Elder Care Services to 2016

Published: December 2012
No. of Pages: 266

This study analyzes the US elder care service industry. It presents historical demand data (2001, 2006, 2011) and forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by type (e.g., skilled nursing care facilities, home health care services, continuing care retirement communities, social services, assisted living facilities), provider (for-profit, nonprofit), payment source (e.g., Medicaid, Medicare, out-of-pocket, private insurance) and region. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry composition, evaluates company market share and profiles major players.

US revenues to grow 5.2% annually through 2016

Revenues for the elder care services industry (i.e., skilled nursing, home health care, social services, continuing care, and assisted living) are expected to grow 5.2 percent per year through 2016 to $319.5 billion. Advances will be driven largely by demographic changes in light of increasing life expectancy, which is contributing to the rising number of individuals in the older population segments. Growth is further boosted by the large, post-World War II “baby boom” generation entering their retirement years.

The market will be restrained by continuing efforts at the state and federal levels to curb Medicaid and Medicare expenditures, often by limiting reimbursements or by directing patients to less expensive forms of care. For instance, the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act expands support for home and community based services, including home health care and social services. Elder care service providers compete functionally with informal caregivers, typically family members; however, a growing number of older adults either do not have family members who are able to care for them, or simply prefer using professional care.

Home, community based services to grow the fastest

In 2011, skilled nursing facilities accounted for the largest share of elder care service revenue with 43 percent. However, home and community based services (e.g., home health care, social services, assisted living) are projected to achieve the fastest growth. Advances will be driven by continued state and federal efforts to shift Medicaid payments away from skilled nursing to more cost effective community based services. Additionally, many older adults prefer to age in place, remaining in their homes as long as possible.

Nonprofits to outpace for-profit entities

For-profit entities accounted for twothirds of elder care service revenues in 2011, benefiting from the growing use of the chain and franchise business model. However, nonprofits (e.g., charitable organizations and government-related agencies) are expected to slightly outpace for-profits through 2016.

Medicaid to remain leading payment source

Medicaid will continue to be the leading payment source for the elder care services industry despite efforts at the state and federal levels to curb expenditures. Medicare payments will experience the fastest annual growth, though future legislative changes and fluctuating reimbursement rates have the potential to affect that outlook. Out-of-pocket expenditures continue to be important in the continuing care and assisted living industries, as many of the costs of these services are not covered by Medicare or Medicaid. Private insurance coverage will rise as the aged population grows and individuals who doubt the government’s ability to provide future care purchase long term care insurance. Other payment sources include charitable donations, private grants, and other government resources such as the US Veterans’ Administration.

Company Profiles

Profiles 40 competitors, such as Atria Senior Living, Brookdale Senior Living, Emeritus, Five Star Quality Care, Genesis Healthcare, Golden Living, HCP, and Manor Care

Additional Information

This study analyzes the US market for elder care services. Historical data are provided for 2001, 2006, and 2011, with forecasts for 2016 and 2021. Data are presented for US elder care service revenues in millions of US dollars by

  • type of service (e.g., institutional skilled nursing, home health care, continuing care, social services, assisted living, and personal emergency response service)
  • provider (i.e., nonprofit and for-profit)
  • payment source (e.g., Medicaid, Medicare, private insurance, outof- pocket, and others)

The entire study is framed within the overall industry’s economic, technological, and market environment. In addition, major elder care service providers are identified and profiled, and the key competitive variables are discussed. For the purposes of this study, “public” means companies that have publicly traded stock; public does not refer to governmental agencies. This study includes elder care services provided by for-profit businesses and nonprofit agencies, but does not include services provided -- either formally or informally -- by family members, friends, and other caregivers who are either uncompensated or compensated in “under-the-table” arrangements.

Tabular details may not add to totals due to rounding, and some ratios are based on unrounded numbers. Macroeconomic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated August 2012. Because of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ use of chainweighted price indexes, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product components (2005 dollars) do not necessarily add to the total.

Published By: Freedonia Group
Product Code: Freedonia Group171

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