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Commercial Insight: Antihormonal Cancer Therapies - Leading brands strive to minimize generic sales erosion

Published: July 2010
No. of Pages: 111
  

Introduction

Antihormonal cancer therapies are a class of drugs used predominantly in the treatment of breast cancer and prostate cancer. The high incidence of these tumor types translates into a significant commercial potential for drug developers. Collectively, the antihormonal therapy cancer brands generated sales of about $7.0 billion in the seven major pharmaceutical markets in 2009.

Scope

  • In-depth analysis of the current and future antihormonal therapies market across the US, 5EU and Japan, plus a rest of world snapshot
  • Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts for brands and generics from 2009 to 2019
  • Assessment of the leading cancer brands and drug classes to identify key success factors within this sector
  • Evaluation of the strategies of leading players in the antihormonals market

Highlights

The antihormonals market was worth $7.0 billion in 2009 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets. Datamonitor forecasts the antihormonals market will shrink marginally in the forecast period 20092019, at a CAGR of negative 0.7%.

In 2019 the top three brands in terms of forecast sales will be Arimidex, Lupron (leuprolide; Takeda/Abbott) and Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca). Despite losing around 54% of its current sales value to generic competitors, Arimidex will retain its market leading position.

In a mature market, the importance of product lifecycle management is high. AstraZeneca was the key player in the market in 2009, with an antihormonals portfolio valued at over $3.2 billion. With successful lifecycle management and a considerable investment in marketing activities, AstraZeneca has built a strong brand presence for its products.

Reasons to Purchase

  • Quantify the performance of each of the marketed antihormonal therapy cancer brands in the seven major markets over the period 2009 to 2019
  • Acquire a detailed account of antihormonal therapy cancer brand dynamics and the events that drive and limit their market growth
  • Benchmark antihormonal therapy cancer brands against their generics and rest of class and align their 7MM performance with a rest of world snapshot

 

    Commercial Insight: Antihormonal Cancer Therapies - Leading brands strive to minimize generic sales erosion

    Table Of Contents
     
    Overview
    Catalyst
    Summary
    About Datamonitor healthcare
    About the Oncology pharmaceutical analysis team
     
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
    Strategic scoping and focus
    Datamonitor insight into the antihormonal cancer therapies market
    Related reports
    Upcoming related reports
    Table of Contents
     
    MARKET DEFINITION
    Definition of the cancer market
    Antihormonal therapies by ATC class
    L2A3 - Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonists
    L2B1 - Anti-estrogens
    L2B2 - Anti-androgens
    L2B3 - Aromatase inhibitors
    L2B9 - Other hormone antagonists
     
    MARKET OVERVIEW
    Seven major markets
    Current and future market overview
    The antihormonals market will shrink marginally in the forecast period
    Patent expiries of leading antihormonal brands are set to occur within the next 5 years
    The US will suffer the greatest impact of generic erosion, losing around 25% of its value over the forecast period
    The aromatase inhibitors will continue to be the leading drug class in 2019
    The current leading antihormonal brands will suffer generic sales erosion but will maintain a high level of sales
    The antihormonal therapies market will shrink from $7.0 billion in 2009 to $6.5 billion in 2019 across the seven major pharmaceutical markets
    Opportunities and threats
    Opportunity 1: aging population will result in increasing cancer incidence
    Opportunity 2: oncology therapy sales continue to experience strong growth
    Opportunity 3: high levels of unmet need
    Threat 1: Pharma's transition towards specialist secondary care indications may further competition in the oncology market
    Threat 2: the cost of drug development continues to rise
    Threat 3: ongoing cost-containment measures
    US
    Current and future market assessment
    The US antihormonals market will suffer the greatest impact of generic sales erosion
    Opportunities and threats
    Opportunity 1: the US's large population and high healthcare expenditure will continue to offer commercial opportunities for drug developers
    Opportunity 2: healthcare reform will boost the number of insured in the US
    Opportunity 3: closure of the Medicare Part D coverage gap is good news for branded Pharma
    Threat 1: growing regulatory pressures increase costs and decrease market penetration for Pharma
    Threat 2: patent expiries and the resulting generic competition will erode branded sales revenues
    Threat 3: the US health reform law will intensify cost-containment pressures
    Japan
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonals market in Japan is forecast to grow over the forecast period
    Opportunities and threats
    Opportunity 1: the aging population represents a large and growing patient base
    Opportunity 2: generic sales erosion remains low in Japan
    Opportunity 3: decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs could accelerate new launches
    Threat 1: government-enforced biennial cuts continue to have a negative effect on market growth
    Threat 2: healthcare proposal to change current pricing system will be of limited benefit to Japanese Pharma
    Threat 3: encouraging decrease in lag times for launch of new drugs
    Five major European markets (5EU)
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonals therapies market in the five European countries will show marginal growth
    The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $2.6 billion in 2009 to $2.7 billion in 2019 in the five major European markets
    Opportunities and threats
    Opportunity 1: EU Cancer Task Force will improve the availability of information while generating funds for research
    Opportunity 2: reorganization of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) expected to streamline EU regulatory process
    Threat 1: new European drug price reductions are likely to affect pharma industry growth
    Threat 2: higher generic uptake in less mature EU markets will impact branded sales revenues
    Threat 3: EC inquiry into delays in generics market entry will have wide-ranging ramifications for the branded and generics industry
    Threat 4: Spain's price cuts and reference groups are driving drug prices down
    Threat 5: new low reimbursement rate created in France signals the growing pressure for cost-containment
    Threat 6: NICE will remain a significant hurdle to commercialization of cancer drugs in the UK, despite relaxation of its cost-effectiveness criteria
    Threat 7: Germany's new cost-effectiveness analysis system could add to the downward pressure on drug prices
    Threat 8: additional cuts to the price of oncology drugs in Italy are impending under its pay-for-performance scheme
    France
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonal therapies market in France will peak at around $654m in 2010.
    Germany
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonals therapies market will grow from $727m in 2009 to $835m in 2019 in Germany
    Italy
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $484m in 2009 to $512m in 2019 in Italy
    Spain
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonals market in Spain will marginally shrink from $418m in 2009 to $396m in 2019 in Spain
    UK
    Current and future market assessment
    The antihormonal therapies market will grow from $333m in 2009 to $348m in 2019 in the UK
    Rest of the world snapshot
    Current market assessment
    Rest of the world sales represent 18% of the global antihormonals market
    Opportunities and threats
    Opportunity 1: incidence of cancer is forecast to increase in the BRIC countries
    Opportunity 2: emerging markets continue to attract pharma companies despite challenges
    Threat 1: cost of new therapies is a barrier to market penetration
     
    BRAND DYNAMICS
    Overview of competitive landscape
    Arimidex, Lupron and Casodex will be the top three antihormonal brands in 10 years time
    Drivers of brand choice
    Efficacy and toxicity are the most important drivers of brand choice
    Trends in marketing strategies
    Marketing strategy for leading brands
    Patient information and support programs
    Direct-to-consumer advertising
    Arimidex (anastrozole; AstraZeneca)
    Drug profile
    Product positioning
    SWOT analysis
    Brand forecast to 2019
    Arimidex set to lose 54% of its current sales value to generic competitors
    Lupron (leuprolide; Takeda/Abbott)
    Drug profile
    Product positioning
    SWOT analysis
    Brand forecast to 2019
    Lupron will be the top selling antihormonal therapy in 2019, with sales in excess of $1 billion
    Casodex (bicalutamide; AstraZeneca)
    Drug profile
    Product positioning
    SWOT analysis
    Brand forecast to 2019
    Patent expiries set to hamper sales of this class-leading brand
    KEY DEVELOPERS
    Strategic overview
    Trends in corporate strategy
    Strategic lifecycle management is essential in the antihormonals market
    Commercialization partnerships are common for smaller players
    AstraZeneca
    Corporate strategy
    Oncology antihormonals portfolio assessment
    Takeda
    Corporate strategy
    Oncology antihormonals portfolio assessment
    Portfolio assessment of other leading companies
     
    BIBLIOGRAPHY
    Journal papers
    Websites
    Datamonitor reports
    Other
     
    APPENDIX A - MARKET ASSUMPTIONS
    Forecasting assumptions
    New product launches
    Patent expiries
    Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
    Standard units
    Country group definitions
    Rest of the World
    The 'all other EU countries' group
    The 'Other non-EU countries' group
    Forecast methodology
    Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
    Exchange rates
    Report methodology
     
    APPENDIX B
    About Datamonitor
    About Datamonitor Healthcare
    About the Oncology analysis team
    Disclaimer
     
    List of Tables
     
    Table 1: Definition of the cancer market, 2010
    Table 2: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the seven major pharmaceutical markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 3: Key events impacting the antihormonal therapies market in the seven major markets, 2009-2019
    Table 4: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the seven major markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 5: Summary of opportunities and threats that will impact the antihormonals market across the seven major markets, 2009-2019
    Table 6: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the US ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 7: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the US in 2009 and 2019
    Table 8: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the US ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 9: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market in the US, 2009-2019
    Table 10: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in Japan ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 11: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Japan in 2009 and 2019
    Table 12: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Japan ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 13: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market in Japan, 2009-2019
    Table 14: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the five major EU markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 15: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the five major EU markets in 2009 and 2019
    Table 16: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the five major EU markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 17: Summary of opportunities and threats to impact the antihormonals market in the five major EU markets, 2009-2019
    Table 18: Risk-sharing agreements between NICE and selected pharma companies in the UK, 2009-2010
    Table 19: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in France ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 20: Top 5 branded antihormonals in France in 2009 and 2019
    Table 21: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in France ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 22: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in Germany ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 23: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Germany in 2009 and 2019
    Table 24: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Germany ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 25: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in Italy ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 26: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Italy in 2009 and 2019
    Table 27: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Italy ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 28: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in Spain ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 29: Top 5 branded antihormonals in Spain in 2009 and 2019
    Table 30: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in Spain ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 31: Sales and growth of antihormonal therapy drug classes in the UK ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 32: Top 5 branded antihormonals in the UK in 2009 and 2019
    Table 33: Antihormonal therapy sales forecasts in the UK ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 34: Comparison of antihormonal drug class sales in the US, Japan, five major EU markets and Rest of the world markets ($m), 2009
    Table 35: Leading branded antihormonal therapy drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 36: Marketing strategies employed by companies behind the top three antihormonal brands, 2010
    Table 37: Arimidex (anastrozole) - drug profile, 2010
    Table 38: Factors impacting revenues of Arimidex, 2009-2019
    Table 39: Lupron (leuprolide) - drug profile, 2010
    Table 40: Factors impacting the revenues of Lupron, 2009-2019
    Table 41: Casodex (bicalutamide) - drug profile, 2010
    Table 42: Factors impacting the revenues of Casodex, 2009-2019
    Table 43: Leading companies in the antihormonals market in the seven major pharmaceutical markets ($m), 2009-2019
    Table 44: Assessment of AstraZeneca's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2010
    Table 45: Assessment of Takeda's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2010
    Table 46: Assessment of Novartis's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2010
    Table 47: Assessment of Pfizer's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2010
    Table 48: Assessment of Sanofi-Aventis's cancer antihormonals portfolio, 2010
    Table 49: Regional launch dates for new antihormonals in the seven major markets, 2010-2019
    Table 50: Patent expiry dates for the approved antihormonals in the seven major pharmaceutical markets, 2010-2019
     
    List of Figures
     
    Figure 26: Methodology for forecasting price to remove impact of currency fluctuations on future trend
    Published By: Datamonitor
    Product Code: Datamonitor9384


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