU will decline, offset in part by mobile data services revenue and consolidations
20.Country-level trends
21.France: More smartphones and LTE in the customer base will offset the impact of converged bundles on ARPU Country 2
22.Germany: Quadruple-play offers will put pressure on handset ARPU, and drive users from prepaid to contract deals
23.Italy: LTE technology gained strength in 2015 and the potential merger of 3 Italia and Wind may ease price competition
24.Spain: ARPU will be more resilient as LTE gains momentum, and fixed–mobile bundles may reduce churn
25.UK: The pending mergers of BT and EE, as well as Three and O2, will alter the competitive landscape significantly
26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
27.We have a disciplined process of forecasting; our on-the-ground analysts and consultants collaborate closely to assess market dynamics
28.Our forecasts are informed by primary and secondary research for data collection, a rigorous methodology and our analysis of external drivers
29.A robust and comparable set of historical data is the starting point for our forecasts; this involves three main activities
30.About the authors and Analysys Mason
31.About the authors
32.About Analysys Mason
33.Research from Analysys Mason
34.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures:

Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 2: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2014–2020) and market size by total retail revenue (2020), by region, worldwide
Figure 3: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), worldwide, 2014 and 2020
Figure 5: Mobile ARPU by region and worldwide, 2010–2020
Figure 6: Telecoms retail mobile revenue by service type and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Western Europe, 2014–2020
Figure 9a: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), northern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 9b: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), southern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 10: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G’s share of connections, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2020
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), Western Europe, 2014 and 2020
Figure 13a: Mobile ARPU by country, northern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 13b: Mobile ARPU by country, southern Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 14: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2010–2020
Figure 16: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Western Europe
Figure 17: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, France, 2014–2020
Figure 18: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Germany, 2014–2020
Figure 19: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Italy, 2014–2020
Figure 20: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, Spain, 2014–2020
Figure 21: Total service revenue, data revenue and CAGR, UK, 2014–2020
Figure 22: Data, research principles and external factors that inform our forecasting methodology

Published By: Analysys Mason
Product Code: Analysys Mason293


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