Oil Market Outlook in Libya, 2010

Report Summary

This profile is the essential source for top-level energy industry data and information. The report provides an overview of each of the key sub-segments of the energy industry in Libya. It details the market structure, regulatory environment, infrastructure and provides historical and forecasted statistics relating to the supply/demand balance for each of the key sub-segments. It also provides information relating to the crude oil assets (oil fields, refineries, pipelines and storage terminals) in Libya. The report compares the investment environment in Libya with other countries in the region. The profiles of the major companies operating in the crude oil sector in Libya together with the latest news and deals are also included in the report.

Scope

• Historic and forecast data relating to production, consumption, imports, exports and reserves are provided for each industry sub-segment for the period 1996-2020.
• Historical and forecast data and information for all the major oil fields, refineries, pipelines and storage terminals in Libya for the period 2000-2013.
• Operator and equity details for major crude oil assets in Libya.
• Key information relating to market regulations, key energy assets and the key companies operating in the Libya’s energy industry.
• Information on the top companies in the Libya including business description, strategic analysis, and financial information.
• Product and brand updates, strategy changes, R&D projects, corporate expansions and contractions and regulatory changes.
• Key mergers and acquisitions, partnerships, private equity and venture capital investments, and IPOs.

Reasons to buy

• Gain a strong understanding of the country’s energy market.
• Facilitate market analysis and forecasting of future industry trends.
• Facilitate decision making on the basis of strong historic and forecast production, reserves and capacity data.
• Assess your competitor’s major crude oil assets and their performance.
• Analyze the latest news and financial deals in the oil sector of each country.
• Develop strategies based on the latest operational, financial, and regulatory events.
• Do deals with an understanding of how competitors are financed, and the mergers and partnerships that have shaped the market.
• Identify and analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the leading companies in the country.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 10

2 Libya Energy sector 11
2.1 Libya Energy sector, Market Overview 11
2.2 Libya Energy sector, Crude Oil 12
2.2.1 Libya Crude Oil, Overview 12
2.2.2 Libya Crude Oil, Supply and Demand Balance 12
2.2.3 Libya Crude Oil, Regulatory Structure 18
2.2.4 Libya Crude Oil, Infrastructure 18

3 Libya, Fiscal Regime 20
3.1 Libya Petroleum Fiscal Environment 20
3.1.1 Governing Law 20
3.1.2 Licensing Authority 20
3.1.3 State Participation 20
3.2 License Terms 20
3.2.1 Exploration License (EL) Duration 20
3.2.2 Relinquishment during Exploration 20
3.2.3 Exploration obligation 20
3.2.4 Production Rights, Area & Duration 20
3.3 Key Fiscal Terms 21
3.3.1 Royalty 21
3.3.2 Bonus 21
3.3.3 Cost Recovery 21
3.3.4 Profit Sharing 21
3.3.5 Taxation 22
3.3.6 Domestic Obligation 22
3.3.7 Deductions and Depreciation 22
3.4 Libya, Fiscal System - Economic Modeling Methodology 23
3.4.1 Economic Modeling Methodology 24
3.5 Libya, Fiscal System - Sample Economics 25
3.6 Libya, Fiscal System - Sample Asset Valuation 26

4 Libya Oil Upstream Investment Environment Benchmarking 27
4.1 Introduction 27
4.2 The Overall Ranking 27
4.3 Upstream Fiscal Attractiveness 27
4.3.1 Maximum Government Take Index 28
4.3.2 Maximum State Participation 29
4.3.3 Maximum Domestic Market Obligation 29
4.4 Oil Sector Performance 29
4.4.1 Exploration Activity 31
4.4.2 Oil Production 32
4.4.3 Oil Reserves 32
4.4.4 Oil Consumption 32
4.4.5 Refining Industry 33
4.5 Economic Performance 33
4.5.1 GDP Growth Index 34
4.5.2 FDI Confidence Index 34
4.5.3 Balance of Trade Index 35
4.6 Socio-Political Performance 35
4.6.1 Democracy Index 36
4.6.2 Governance Index 36

5 Libya Exploration and Production Sector 37
5.1 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Country Snapshot 37
5.1.1 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Key Data 37
5.1.2 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Crude Oil Assets Map 37
5.2 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Crude Oil Production 38
5.2.1 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Crude Oil-Historical Production 38
5.2.2 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Crude Oil Production by Assets 39
5.2.3 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production by Company 39
5.2.4 Libya Exploration and Production Oil Sector, Market Share based on Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production 40
5.3 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Crude Oil Forecasts 41
5.3.1 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Gross Crude Oil Forecasted Production 41
5.4 Libya Exploration And Production Sector, Crude Oil Asset Details 42
5.4.1 Libya Exploration And Production Sector, Active Crude Oil Asset Details 42
5.4.2 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Planned Crude Oil Asset Details 43
5.5 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Major Oil Discoveries 43
5.5.1 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Number of Oil Discoveries, 2004- 2009 43
5.5.2 Libya Exploration And Production Sector, Oil Discovery Details 44
5.6 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Recent Discoveries 46
5.6.1 Jul 20, 2010: Medco Energi Discovers Additional Oil At N1-47/02 Well In Libya 46
5.6.2 Jun 11, 2010: TPAO Announces Oil Discovery At C1-147/03 Well In Murzuq Basin, Libya 46
5.6.3 Apr 28, 2010: Sonatrach, NOC Announce New Oil Discovery At Ghadamis Basin In Libya 46
5.6.4 Jan 29, 2010: TatNeft Finds Oil At B1-82/04 New Field Wildcat In Ghadamis Basin, Libya 47
5.6.5 Jan 21, 2010: NOC Announces New Oil Discovery At YYYY1-6 New Field Wildcat Well In Sirte Basin, Libya 47
5.7 Libya Exploration and Production Sector, Drilling and Production Updates 47
5.7.1 Sep 16, 2010: ExxonMobils's Deepwater Exploration Well Commercially Not Viable 47
5.7.2 Aug 11, 2010: BP Delays Exploration Offshore Libya 47
5.7.3 Jul 24, 2010: BP To Start Drilling Program In Offshore Libya Shortly 48
5.7.4 Apr 22, 2010: Tatneft Flows Oil At A1-82/01 Well In Ghadamis Basin, Libya 48
5.7.5 Mar 24, 2010: Al-Hourouj's Crude Oil Production Increases In 2009 48

6 Libya FPSO Industry 49
6.1 Libya FPSO Industry, FPSO Capacity Details by Vessel 49
6.2 Libya FPSO Industry, FPSO Vessel Specifications 49

7 Libya Pipeline Sector 50
7.1 Libya Pipeline Sector, Key Data 50
7.2 Libya Pipeline Sector, An Overview 50
7.3 Libya Pipeline Sector, Comparision of Key Crude Oil Pipeline Companies 50
7.4 Libya Pipeline Sector, Petroleum Product Pipeline Companies 51
7.5 Libya Pipeline Sector, Crude Oil Pipelines 52
7.6 Libya Pipeline Sector, Petroleum Product Pipelines 54

8 Libya Refining Sector 55
8.1 Libya Refining Sector, Key Data 55
8.2 Libya Refining Sector, An Overview 55
8.2.1 Libya Refining Sector, Total Refining Capacity 55
8.3 Libya Refining Sector, Capacity- Wise Market Share by Company 56
8.4 Libya Refining Sector, Crude Distillation Unit Capacity 57

9 Libya Oil and Chemicals Storage Sector 58
9.1 Libya Oil and Chemicals Storage Sector, Key Data 58
9.1.1 Libya Oil and Chemicals Storage Sector, An Overview 58
9.1.2 LibyaOil and Chemicals Storage Sector, Total Storage Capacity 58
9.2 Libya Oil and Chemicals Storage Sector, Capacity- Wise Market Share by Company 59
9.3 Libya Oil and Chemicals Storage Sector, Storage Capacity 60

10 Profile of Eni S.p.A. 61
10.1 Eni S.p.A., Key Information 61
10.2 Eni S.p.A., Company Overview 61
10.3 Eni S.p.A., Business Description 61
10.3.1 Business Overview 61
10.3.2 Engineering and Construction 62
10.3.3 Exploration & Production 63
10.3.4 Gas & Power 64
10.3.5 Others 66
10.3.6 Petrochemicals 66
10.3.7 Refining and Marketing 67
10.4 Eni S.p.A., SWOT Analysis 68
10.4.1 Overview 68
10.4.2 Eni S.p.A. Strengths 69
10.4.3 Eni S.p.A. Weaknesses 71
10.4.4 Eni S.p.A. Opportunities 71
10.4.5 Eni S.p.A. Threats 72

11 Profile of TOTAL S.A. 74
11.1 TOTAL S.A., Key Information 74
11.2 TOTAL S.A., Company Overview 74
11.3 TOTAL S.A., Business Description 74
11.3.1 Business Overview 74
11.3.2 Chemicals 75
11.3.3 Downstream 76
11.3.4 Upstream 77
11.4 TOTAL S.A., SWOT Analysis 79
11.4.1 Overview 79
11.4.2 TOTAL S.A. Strengths 79
11.4.3 TOTAL S.A. Weaknesses 81
11.4.4 TOTAL S.A. Opportunities 81
11.4.5 TOTAL S.A. Threats 83

12 Profile of Repsol YPF, S.A. 85
12.1 Repsol YPF, S.A., Key Information 85
12.2 Repsol YPF, S.A., Company Overview 85
12.3 Repsol YPF, S.A., Business Description 85
12.3.1 Business Overview 85
12.3.2 Downstream 86
12.3.3 Gas Natural SDG 87
12.3.4 LNG 88
12.3.5 Upstream 89
12.3.6 YPF 90
12.4 Repsol YPF, S.A., SWOT Analysis 91
12.4.1 Overview 91
12.4.2 Repsol YPF, S.A. Strengths 92
12.4.3 Repsol YPF, S.A. Weaknesses 93
12.4.4 Repsol YPF, S.A. Opportunities 94
12.4.5 Repsol YPF, S.A. Threats 95

13 Financial Deals Landscape 96
13.1 Detailed Deal Summary 96
13.1.1 Partnerships 96
13.1.2 Asset Transactions 97

 14 Recent Developments 100
14.1 Strategy and Business Expansion 100
14.1.1 Jul 19, 2010: Zorco To Get Partner For Libya Refinery By 2010 100
14.2 Other Significant Developments 100
14.2.1 Jul 30, 2010: Libya's Oil Reserves Rise To 46 Billion Barrels In H1 2010 100
14.2.2 Jun 14, 2010: Libya Seeks BP Safety Assurances On Deepwater Drilling In Mediterranean 100
14.2.3 Apr 12, 2010: Eni, Gazprom Discuss South Stream And Upstream Projects 101
14.2.4 Apr 05, 2010: Medco Energi Becomes Operator Of Area 47 Oil Block In Libya 101
14.2.5 Mar 25, 2010: RWE Dea Completes Seismic Campaign In Concession Area 58, Libya 101
14.2.6 Jan 21, 2010: Libya Set To Invest $1 Billion In Uganda Oil Refinery 102
14.2.7 Jan 07, 2010: Geotrace Completes Onboard Data Processing Offshore Libya 102

15 Appendix 103
15.1 Methodology 103
15.1.1 Coverage 103
15.1.2 Secondary Research 104
15.1.3 Primary Research 104
15.1.4 E&P Forecasts 105
15.1.5 Midstream Forecasts 106
15.1.6 Expert Panel Validation 106
15.2 Contact Us 106
15.3 About GlobalData 107
15.4 Disclaimer 107

1.1 List of Tables

Table 1: Libya, Historic and Forecast Production and Consumption of Crude Oil, 1996-2020 13
Table 2: Libya, Historic and Forecast Exports of Crude Oil, 1996-2020 15
Table 3: Libya, Historic Reserves of Crude Oil, 1996-2009 17
Table 4: Libya, Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Indicative Profit Sharing, 2009 21
Table 5: Libya, Base Asset Remaining NPV, Sensitivity to Discount Rates, Mid 2009 26
Table 6: North Africa, Investment Benchmarking, Overall Country Rankings, July 2010 27
Table 7: North Africa, Investment Benchmarking, Upstream Fiscal Attractiveness, July 2010 28
Table 8: North Africa, Investment Benchmarking, Oil Sector Performance, July 2010 29
Table 9: North Africa, Investment Benchmarking, Economic Performance, July 2010 33
Table 10: North Africa, Country Standings, Economic Performance, July 2010 33
Table 11: North Africa, Investment Benchmarking, Socio-Political Performance, July 2010 35
Table 12: North Africa, Country Standings, Socio-Political Performance, July 2010 35
Table 13: Libya, Crude Oil Key Statistics, 2009 37
Table 14: Libya, Total Gross Crude Oil Production (MMBBLs), 2002-2009 38
Table 15: Libya, Gross Crude Oil Production (MMBBLs), by Assets, 2002-2009 39
Table 16: Libya, Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production by Company (MMBBLs), 2002-2009 39
Table 17: Libya, Market Share (%) based on Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production, 2002-2009 40
Table 18: Libya, Gross Crude Oil Production (MMBBLs), Forecast by Assets, 2010- 2015 41
Table 19: Libya, Active Oil Field Asset Details 42
Table 20: Libya, Planned Oil Field Asset Details 43
Table 21: Libya, Number of Oil Discoveries, 2004-2009 43
Table 22: Libya, Oil Discovery Details, 2004-2009 44
Table 23: Libya, Oil Discovery Details, 2004-2009 (Contd.1) 45
Table 24: Libya FPSO Industry, FPSO Oil Production Capacities, 2009 49
Table 25: Libya FPSO Industry, FPSO Vessel Specifications, 2009 49
Table 26: Libya, Pipeline Key Statistics, 2009 50
Table 27: Libya, Crude Oil Pipeline Length by Company (Km), 2009 50
Table 28: Libya, Petroleum Product Pipeline Length by Company (Km), 2009 51
Table 29: Libya, Crude Oil Pipelines, 2009 52
Table 30: Libya, Crude Oil Pipelines, 2009 (Contd.1) 53
Table 31: Libya, Petroleum Product Pipelines, 2009 54
Table 32: Libya, Refinery Key Statistics, 2009 55
Table 33: Libya, Total Refining Capacity (MMTPA), 2000- 2013 55
Table 34: Libya, Refining Capacity by Company (MMTPA), 2000-2013 56
Table 35: Libya, Crude Distillation Unit Capacity (MMTPA), 2000-2013 57
Table 36: Libya, Oil and Chemicals Storage Key Statistics, 2009 58
Table 37: Libya, Total Oil and Chemicals Storage Capacity (Thousand M3), 2000- 2013 58
Table 38: Libya, Oil and Chemicals Storage Capacity by Company (Thousand M3), 2000-2013 59
Table 39: Libya, Oil and Chemicals Storage Capacity (Thousand M3), 2000-2013 60
Table 40: Eni S.p.A., Key Facts 61
Table 41: Eni S.p.A., SWOT Analysis 69
Table 42: TOTAL S.A., Key Facts 74
Table 43: TOTAL S.A., SWOT Analysis 79
Table 44: Repsol YPF, S.A., Key Facts 85
Table 45: Repsol YPF, S.A., SWOT Analysis 91
Table 46: Eni To Form A Joint Venture With National Oil 96
Table 47: National Oil To Form A Joint Venture With Trusta 96
Table 48: Madison Bay Holdings Acquires Oil And Gas Leases And Refinery Licenses In Libya 97
Table 49: Woodside Petroleum Plans To Sell Its Onshore Assets In Libya 98
Table 50: Oil India To Acquire Oil Producing Blocks 99

1.2 List of Figures

Figure 1: Libya, Energy Sector Split By Fuel Type, 2009 11
Figure 2: Libya, Crude Oil Production And Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 1996-2020 14
Figure 3: Libya, Crude Oil Exports (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 1996-2020 16
Figure 4: Libya, Crude Oil Reserves (Million Barrels), 1996-2009 18
Figure 5: Libya, Full Field Economics, Sample Cash Flows, 1969-2030 23
Figure 6: Libya, Full Field Economics, Government and Contractor Takes 25
Figure 7: Libya, Full Field Economics, Post Tax Cash Flow vs Gross Revenue 25
Figure 8: Libya, Full Field Economics, Project Post Tax Cash Flows At Various Discount Rates 26
Figure 9: North Africa, Country Standings, Upstream Fiscal Attractiveness, July 2010 28
Figure 10: North Africa, Country Standings, Oil Sector Performance, by Reserves-Exploration & Production, July 2010 30
Figure 11: North Africa, Country Standings, Oil Sector Performance, by Production-Consumption & Refining, July 2010 31
Figure 12: North Africa, Country Standings, Exploration Blocks Awarded, July 2010 32
Figure 13: North Africa, Country Standings, Economic Performance, July 2010 34
Figure 14: North Africa, Country Standings, Socio-Political Performance, July 2010 36
Figure 15: Libya, Crude Oil Assets Map, 2009 37
Figure 16: Libya, Total Gross Crude Oil Production (MMBBLs), 2002-2009 38
Figure 17: Libya, Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production (MMBBLs), by Company, 2002-2009 40
Figure 18: Libya, Market Share (%) based on Gross Equity Weighted Crude Oil Production, 2009 41
Figure 19: Libya, Number of Oil Discoveries, 2004- 2009 44
Figure 20: Libya, Crude Oil Pipeline Length by Company (Km), 2009 51
Figure 21: Libya, Total Refining Capacity (MMTPA), 2000- 2013 56
Figure 22: Libya, Refining Capacity by Company (MMTPA), 2009 57
Figure 23: Libya, Total Oil and Chemicals Storage Capacity (Thousand M3), 2000- 2013 59
Figure 24: Libya, Oil and Chemicals Storage Capacity by Company (Thousand M3), 2000-2013 60