Energy Market Landscape: Bulgaria

Introduction

Evolving competitive dynamics are rapidly and significantly changing the face of the gas and power markets in and around Europe. As such, a timely and broadly based understanding of the market landscape is vital for players throughout the energy value chain. Central to this is an understanding of the exact stage of competitive development reached in each market, and how it is likely to change.

Scope

• Up-to-date insight on market structures, regulatory developments, supply and demand balances, asset developments and player strategies.
• Insight into current levels of gas and power competitive intensity benchmarked against 33 relevant markets (EU 27 and 6 related countries).
• Forecasts of how the nine metrics making up the competitive intensity scores will change by 2012.

Highlights

The MCI scores draw on nine underlying metrics grouped into three categories: Market Framework (Regulatory Effectiveness; Pricing Regime; Ease of Third Party Access), Supplier Push (Wholesale Fragmentation, Retail Fragmentation, Traded Market Maturity), and Customer Pull (Access to Market Information, Consumer Representation, Propensity to Switch)

Each of the Energy Market Landscape series provides a profile of both the relevant gas and power market. Issues examined include regulatory structures, player strategies and supply/demand dynamics. There is also a list of operational, planned and under construction infrastructure including power stations, pipelines, LNG terminals and storage sites

Reasons to Purchase

• Obtain up-to-date, relevant and standardized information on European and related energy markets from a single source.
• Have a logical framework to monitor market developments and emerging trends, identify opportunities and plan strategies accordingly.
• Assess current and future gas and power market competitive environments by gaining insight into factors driving market competitiveness.

Table Of Contents

DATAMONITOR VIEW 1

CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Gas Market Overview 2
Industry Landscape 2
Retail Market Players 2
Gas Supply and Demand Analysis 3
Gas Infrastructure 8
Pipelines 8
Storage 9
Electricity Market Overview 10
Industry Landscape 10
Retail Market Players 10
Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis 10
Electricity Infrastructure 16
Generation Capacity 16
Electricity Networks 17
Competitive Intensity Analysis Overview 18
Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 18
The MCI Index shows how competitive a particular market is. This has applications for both new entrant seeking to enter the market, and established players and former monopoly incumbents seeking to defined their market share from new entrants. 18
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2010 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing in July 2013, five years after full market opening 18
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull 19
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 20
Gas Market Competitive Intensity 21
Bulgaria's weak gas metrics create an MCI score very much at the lower end of the European scale 21
All of Bulgaria's gas metrics score at the lower end of the scale 22
Despite a reasonable regulatory score, Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics are constrained by the TPA and balancing regimes 22
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 5/10 2013: 6.5/10] 22
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 6.5/10 2013: 8/10] 22
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 4/10] 23
All of the Market Framework factors remain firmly at the bottom end of the scoring scale during the forecast period 23
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 0.1/10 2013 1/10] 23
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 8/10 2013: 9/10] 23
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 1/10] 23
Customer Pull metrics remain modest both at the current time and at the end of the forecast period 23
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 0.1/10 2013: 2/10] 23
Consumer Representation [2010: 2/10 2013: 2.5/10] 23
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1/10 2013: 2.5/10] 24
Switching rates have so far been very limited with little to indicate a strong increase over the forecast period. Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 24
Electricity Market Competitive Intensity 25
Bulgaria's Customer Pull metrics show particular weakness both now and at the end of the forecast period 25
Most of Bulgaria's power metrics remain in the lower half of the scale 26
Aside from a relatively strong regulatory score, Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics remain modest at the end of the forecast period 26
Effectiveness of Regulator [2010: 5/10 2013: 7/10] 26
Ease of Third Party Access [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 27
Pricing Regime [2010: 3/10 2013: 4/10] 27
All of Bulgaria's Market Framework metrics show little improvement both at the current time and in the near term future 27
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2010: 3/10 2013: 3.5/10] 27
Retail Market Fragmentation [2010: 4/10 2013: 4.5/10] 27
Traded Market Maturity [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 3/10] 28
The relatively undeveloped nature of the market serves to constrain the Customer Pull metrics 28
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2010: 2/10 2013: 3.5/10] 28
Consumer Representation [2010: 1/10 2013: 2/10] 28
Propensity to Switch [2010: 1.5/10 2013: 3.5/10] 28

COMPETITIVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS APPENDIX 30
MCI Scores Summary 30
MCI Scoring Scales 33

APPENDIX 38
List of power stations in Bulgaria 38
Definitions 39
Ask the analyst 41
Datamonitor consulting 41
Disclaimer 41

List of Tables

Table 1: Major gas market retail players, 2008 2
Table 2: Bulgaria gas supply and demand balance, 2008─09e 4
Table 3: Bulgaria cross-border gas transmission pipelines 9
Table 4: Bulgaria gas storage sites 9
Table 5: Bulgaria major power retail players, 2008 10
Table 6: Bulgaria power supply and demand balance, 2008─09e 11
Table 7: Bulgaria system capacity 17
Table 8: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 2010 and 2013 30
Table 9: MCI Additive, Europe 2010 and 2013 31
Table 10: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2010 and 2013 32
Table 11: Bulgaria power generation assets 38

List of Figures

Figure 1: Bulgaria indigenous gas production, 1995─2009e 5
Figure 2: Bulgaria gas import supply sources, 2009e 6
Figure 3: Bulgaria gas sectoral consumption, 2009e 7
Figure 4: Bulgaria gas consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990─2020f 8
Figure 5: Bulgaria power production by fuel type, 1990─2009e 12
Figure 6: Bulgaria power production by fuel type, 2009e 13
Figure 7: Bulgaria power sectoral consumption, 2009e 14
Figure 8: Bulgaria power consumption, trends and forecasts, 1990─2020f 15
Figure 9: Bulgaria power generation capacity by fuel type, 2008 16
Figure 10: MCI Assessment Scale 18
Figure 11: MCI Assessment Framework 19
Figure 12: MCI Scales 20
Figure 13: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 21
Figure 14: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 22
Figure 15: European Power Competitive Intensity, 2010-13 25
Figure 16: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 26
Figure 17: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 29
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 33
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 34
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Pricing Regime 34
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 35
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 35
Figure 23: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 36
Figure 24: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information 36
Figure 25: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 37
Figure 26: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 37