This study analyzes the world specialty fuel additives industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2001, 2006 and 2011, and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by additive type (e.g., detergents, cetane improvers, antioxidants, lubricity improvers, cold flow improvers, petroleum dyes and markers, corrosion inhibitors), application (e.g., gasoline, diesel fuel), and market (blenders and terminals, refiners, aftermarket). The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles industry players.
Global demand to value $59.4 billion in 2016
Worldwide demand for fuel additives is expected to increase 4.7 percent per year to 26.5 billion kilograms in 2016, with demand in value terms advancing 8.0 percent per year to $59.4 billion over the same period. Oxygenates, which dominate the market, will continue to account for more than 94 percent of demand in volume terms through 2021. Growth in total fuel additive demand will be buoyed by very rapid increases in the consumption of petroleum fuels in China and other developing nations, and by changing technology and regulatory environments that result in higher additization rates.
Oxygenates such as methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) dominate world fuel additive consumption, despite efforts over the 2001-2011 period by the United States, Canada, and other countries to eliminate their usage due to concerns about ground water contaminations and possible negative health impacts. Going forward, gains will be strong as developing economies add MTBE at higher rates to their gasoline blends, while European Union member countries turn to ETBE (which can be derived from bioethanol) as a means of increasing the renewable content of their gasoline fuels without affecting the existing fuel transport infrastructure.
In addition to strong growth in fuel consumption in China and other developing countries, higher additization rates will drive increases in specialty fuel additive demand. As the motor vehicle industry globalizes and developing economies modernize their motor vehicle fleets, more efficient and powerful engines will become more common, requiring the availability of higher-quality fuels. Governments will respond to changing technology and public pressure
regarding pollution and fuel consumption by enacting stricter standards to guarantee fuel quality, reduce emissions, and reduce petroleum fuel consumption through expanded biofuel use.
Deposit control agents to represent largest gains
The largest gains among specialty additives are expected to be in deposit control agents such as detergents. The most rapid gains, however, will be seen in cold flow improvers, promoted by increasing biodiesel blending and declining levels of sulfur in diesel fuels, as air pollution concerns lead to the phase-in of lower sulfur diesels in developing regions.
Other specialty additives will also be impacted by expanding biodiesel and ethanol consumption. Demand for antioxidants and corrosion inhibitors will particularly benefit, with antioxidants also receiving a boost from increased standards for fuel quality. Biodiesel will have a limiting effect on fuel additive demand, however, by restraining growth in cetane improvers and lubricity improvers.
Gasoline fastest growing end use for fuel additives
Among the three major applications for fuel additives (gasoline, distillate fuels, and other refined petroleum products), gasoline is expected to be the fastestgrowing end use for fuel additives, with gains particularly buoyed by strong demand for oxygenates. Distillate fuels represent the largest end use for specialty additives, and demand for distillate additives has been especially impacted by a shift from gasoline to diesel vehicles in several regions, in addition to changing fuel blends with lower sulfur content and higher levels of biodiesel. Other petroleum fuels, such as jet fuel and marine fuel, require much lower volumes of additives, so this application is expected to remain the smallest.
Profiles for 45 global competitors such as Baker Hughes, BASF, Chevron, Huntsman, Infineum, Innospec, LyondellBasell Industries, New Market, Saudi Basic Industries, and TPC Group
This report covers the world market for specialty fuel additives, including deposit control agents, cetane improvers, lubricity and cold flow improvers, corrosion inhibitors, antioxidants, and others. The study also presents a discussion of additives by application, including gasoline, distillate fuels, and other fuels. Commodity products such as ethanol, MTBE, and biodiesel are not included in market totals but are discussed in detail due to their impact on specialty fuel additive use and overall fuel consumption. These commodity additives are also called blending components but are referred to as “fuel additives” in this study. Blending components are added to the fuel at a percent of volume, while specialty fuel additives are added in parts per million (ppm).
Historical data for 2001, 2006, and 2011 and forecasts to 2016 and 2021 are provided for fuel additive demand by product type, application, and market. The term “demand,” defined as production plus imports minus exports and stock changes, is used synonymously with “sales” and “consumption.” Percentages in charts may not add to totals due to independent rounding, and tabular ratios may be rounded for clarity.
Due to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ use of chain weighted price indices, inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product components (2010 dollars) do not add to the total. Prices as they appear in this study are presented to show general trends in pricing and may not represent actual sales prices for products. Prices are weighted averages based on information gathered from producers, trade associations, and internal Freedonia databases.
The fuel additive market is heavily influenced by government regulations, which are themselves driven by public opinion, environmental and health concerns, and political lobbying from trade groups such as the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers and the Renewable Fuels Association. The forecasts given in this study assume that the US, European Union, and other regional or national renewable fuels standards will be implemented on schedule and that other regulations regarding sulfur levels and emissions will proceed as planned.
Macroeconomic and demographic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated June 2012. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) historical data are derived from the national income and products accounts from the Organisation for Economic Co- Operation and Development (OECD) for its member countries, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund for its member countries that are not part of the OECD or EBRD. Sources of GDP estimates for other countries are based on information from the World Bank and a variety of sources including the countries’ statistical bureaus. GDP forecasts are developed from a consensus of public agencies and private firms.