Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Published: January 2014
No. of Pages: 71
  

Overview

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

The countries covered in this report include: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China,  Georgia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Macau, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, Vietnam.

Executive Summary

As mobile growth across Asia shifts to new generation services, data usage sees massive increase

This market report provides a series of forecasts for subscriber growth in selected markets in Asia. The report predominantly covers the fixed line, internet and mobile subscriber market segments in 24 countries across Asia. Considerable attention is given in the report to developing economies in the region where the main segments of the market are more often than not in their early subscriber growth phases.

The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to occur. The associated text provides additional information on the market and describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual scenario forecasts are summarised in a series of tables for each country.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies our own historical market information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. Where relevant, any statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

Asia - Telecom Forecasts

Table of Contents

1. Background notes to market forecasts

2. Afghanistan
2.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
2.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
2.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

3. Azerbaijan
3.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
3.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
3.3 Forecasts –mobile market – 2015; 2020

4. Bangladesh
4.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
4.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
4.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

5. Cambodia
5.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
5.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
5.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

6. China
6.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2013-2018
6.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2013-2018
6.3 Forecast internet users – 2013-2018
6.4 Forecast Mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
6.4.1 Forecast: Total mobile subscribers 2013-2014; 2018
6.4.2 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers

7. Georgia
7.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
7.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
7.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

8. Hong Kong
8.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013-2014; 2018
8.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2013-2014; 2018

9. India
9.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services – 2015; 2020
9.2 Forecasts- internet services – 2015; 2020
9.3 Forecasts - Mobile services – 2015; 2020

10. Indonesia
10.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market: 2015; 2020
10.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
10.3 Forecasts – mobile market: 2015; 2020

11. Japan
11.1 Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2013 - 2014; 2018
11.2 Forecast broadband subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017
11.3 Forecast FttX subscribers: 2012-2013; 2017

12. Kazakhstan
12.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
12.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
12.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

13. Kyrgyzstan
13.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
13.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
13.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

14. Laos
14.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
14.2 Forecasts – internet services - 2015; 2020
14.3 Forecasts – mobile services - 2015; 2020

15. Macau
15.1 Forecast mobile subscribers – 2012-2013; 2017

16. Malaysia
16.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
16.2 Forecasts – broadband internet services – 2015; 2020
16.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

17. Nepal
17.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
17.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
17.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

18. Pakistan
18.1 Forecast – fixed line market – 2015; 2020
18.2 Forecasts – Internet market – 2015; 2020
18.3 Forecast – mobile market – 2015; 2020

19. Philippines
19.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
19.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
19.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

20. South Korea
20.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2012 - 2013; 2017
20.2 Forecast broadband subscribers – 2011 - 2012; 2017
20.3 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2012- 2013; 2017

21. Sri Lanka
21.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
21.2 Forecasts – Internet services – 2015; 2020
21.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

22. Taiwan
22.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013 and 2018
22.2 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018
22.3 Forecast total mobile subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018
22.4 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers – 2012 (actual); 2013, 2018

23. Thailand
23.1 Forecasts – fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts – internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts – mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020

24. Uzbekistan
24.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
24.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
24.3 Forecasts – mobile market – 2015; 2020

25. Vietnam
25.1 Forecasts – fixed-line market – 2015; 2020
25.2 Forecasts – internet services – 2015; 2020
25.3 Forecasts – mobile services – 2015; 2020

List of Tables

Table 1 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 2 – Afghanistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 3 – Afghanistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 4 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 5 – Azerbaijan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 6 – Azerbaijan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 7 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 8 – Bangladesh – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 9 – Bangladesh – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 10 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed-line growth – 2015; 2020
Table 11 – Cambodia – Forecast fixed internet subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 12 – Cambodia – Forecast mobile subscriber growth – 2015; 2020
Table 13 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 14 – China – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 15 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 16 – China – Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 17 – China – Forecast internet users and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 18 – China – Forecast internet users and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 19 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 20 – China – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 21 – China – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market – 2013 - 2014, 2018
Table 22 – Georgia – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 23 – Georgia – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 24 – Georgia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 25 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band – 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 26 – Hong Kong – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band – 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 27 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 28 – Hong Kong – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 29 – India – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 30 – India – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 31 – India – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 32 – Indonesia – Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 33 – Indonesia – Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 34 – Indonesia – Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 35 – Japan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 36 – Japan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 37 – Japan – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 38 – Japan – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 39 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 40 – Japan – Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2012; 2017
Table 41 – Kazakhstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 42 – Kazakhstan – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 43 – Kazakhstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 44 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 45 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 46 – Kyrgyzstan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 47 – Laos – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 48 – Laos – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 49 – Laos – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 50 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 51 – Macau – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2013 - 2014; 2018
Table 52 – Malaysia – Forecast fixed-line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 53 – Malaysia – Forecast broadband internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 54 – Malaysia – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 55 – Nepal – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 56 – Nepal – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 57 – Nepal – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 58 – Pakistan – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 59 – Pakistan – Forecast internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 60 – Pakistan – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 61 – Philippines – Forecast fixed line subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 62 – Philippines – Forecast Internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 63 – Philippines – Forecast mobile subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 64 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 65 – South Korea – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 66 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 67 – South Korea – Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 68 – South Korea – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 69 – South Korea – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast – 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 70 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 71 – Sri Lanka – Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 72 – Sri Lanka – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 73 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 74 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 75 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual), 2013; 2018
Table 76 – Taiwan – Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 (actual); 2013; 2018
Table 77 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 78 – Taiwan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration – lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 79 – Taiwan – Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration – higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 80 – Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2018
Table 81 – Thailand – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 82 – Thailand – Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate – 2015; 2020
Table 83 – Thailand – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate –2015; 2020
Table 84 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 85 – Uzbekistan – Forecast fixed internet subscribers – 2015; 2020
Table 86 – Uzbekistan – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 87 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 88 – Vietnam – Forecast fixed internet subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020
Table 89 – Vietnam – Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates – 2015; 2020

Published By: Paul Budde Communication
Product Code: Paul Budde Communication1234


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