The Titanium Age:Markets, Low Cost Processes and Latent Demand

Report Summary

Thintri, Inc. announces the release of a new market study, The Titanium Age: Markets, Low Cost Processes and Latent Demand. This update of Thintri’s earlier titanium study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range of titanium products like scrap, sponge, ingot, plate, etc., and effects of the recent recession and recovery. The report also discusses emerging market opportunities through the maturing of technologies that promise to reduce the cost of titanium extraction, manufacturing, machining and welding. Forecasts are provided for both traditional and potential new titanium markets in a number of key sectors.

Titanium, a resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has been hobbled by high costs and volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industry-wide inefficiencies.

Titanium has the highest strength to density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and is highly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highly biocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical processing and general industry.

In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to new applications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium tightened considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply was attributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, which reduced the supply of scrap. These factors led to an extraordinary runup in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simply unable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in new markets where it offers substantial long term cost savings.

In response, suppliers of titanium sponge rapidly moved to expand their output. Very soon, however, markets and prices abruptly dropped with the recession.
Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing technologies have continued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatly reduced cost. These processes, some of which are recently commercialized or will be soon, reduce costs in extraction, machining, welding, manufacture, and other segments.
A likely scenario is that within a few years or so, several of these technologies will impact the costs of doing business in titanium. The promise of supply stability and relatively low prices could create an opening whereby new markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications. Alternatively, suppliers of low cost titanium may merely sell their product for high prices and greater profits. In that sense, low cost production processes could a substantial investment opportunity..

Understand the Markets

Thintri’s new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets, the effects of the current economy, t, f and the crisis in price and supply constraints. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces that will determine the outcome of today’s price/supply fluctuations are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpected market opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some of them unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium.

The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Government and academia, as well as a broad range of published materials.

Executive Summary

    E1 Introduction
    E2 Background: Titanium
    E3 The Titanium Industry Today
    E4 Supply and Capacity Issues
    E5 Price Trends
    E6 Demand Outlook
    E7 Lead Times
    E9 Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes
    E10 Effect of a New Low-Cost Player
    E11 Latent Demand
Part 1: Titanium Background
    1.1 Overview
    1.2 Titanium in Industry
    1.3 History
    1.4 Titanium Production
    1.5 Issues with Titanium

Part 2: Industry Landscape

    2.1 The Demand Side

    2.1.1 The Aerospace Sector

    2.1.1.1 Titanium Deployment in Aircraft
    2.1.1.2 The Evolving Aerospace Market
    2.1.1.3 Regulations and Certification
    2.1.2.1 Industrial Markets

    2.1.2.1.1 Chemical Processing
    2.1.2.1.2 Other Industry and Manufacture

    2.1.5.1 Passenger Cars
    2.1.5.2 Trucks and Heavy Vehicles

    2.2 The Supply Side: Capacity

    2.2.2.1 Sponge
    2.2.2.2 Scrap

    2.2.2.2.1 Alloying

    2.3 Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices
    2.4 Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price Negotiations

Part 3: Cost Issues, Lead Times and Today’s Market Outlook

    3.1 Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure
    3.2 Price Behavior and Forecasts

    3.2.1 Sponge
    3.2.2 Scrap
    3.2.3 Melt Products

    3.2.3.1 Slab
    3.2.3.2 Ingot
    3.2.3.3 Electrodes
    3.2.3.4 Plate

    3.2.3.4.1 Plate Prices
    3.2.3.4.2 Toll Rolling

    3.3 Today’s Market Outlook

    3.3.1 Effects of the Recession
    3.3.2 Recovery of the Titanium Industry

    3.4 Lead Times

Part 4: Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium

    4.1 Introduction
    4.2 Raw Material Issues
    4.3 Composition and Alloying
    4.4 Quality, Purity, Performance
    4.5 The Powder Advantage

    4.5.1 MIM

    4.6 Manufacture & Fabrication
    4.7 Machining
    4.8 Welding 75
    4.9 Titanium Process Commercialization
    4.10 Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player

Part 5: Latent Demand and Market Opportunities

    5.1 Automotive Markets

    5.1.1 Trucks and Commercial Vehicles

    5.1.1.1 Turbocharger Compressor Wheels
    5.1.1.2 Valve Train
    5.1.1.3 Connecting Rods
    5.1.1.4 Exhaust Systems
    5.1.1.5 Suspensions

    5.1.2 Opportunities in Mass Market Autos

    5.1.2.1 Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs
    5.1.2.2 Connecting Rods
    5.1.2.3 Exhaust Systems
    5.1.2.4 Suspensions

    5.1.3 Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles
    5.1.4 Regulation and Fuel Economy
    5.1.5 Economics
    5.1.6 Latent Automotive Demand

    5.2 General Industry, Oil & gas, Mining, etc

    5.2.1 Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc
    5.2.2 Oil & Gas, Mining
    5.2.3 Energy and Power Generation
    5.2.4 Pulp & Paper
    5.2.5 Latent Industrial Demand

    5.3 Aerospace
    5.4 Defense

    5.4.1 Armor

    5.4.1.1 Armoring Vehicles
    5.4.1.2 Non-Vehicle Armor
    5.4.1.3 Fuel Economy
    5.4.1.4 Procurement Issues

    5.4.2 Naval Applications
    5.4.3 Latent Defense Demand

    5.5 Medical Markets

    5.5.1 Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma Fixtures, etc
    5.5.2 Surgical Instruments
    5.5.3 Latent Medical Demand

    5.6 Consumer Markets

    5.6.1 Established Consumer Applications

    5.6.1.1 Sporting Goods
    5.6.1.2 Jewelry
    5.6.1.3 Architecture
    5.6.1.4 Marine Markets
    5.6.1.5 Price and Supply Issues
    5.6.1.6 Latent Consumer Demand

Figures

    Figure ES-1 Sponge Capacity by Country
    Figure ES-2 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries
    Figure ES-3 Titanium Use by Aircraft Type
    Figure ES-4 Sample Plate Price Trends
    Figure ES-5 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast
    Figure ES-6 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast
    Figure ES-7 Global Automotive Latent Demand
    Figure ES-8 Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor
    Figure ES-9 Global Industrial Latent Demand
    Figure 1-1 Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium versus Titanium in Pigment
    Figure 2-1 Industrial Titanium Markets
    Figure 2-2 Sponge Capacity Growth by Country
    Figure 2-3 Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global
    Figure 2-4 Scrap Availability Trends
    Figure 2-5 Melt Product Capacity Trends
    Figure 2-6 Global Ingot Melting Capacity by Company, 2006
    Figure 2-7 Geographic Trends, Mill Products: Demand, 2006, 2015
    Figure 2-8 Mill Product Capacity Trends
    Figure 2-9 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries
    Figure 2-10 Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type
    Figure 3-1 Sponge Price Trends
    Figure 3-2 Scrap Price Trends, Turnings
    Figure 3-3 Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable
    Figure 3-4 Scrap Price Trends, Clips
    Figure 3-5 Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium
    Figure 3-6 Slab Price Trends
    Figure 3-7 Ingot Price Trends
    Figure 3-8 Electrode Price Trends
    Figure 3-9 Forging/VAR Stock Price Trends
    Figure 3-10 Plate Price Trends, B265 CP
    Figure 3-11 Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy
    Figure 3-12 Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP and 4911 Alloy Plate
    Figure 3-13 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast
    Figure 3-14 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast
    Figure 5-1 Overall Latent Demand
    Figure 5-2 Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets
    Figure 5-3 Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets
    Figure 5-4 Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand
    Figure 5-5 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor
    Figure 5-6 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other
    Figure 5-7 Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants
    Figure 5-8 Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments
    Figure 5-9 Global Latent Demand, Consumer Markets
 

Tables

    Table 2-1 Current Titanium Markets
    Table 2-2 Commercial Automobile Titanium Components
    Table 5-1 Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive Applications
    Table 5-2 Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain