This study analyzes the world turbine industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by turbine type (e.g., wind, gas combustion), application (e.g., electric power generation, aircraft engines, marine), world region and major national market. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles industry competitors.
World demand to rise 6.5% annually through 2016
The world market for turbines and related products (turbine-based engines, generators, and generator sets) is forecast to rise 6.5 percent annually to $165 billion in 2016. This will represent a deceleration from the pace of the 2006-2011 period, primarily caused by a slowdown in sales of wind turbines. The global wind turbine market expanded at an annual rate in excess of 20 percent between 2001 and 2011 to become the single largest turbine product segment, ahead of turbine engines. Wind turbines will continue to be the fastest growing turbine product type through 2016, but a much higher base of existing capacity will keep growth to a more moderate level.
Demand for gas combustion turbines is expected to accelerate to a 7.3 percent annual growth rate through 2016. The market for gas turbines will benefit from the ongoing global shale gas boom. The development of shale resources in the US has led to significantly lower gas prices in North America. Over the next decade, as the US expands its infrastructure for exporting gas overseas and other countries develop their own shale resources, global gas prices should fall substantially as well. This will lead to increased investment in natural gas plants for power generation, spurring expanded demand for gas turbines.
China, US to remain key turbine markets
Between 2006 and 2011, the global turbine market in China posted a 28 percent annual growth rate, by far the fastest in the world. The largest of these gains occurred in the wind turbine market, which saw demand multiply by a factor of more than 10. China has become the largest market for wind turbines in the world, accounting for 43 percent of existing global capacity in MW terms at year-end 2011. The fastest growth in turbine demand will occur in Australia, which is investing heavily in wind power in order to reduce its dependence on carbon.
Central and South America will register the fastest turbine demand growth among world regions through 2016, increasing 7.8 percent per annum through that year. Gains in that region will be headed by Brazil, which represents a strong growth market for both power generation turbines and turbine-based aircraft engines. The Africa/Mideast region will also post rapid gains, though it will remain a small regional market for turbine products.
The US, which is the second largest national market for turbine products behind China, will grow at an aboveaverage pace through 2016, aided by an expanding market for gas turbines in power generation applications and continued healthy gains in demand for wind turbines. Mexico, fueled by increasing development of wind power, will be the second fastest growing market for turbine products worldwide through 2016. Western Europe will remain the slowest growing regional market for turbine products, largely due to the maturity of its wind energy sector. However, the region still holds significant potential for offshore wind power, and gains in wind turbine demand will accelerate relative to the 2006-2011 period.
Profiles global industry players such as Alstom, GE Aviation, GE Energy, Rolls-Royce, SAFRAN, Siemens, Vestas, and United Technologies.
This study analyzes global supply of and demand for turbines and related products (i.e., turbine-based engines, generators, and generator sets). Specific products covered include gas combustion turbines, steam turbines, hydraulic turbines, wind turbines, microturbines, turbine-based engines (both aircraft and marine), and turbine-based generators and generator sets. This study treats original equipment demand for turbine products used in aircraft or marine vessels as occurring in the nation where the vehicle is built, in contrast to aftermarket demand, which occurs in the nation where the vehicle is used. Excluded from the scope of the study are turbine blades and other separately sold parts and components of complete turbine products and systems.
Historical data (2001, 2006, and 2011) and forecasts for the years 2016 and 2021 are provided for shipments, sales, and net exports of turbines and related products at the aggregate level, valued in millions of current US dollars, including inflation. Detailed data on turbine product markets are for sales in millions of current US dollars. Historical and forecast data are also presented for turbine demand by application, defined as electric power generation, aircraft engines, and marine and other.
Data on world turbine products supply and demand are derived from differing sources and developed from statistical relationships. As a result, variations are commonplace in this type of international reporting, and, consequently, data presented in this study are historically consistent but may differ from other sources. To reduce the impact of such discrepancies, total world imports and exports have been assumed to balance in any given year.
In addition, major turbine product manufacturers are identified and profiled, and the key competitive variables are discussed. The entire report is framed within the world industry’s economic, technological, and market environments, and therefore environmental variables affecting supply/demand patterns (electric power generation, aerospace equipment shipments, etc.) are emphasized. World turbine product market share data by company presented in the “Industry Structure” section are estimates based on consultation with multiple sources. In addition, tabular details may not always add to totals due to rounding.
Macroeconomic and demographic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated June 2012. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) historical data are derived from the national income and products accounts from the Organisation for Economic Co- Operation and Development (OECD) for its member countries, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund for its member countries that are not part of the OECD or EBRD. Sources of GDP estimates for other countries are based on information from the World Bank and a variety of sources including the countries’ statistical bureaus. GDP forecasts are developed from a consensus of public agencies and private firms.