Review and Outlook of China’s Dairy Industry 2012/2013

Published: March 2013
No. of Pages: 100
   

2012 was an important turning point for the development of China's dairy industry. There was pacing up of transition from coarse quantitative growth to intensive qualitative efficient growth and from super-conventional unregulated development to steady orderly progress. There were both challenges and opportunities for China's dairy industry.

From the perspective of challenges, 2012 saw constant upsurge of CPI and overall price hike. The price for dairy cattle feed and fodder, fuel cost and labor cost, which are related to dairy cattle farming, rose comprehensively, so the production cost of raw milk kept on moving up. Although the procurement price for raw milk rose at the same time, yet the growth of cost and expenditure was faster. More and more smallholder farmers were forced to give up dairy farming. During the year, the input-output efficiency of scaled farming was much better than smallholder farming and scaled farming saw accelerated improvement of proportion in raw milk production. From the perspective of quality vs price, China is one of the countries that have the highest raw milk price. The too high raw milk price does not only weaken the competitiveness of China's dairy industry in the world, but also makes it hard for China to export dairy products and there is a huge cost pressure to the domestic dairy processing enterprises. Dairy companies have to readjust their product structure, raise the proportion of high value-added products, sustain and improve the gross profit margin. Meanwhile the too high raw milk price forces processing companies to restructure their products and produce more "functional products" and "colorful products" of higher price. However the too high prices for dairy products restrain consumption and the per capita dairy consumption quantity of the Chinese residents lingers around the same level. In 2012 the price for raw milk and milk-based raw materials kept at a high level, products from the international market were more competitive than the domestic made in quality vs price. Meanwhile there were frequent incidences concerning dairy product quality and safety, especially involving famous brands, which hurt consumers' confidence on dairy products. In order to raise competitiveness, domestic companies paced up acquisitions and mergers overseas, shifted dairy farming and processing to foreign countries and tried to gain consumers' confidence by introducing 100% imported products. At the same time there was continual significant growth of dairy import to China, especially full-cream milk powder and skim powder, breaking another historical record. In 2012 the import of raw material milk powder was close to 600,000 tons, up 30% year on year. The huge import brought a serious impact on milk powder processing and even on the whole dairy processing industry in China.

From the perspective of opportunities, the Chinese Government enhanced support and regulation of the industry in 2012. For dairy farming, scaled farming continued to gain Government support and preferential policy treatment and the profit of scaled farming was guaranteed. Meanwhile processing companies injected more investment for dairy farming and raised the proportion of controllable milk source. For dairy processing, the order of the processing market was gradually purified, the competition of the dairy market became more regulated and orderly, the proportion of marketing cost in the total cost kept on dropping and the profit margin of the dairy processing industry improved, which eased the pressure from the hike of production cost to a certain extent. For international environment, the global dairy consumption was affected by the outbreak of the European debt crisis and slow rally of the global economy especially the developed economic entities. The economic entities, which suffered from the crisis, witnessed negative impact on dairy consumption. On the other hand, the main economic entities in the world still saw stability or certain growth of production of milk and processed dairy products and hence they relied more on export. Except for whey and lactose, the price for other dairy products fell year on year and the dairy industry waits to be consolidated. The hardship of the dairy-developed economies is an opportunity for China's dairy industry, especially the implementation of the "going out" strategy lays an opportunity.

Looking into 2013, China's dairy industry is foreseen to witness significant changes concerning both the domestic and international market environment. After the readjustment in 2012, the global economy especially Europe and America shall recover and there shall be improvement of consumption demand. The continuation of Greece in the Euro Zone is a cardiac stimulant to the European economy and the US Democrats and Republicans are hopefully to reach a compromise on the "fiscal cliff". These shall stabilize the Western economy. At the same times, QE currency policy shall be exercised in more and more countries, which surely will spur price hike of global fundamental products including produce and oil once again. The price for raw milk and processed dairy products is projected to surge again in the main economies. Although the huge supply would restrain excessive price hike to a certain extent, yet China shall see rising cost of dairy import. In China in 2012, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Finance jointly promulgated the "Prospering Dairy Farming Alfalfa Development Action". Alfalfa growing shall be going on extensively in the main dairy farming regions in 2013. The policy is conducive to optimization of dairy cattle feed structure, reduction of feed and other farming cost, improvement of raw milk quality and yield and upgrading of dairy farming.

This report illustrates in a panorama way the situation of China's dairy industry in 2012 including production of raw milk and processed products, dairy consumption, dairy trade, price trend of raw milk and processed products, operational status of the dairy industry, the competition of the dairy market, the revenue of key dairy companies and investment. The report also covers the trend of the world dairy market; production, consumption and trade of the key dairy producing and trade countries; the impact from the world dairy market to China's dairy industry and forecast on the trend of China's dairy industry in 2013.

This report is the result of collaborative collective work of BOABC Dairy Research Team. The senior analysts of BOABC Dairy Research Team are members of the "think tank" of relevant government authorities and associations, who have sound relationship with the authorities and associations and keep good relations with key dairy companies, related sectors and enterprises as well. This advantage is solid valuable professional support to the composition of this report and guarantees the accuracy, authoritativeness, scientific justifiableness and forward looking of the data quoted in the report. BOABC believes this report is important reference for both domestic and foreign investment agencies, dairy companies, suppliers of ingredients for dairy products and equipment suppliers in making strategic decisions, and it is also important reference for industrial associations and research institutes.

Review and Outlook of China’s Dairy Industry 2012/2013

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Policy Environment for China's Dairy Industry in 2012
1.1 Overview of Relevant Policies, Standards and Plans
1.2 Policy
1.2.1 Contents of "Prospering Dairy Farming Alfalfa Development Action" from MOA and MOF and Impacts on Dairy Industry
1.2.2 Contents of "Circular on Further Support to Farming Insurance Premium Subsidy" from MOF (MOF Finance [2012] No. 2) and impacts
1.2.3 Contents of "Circular on National Subsidy for Livestock Elite Breeds" from MOF and Impacts
1.2.4 Contents of "Circular on Experimenting Methods of Produce VAT Input Tax Deduction in Certain Sectors" from MOF and State Taxation Bureau (MOF Tax [2012] No. 38) and Impacts
1.2.5 Content of "Labeling of Pre-packed Special-diet Food (draft)" from MOH and Impacts
1.2.6 Contents of "Experiment on "Voluntary Report" of Dairy Companies" from AQSIQ and Impacts
1.3 Plan
1.3.1 "12th Five Year Development Plan for Food Industry" from NDRC and MOII
1.4 Standard
1.4.1 "12th Five Year Plan for National Food Safety Standard (draft)" from MOH
Note: MOA: Ministry of Agriculture, MFA: Ministry of Finance, AQSIQ: State Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, MOII: Ministry of Information Industry, NDRC: National Development and Reform Commission, MOH: Ministry of Health)

Chapter 2 Production of China's Dairy Industry in 2012
2.1 Raw Milk
2.1.1 Overview
2.1.2 Dairy Cattle Inventory
2.1.3 Raw Milk Production
2.1.4 Layout of Dairy Farming Regions
2.1.5 Raw Milk Procurement Price
2.1.6 Dairy Cattle Farming Modes
2.1.7 Dairy Cattle Farming Margin
2.1.8 Feed Price
2.1.9 Forage Grass Price
2.2 Dairy Processing
2.2.1 Liquid Milk
2.2.2 Solid Dairy Products
2.2.3 Raw Material Milk Powder
2.2.4 Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder
2.2.5 Other Solid Dairy Products

Chapter 3 Trade of Milk-based Raw Materials and Other Related Products in China in 2012
3.1 Dairy Import
3.1.1 Overview
3.1.2 Import Composition
3.2 Milk Powder Import
3.2.1 Import Quantity
3.2.2 Source of Import
4.2.3 Destination of Imported Products
3.2.4 Import Price
3.2.5 Web Quote on Full-cream Milk Powder and Skim Powder from Fonterra
3.3 Whey Import
3.3.1 Import Quantity
3.3.2 Source of Import
3.3.3 Destination of Imported Products
3.3.4 Import Price
3.4 Import of Milk Fat Products
3.4.1 Import Quantity
3.4.2 Source of Import
3.4.3 Import Price
3.5 Cheese Import
3.5.1 Import Quantity
3.5.2 Source of Import
3.5.3 Import Price
3.6 Fresh Dairy Import
3.6.1 Import Quantity
3.6.2 Source of Import
3.6.3 Import Price
3.7 Yogurt Import
3.7.1 Import Quantity
3.7.2 Import Price
3.8 Lactose Import
3.9 Milk Protein Import
3.10 Import of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder
3.11 Import of Dairy Cattle, Their Gene Products and Feed
3.11.1 Elite-breed Cattle, Frozen Semen and Embryos
3.11.2 Alfalfa
3.12 Dairy Export
3.12.1 Overview
3.12.2 Export Structure
3.12.3 Fresh Milk
3.12.4 Milk Powder

Chapter 4 Dairy Consumption in China in 2012
4.1 Overview
4.2 Dairy Consumption Structure of Urban Residents
4.3 Dairy Consuming Regions of Urban Residents
4.3.1 Overview of National Urban Areas
4.3.2 36 Large and Medium Cities
4.4 Dairy Consumption of Rural Residents
4.5 Dairy Retail Price
4.5.1 Fresh Milk and Yogurt
4.5.2 Milk Powder
4.6 Market Capacity of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder
4.6.1 National Status
4.6.2 36 Large and Medium Cities
4.7 Other Factors Affecting Dairy Price
4.7.1 White Sugar Price
4.7.2 CPI
4.7.3 RMB Exchange Rate
4.7.4 Oil Price

Chapter 5 Competition of China's Dairy market in 2012
5.1 Overview
5.2 Raw Milk
5.3 Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder
5.3.1 Market Environment
5.3.2 Market Share of Main Competing Brands
5.4 Liquid Milk
5.4.1 UHT Products
5.4.2 Low-temperature Products

Chapter 6 Key Dairy Companies in 2012
6.1 Overview of Consolidation of Dairy Companies
6.2 Key Players
6.2.1 Yili
6.2.2 Mengniu
6.2.3 Bright Dairy
6.2.4 Sanyuan Food
6.2.5 Wondersun Dairy
6.2.6 Huishan Dairy
6.2.7 Feihe Dairy
6.2.8 Beingmate
6.2.9 Mead Johnson
6.2.10 Dumex

Chapter 7 Development of China's Dairy Processing Industry in 2012
7.1 Overview
7.2 Operational Efficiency of Dairy Industry
7.3 Forecast on Dairy Production Capacity in Coming 3-5 Years

Chapter 8 World Dairy Market Situation in 2012
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Brief of World Economy in 2012
8.1.2 Gross Dairy Demand in the World
8.1.3 Global Raw Milk and Dairy Production
8.1.4 Dairy Price
8.1.5 Forecast of Global Dairy Market in 2013
8.2 Dairy Market Situation of Key Dairy Producing and Trade Countries in 2012
8.2.1 New Zealand
8.2.2 Australia
8.2.3 USA
8.2.4 EU
8.2.5 India

Chapter 9 Outlook of China's Dairy Industry in 2013
9.1 Overview
9.2 Raw Milk Production
9.2.1 Dairy Cattle Inventory
9.2.2 Milk Production
9.2.3 Layout of Dairy Farming
9.3 Dairy Processing
9.3.1 Main Dairy Products
9.3.2 Other Dairy Products
9.4 Dairy Trade
9.4.1 Import
9.4.2 Export
9.5 Raw Milk and Dairy Price
9.5.1 Raw Milk
9.5.2 Dairy Products
9.6 Dairy Consumption
9.7 Competition Pattern of Dairy Market

Annexes
Annex 1 Equilibrium of Milk in China, 2011-2013
Annex 2 Equilibrium of Full-cream Milk Powder in China, 2011-2013
Annex 3 Equilibrium of Skim Milk Powder in China, 2011-2013

List of Tables

Table 3-1 Dairy Import to China, 2011-2012
Table 3-2 Origins of Milk Powder to China and Changes, by Quantity, 2009-2012
Table 3-3 Destinations of Milk Powder Import to China (by Quantity), 2012
Table 3-4 Origins of Whey Import and Changes of Their Proportion in National Total Import, 2009-2012
Table 3-5 Destinations of Whey Import to China (by Quantity), 2009-2012
Table 4-6 Origins of Cheese Import to China, 2012
Table 3-7 Origins of Fresh Dairy Import to China, 2012
Table 3-8 Import Quantity of Elite-breed Cattle and Their Bio Products to China, 2008-2012
Table 3-9 Import Price for Elite-breed Cattle and Their Bio Products, 2008-2012
Table 3-10 Trend of Alfalfa Import to China, 2009-2012
Table 3-11 Dairy Export from China, 2009-2012
Table 4-1 Per Capita Dairy Possession Quantity of Chinese Residents, 1992-2012
Table 4-2 Per Capita Dairy Consumption Quantity of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2006-2012
Table 4-3 Changes of Per Capita Expenditure on Dairy Consumption of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, by Quarter, 2006-2012
Table 4-4 Changes of Per Capita dairy Consumption (total) of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2009-2011
Table 4-5 Changes of Per Capita Fresh Milk Consumption of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2009-2012
Table 4-6 Changes of Per Capita Yogurt Consumption of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2009-2011
Table 4-7 Changes of Per Capita Milk Powder Consumption of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2009-2011
Table 6-1 Total Profit of Yili, 2012
Table 6-2 Core Business and Operation of Yili, 2012
Table 6-3 Regional Status of Core Business of Yili, 2012
Table 6-4 Profit of Mengniu, 2012
Table 6-5 Revenue of Different Products of Mengniu, 2012
Table 6-6 Total Profit of Bright Dairy, 2012
Table 6-7 Core Business and Operation of Bright Dairy, 2012
Table 6-8 Regional Status of Core Business of Bright Dairy, 2012
Table 6-9 Margin of Main Sub Companies of Bright Dairy, 2012
Table 6-10 Total Profit of Sanyuan Food, 2012
Table 6-11 Core Business and Operation of Sanyuan Food, 2012
Table 6-12 Regional Status of Core Business of Sanyuan Food, 2012
Table 6-13 Profit of Main Sub Companies of Sanyuan Food, 2012
Table 6-14 Production and Operation of Wondersun, 2009-2012
Table 6-15 Production and Operation of Huishan Dairy, 2009-2012
Table 6-16 Revenue of Feihe Dairy, by Quarter, 2010-2012
Table 6-17 Production of Feihe Dairy, 2009-2012
Table 6-18 Financial Status of Beingmate, 2008-2012
Table 6-19 Core Business and Operation of Beingmate, 2012
Table 6-20 Regional Status of Core Business of Beingmate, 2012
Table 6-21 Margin of Main Sub Companies of Beingmate, 2012
Table 6-22 Production Equipment of Beingmate Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder
Table 6.23 Production of Mead Johnson (China), 2008-2012
Table 6-24 Production of Dumex, 2008-2012
Table 6-25 Extension of Technology and Products of Dumex in China
Table 7-1 Indices of China's Dairy Industrial Development, 2002-2012
Table 7-2 Asset Management Ratio of Dairy Industry, 2002-2012
Table 7-3 Production of Main Dairy Products and Capacity Utilization Rate, 2011
Table 8-1 Milk Procurement Price of Dairy Farmers' Cooperatives in New Zealand
Table 8-2 Margin of Dairy Farming in New Zealand
Table 8-3 New Zealand Dairy Export Market, 2009-2012
Table 8-4 New Zealand Raw Milk Supply and Demand , 2011-2013
Table 8-5 New Zealand Full-cream Milk Powder Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-7 New Zealand Cheese Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-8 New Zealand Butter Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-9 Australian Raw Milk Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-10 Australian Full-cream Milk Powder Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-11 Australian Skim Powder Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-12 Australian Butter Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-13 Australian Cheese Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-14 American Raw Milk Production Trend, 2011-2012
Table 8-15 Trend of Production of Some Dairy Products in USA, 2011-2012
Table 8-16 Trend of FAS Price Trend for Some Dairy Products in USA, 2011-2012
Table 8-17 Raw Milk Supply and Demand of EU 27 Countries, 2011-2013
Table 8-18 Cheese Supply and Demand of EU 27 Countries, 2011-2013
Table 8-19 Butter Supply and Demand of EU 27 Countries, 2011-2013
Table 8-20 Skim Powder Supply and Demand of EU 27 Countries, 2011-2013
Table 8-21 Full-cream Milk Powder Supply and Demand of EU 27 Countries, 2011-2013
Table 8-22 Indian Raw Milk Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-23 Indian Skim Powder Supply and Demand, 2011-2013
Table 8-24 Indian Butter Supply and Demand, 2011-2013

List of Figures

Fig 2-1 Changes of Dairy Cattle Inventory in China, 1997-2011
Fig 2-2 Changes of Milk Production in China, 1997-2012
Fig 2-3 Trend of Raw Milk Price of Ten Main Farming Provinces in the Nation, 2008-2012
Fig 2-4 Trend of Proportion of Dairy Farming Households in Deficit, by Month, 2009-2012
Fig 2-5 Weekly Trend of Average Wholesale Price for Corn and Soymeal in China, 2010-2012
Fig 2-6 Changes of Liquid Milk Production in China, 2000-2012
Fig 2-7 Liquid Milk Production and Changing Trend in China, by Month, 2005-2012
Fig 2-8 Proportion on Provincial Liquid Milk Production in National Total, 2012
Fig 2-9 Comparison of Provincial Liquid Milk Production, 2012
Fig 2-10 Composition of Liquid Milk, 2000-2012
Fig 2-11 Changes of Production of Different Varieties of Liquid Milk in China, 2000-2012
Fig 2-12 Trend of Production of Solid Dairy Products, 1997-2012
Fig 2-13 Regional Production of Solid Dairy Products in China, 1998-2012
Fig 2-14 Proportion of Provincial Solid Dairy Production in National Total, 2012
Fig 2-15 Trend of Milk Powder Production in China, 1997-2012
Fig 2-16 Proportion of Provincial Milk Powder Production in National Total, 2012
Fig 2-17 Trend of Production of Full-cream Milk Powder and Skim Powder, 1999-2012
Fig 3-1 Structural Changes of Dairy Import to China, by Quantity, 2009-2012
Fig 3-2 Monthly Milk Powder Import Trend, by Month, 2005-2012
Fig 3-3 CIF Trend of Milk Powder Import to China, by Month, 2005-2012
Fig 3-4 Changes of Fonterra Web Auction Price (FOB) for Full-cream Milk Powder, 2008-2012
Fig 3-5 CIF Trend of Whey Import to China, by Month, 2005-2012
Fig 3-6 Origins of Milk Fat Import and Changes, 2003-2012
Fig 3-7 CIF Trend of Butter and Anhydrous Milk Fat Import, 2005-2012
Fig 3-8 Structure of Cheese Import to China (by Quantity), 2012
Fig 3-9 Trend of Cheese Import to China (by Quantity), 2000-2012
Fig 3-10 CIF Trend of Cheese Import to China, 2004-2012
Fig 3-11 Structure of Fresh Milk Import to China (by Milk Fat Content and Quantity), 2012
Fig 3-12 CIF Trend of Different Fresh Milk Import to China, 2002-2012
Fig 3-13 CIF Price for Lactose Import to China, by Month, 2005-2012
Fig 3-14 CIF Price for Milk Protein Import to China, 2000-2012
Fig 3-15 Import Quantity of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder and CIF Trend to China, 2000-2012
Fig 3-16 Composition of Origins of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder Import to China, 2012
Fig 3-17 Composition of Dairy Export from China (by Quantity), 2012
Fig 3-18 Destinations of Milk Powder Export from China (by Quantity), 2012
Fig 4-1 Per Capita Dairy Consumption Quantity of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities in China, by Quarter, 2005-2012
Fig 4-2 Structure of Dairy Consumption (by Quantity) of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities in China, by Quarter, 2005-2012
Fig 4-3 Structure of Dairy Consumption (by Expenditure) of Residents in the 36 Large and Medium Cities in China, by Quarter, 2005-2012
Fig 4-4 Per Capita Milk and Dairy Consumption of Rural Residents in China, 1992-2012
Fig 4-5 Price Trend of Fresh Milk and Yogurt of the 36 Large and Medium Cities in the Nation, by Quarter, 2005-2012
Fig 4-6 Price Trend of Small-pack Milk Powder of the 36 Large and Medium Cities in the Nation, by Quarter, 2005-2012
Fig 4-7 Price Trend of International and Domestic Famous Brands of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder, 2009-2012
Fig 4-8 Regional Layout of Number of Infants and Young Children and Market Capacity (by Consumption Quantity) of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder of the 36 Large and Medium Cities, 2012
Fig 4-9 Weekly Average Price (Price at Production Venue) for White Granulated Sugar in China, 2005-2012
Fig 4-10 CPI Growing Trend in China, by Month, 2008-2012
Fig 4-11 48-month Trend of USD and RMB Exchange Rate, 2008-2012
Fig 4-12 Price Trend of International Crude Oil, 2012
Fig 5-1 Market Share of Famous Brands of Infant/young Child's Formula Milk Powder in China, by Sales Volume, 2009-2012
Fig 5-2 Trend of Market Share of Major Brands of UHT Milk in China, 2010-2012
Fig 5-3 Trend of Market Share of Major Brands of Low-temperature Milk in China, 2010-2012
Fig 8-1 EU Export Price for Dairy Products (FAS), 2009-2012
Fig 8-2 USA Monthly Export Price for Dairy Products (FAS), 2009-2012
Fig 8-3 Fonterra Web Weighted Average Trading Price for Full-cream Milk Powder (FAS), 2008-2012
Fig 8-4 Fonterra Web Weighted Average Trading Price for Skim Milk Powder (FAS), 2008-2012
Fig 8-5 New Zealand Raw Milk Production, Dairy Cattle Inventory and Average Milk Price (Farm Price)
Fig 8-6 New Zealand Dairy Export, 1999-2011
Fig 8-7 Australian Dairy Farming (liters/cow), 2002/03-2012/13
Fig 8-8 USA Raw Milk Price Trend, by Quarter, 2009-2012

Published By: BOABC
Product Code: BOABC1034


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