Changing Thermal Power Mix - Is Gas a Viable Substitute for Coal?

Published: November 2012
No. of Pages: 94
  

Changing Thermal Power Mix - Is Gas a Viable Substitute for Coal?

Summary

The report discusses how the move toward gas is gaining momentum in many countries. Though gas fired generation will show a much steaper growth than coal fired gernation, renewables will see an even faster growth. Whether coal, gas or renewables win the power battle - vary country by country. The report analyses the power gernation market till 2025 in seven key countries of the world. These include the US, Mexico, Russia, Japan, Italy, the UK, and China. The report provides coal and gas capacity and generation forecast for these key countires. The report analyzes the prospects of gas power generation in key countries forecasted to 2025 by covering drivers, restraints, gas supply-demand scenario, non-fossil fuel power generation and regulations affecting gas power generation in these key countries.

Scope
- Global and Regional analysis of gas power generation
- Coal and gas power installed capacity and power generation forecast for key countries
- Key drivers and restraints impacting gas fired generation inncluding impact of shale gas.
- Regulations affecting coal and gas power generation in key countries

Reasons to buy
- Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data for gas power generation.
- Develop strategies based on the latest power sector trends.
- Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage from gas power generation growth potential.
- Identify key partners and business development avenues.
- Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects.

Additional Information:

Unproven and Environmentally Unfriendly: Is Natural Gas Really the New Coal for the US?

More efficient power plants, lower carbon emissions and a wealth of recent discoveries across the country has seen natural gas production boom in popularity in the US, but will it prove a long-term and reliable successor to coal?

This latest report states that while shale gas is expected to surge in the future, outpacing a receding coal sector, there are several reasons for  gas companies to proceed with caution.

Firstly, large-scale natural gas production is a more recent US endeavour, and although hailed as a massive boost for the nation’s energy industry, the country’s shale plays are relatively new and unproven.

For example, last year the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) estimated the Marcellus Shale play to have technically recoverable reserves of 400 trillion cubic feet (tcf), whereas in the same year the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimated far more modest reserves of 84.2tcf. The latest guess of the EIA, released earlier this year, places the figure between the two at 140.6tcf.

Additionally, although gas is favoured over alternative fossil fuels for its comparatively low carbon emissions output, gas fired plants are still responsible for a substantial amount of pollution. With emissions targets to meet, GlobalData expects the US government’s growing focus on the commercialization of renewable energy generation is to cannibalize a portion of the expanding shale gas sector.

In 2011, the share of gas in the US power mix was a little over 41%, but while natural gas energy production will continue to grow, its share in the national power mix is expected to fall by 1.6% by 2020, thanks in no small part to government initiated renewable energy initiatives.

Changing Thermal Power Mix - Is Gas a Viable Substitute for Coal?

1 Table of Contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 5

2 Introduction 6
2.1 Thermal Power Generation 6
2.1.1 Supercritical and Ultra-supercritical Generation 6
2.1.2 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle 6
2.1.3 Unconventional Natural Gas 7
2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance 8

3 Gas vs. Coal - Drivers of Change 9
3.1 Detailed Analysis of Key Drivers - Efficiency, Emissions, Cost and Reserves 9
3.1.1 Emissions - Gas is the Cleanest Fossil Fuel 9
3.1.2 Efficiency - Combined-cycle Gas Plants are the Most Efficient 10
3.1.3 Economics 11
3.1.4 Coal Reserves Depleting Fast but New Gas Reserves Being Discovered 13

4 Gas vs. Coal - Current Market Dynamics 15
4.1 Regional Analysis 15
4.1.1 North America 15
4.1.2 South America 15
4.1.3 Europe and Russia 15
4.1.4 Middle East 15
4.1.5 Asia-Pacific 16
4.1.6 Africa 16
4.2 Role of Unconventional Gas 18
4.3 US - Gas is the Way Ahead 19
4.3.1 Overview 19
4.3.2 Coal vs. Gas - What do the Numbers Say? 19
4.3.3 US Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis 23
4.3.4 US Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2020 25
4.3.5 US, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 27
4.4 Mexico - Gas Power to Lead 29
4.4.1 Overview 29
4.4.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 29
4.4.3 Mexico Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 33
4.4.4 Mexico Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 35
4.4.5 Mexico, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 38
4.5 Russia - Natural Gas Inevitable to Meet Electricity Demand 39
4.5.1 Overview 39
4.5.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 39
4.5.3 Russia Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 43
4.5.4 Russia Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 43
4.5.5 Russia, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 44
4.6 Japan - Gas to Fill Power Gap Created by Nuclear Disaster 46
4.6.1 Overview 46
4.6.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 46
4.6.3 Japan Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 50
4.6.4 Japan Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 50
4.6.5 Japan Gas Power Market, Challenges and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 52
4.6.6 Japan, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 53
4.7 Italy - Gas Power Growth to Remain Stable while Renewable Leads 55
4.7.1 Overview 55
4.7.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 55
4.7.3 Italy Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 59
4.7.4 Italy Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 61
4.7.5 Italy, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 65
4.8 UK - Gas to Aid Transition to a Low-carbon Economy 67
4.8.1 Overview 67
4.8.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 67
4.8.3 UK Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis 71
4.8.4 UK Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2020 72
4.8.5 UK, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 74
4.9 China - Gas Power Generation to More than Triple but Coal Continues to Remain Dominant 77
4.9.1 Overview 77
4.9.2 Coal vs. Gas - What Do the Numbers Say? 77
4.9.3 China Gas Power Market, Drivers and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 81
4.9.4 China Gas Power Market, Restraints and Impact Analysis, 2011-2025 83
4.9.5 China, Power Market, Regulations and Key Initiatives 87

5 Appendix 89
5.1 Definitions 89
5.1.1 Power 89
5.1.2 Installed Capacity 89
5.1.3 Electricity Generation 89
5.1.4 Electricity Consumption 89
5.1.5 Thermal Power Plant 89
5.1.6 Hydropower Plant 89
5.1.7 Nuclear Power 89
5.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources 89
5.1.9 Overnight Cost 89
5.2 Abbreviations 90
5.3 Bibliography 92
5.4 Methodology 93
5.4.1 Coverage 93
5.4.2 Secondary Research 94
5.4.3 Primary Research 94
5.5 Contact Us 94
5.6 Disclaimer 94

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Thermal Power Market, Fossil Fuel Emission Levels, Pounds Per Billion Btu of Energy Input 9
Table 2: Power Market, Global, Energy Efficiency of Advanced Technology Power Plants (%), 2011 10
Table 3: Gas Power Market, Global, Cost of Electricity Generation from Natural Gas and Coal in the US ($/MWh), 2011 11
Table 4: Thermal Power Market, US, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 20
Table 5: Thermal Power Market, US, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 22
Table 6: Power Market, US, Coal and Gas Production (trillion Btu), 2009-2025 24
Table 7: Thermal Power Market, US, Coal and Gas Prices ($/MMBtu), 2009-2025 27
Table 8: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Natural Gas and Coal Installed Capacity (MW),  2000-2025 30
Table 9: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 32
Table 10: Power Market, Mexico, Trends in GDP ($bn) and Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2005-2017 33
Table 11: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf), 2000-2011 36
Table 12: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 40
Table 13: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 42
Table 14: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Forecast of Phase by Phase Gas Development (bcm), 2005-2030 44
Table 15: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Capital Investments in the Gas Industry ($bn),  2009-2030 44
Table 16: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 47
Table 17: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 49
Table 18: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf), 2000-2011 51
Table 19: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 56
Table 20: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 58
Table 21: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Oil Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 60
Table 22: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf), 2000-2011 62
Table 23: Power Market, Italy, Solar PV Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 64
Table 24: Thermal Power Market, UK, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 68
Table 25: Thermal Power Market, UK, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 70
Table 26: Power Market, UK, Natural Gas Production (bcf), 2000-2011 72
Table 27: Thermal Power Market, UK, CCGT Power Plant Cost ($/kW), 2010 73
Table 28: Thermal Power Market, UK, SO2 Emissions Limit for New-new Power Plant (mg/m3), 2011 75
Table 29: Thermal Power Market, UK, NOx Emissions Limit for Existing and New Power Plants (mg/m3), 2011 75
Table 30: Thermal Power Market, UK, NOx Emissions Limit for New-new Power Plants (mg/m3), 2011 75
Table 31: Thermal Power Market, China, Coal and Gas Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 78
Table 32: Thermal Power Market, China, Coal and Gas Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 80
Table 33: Power Market, China, Wind Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 82
Table 34: Thermal Power Market, China, Natural Gas Imports (bcf), 2006-2011 83
Table 35: Thermal Power Market, China, Natural Gas Production and Consumption (bcf),  2000-2011 84
Table 36: Power Market, China, Natural Gas and Renewable Installed Capacity (MW),  2000-2025 85

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: How a Thermal Power Plant Works 6
Figure 2: Types of Natural Gas 7
Figure 3: Thermal Power Market, Global, Cost, Efficiency vs. Emissions, 2011 12
Figure 4: Thermal Power Market, Global, Proven Coal Reserves (million metric tonnes),  1991-2011 13
Figure 5: Thermal Power Market, Global, Proven Gas Reserves (tcm), 1991-2011 14
Figure 6: Thermal Power Market, Global, Analysis of Major Gas Power-generating Countries, 2011 16
Figure 7: Thermal Power Market, Global, Major Gas Power-generating Countries, 2011 17
Figure 8: Thermal Power Market, US, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 19
Figure 9: Thermal Power Market, US, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 21
Figure 10: Power Market, US, Coal and Gas Production (trillion Btu), 2009-2025 23
Figure 11: Power Market, US, Installed Capacity (MW), 2011-2020 25
Figure 12: Thermal Power Market, US, Coal and Gas Prices ($/MMBtu), 2009-2025 26
Figure 13: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Natural Gas and Coal Installed Capacity (MW),  2000-2025 29
Figure 14: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 31
Figure 15: Power Market, Mexico, Trends in GDP ($bn) and Electricity Consumption (GWh), 2005-2017 33
Figure 16: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf),  2000-2011 36
Figure 17: Thermal Power Market, Mexico, Installed Capacity (%), 2011 and 2025 37
Figure 18: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 39
Figure 19: Thermal Power Market, Russia, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 41
Figure 20: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 46
Figure 21: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 48
Figure 22: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Natural Gas Price Comparison ($/MBtu), 2008-2012 50
Figure 23: Thermal Power Market, Japan, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf), 2000-2011 51
Figure 24: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 55
Figure 25: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 57
Figure 26: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Oil Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 59
Figure 27: Thermal Power Market, Italy, Natural Gas Production and Imports (bcf), 2000-2011 62
Figure 28: Power Market, Italy, Solar PV Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 63
Figure 29: Thermal Power Market, UK, Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 67
Figure 30: Thermal Power Market, UK, Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 69
Figure 31: Power Market, UK, Natural Gas Production (bcf), 2000-2011 72
Figure 32: Thermal Power Market, China, Coal and Gas Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 77
Figure 33: Thermal Power Market, China, Coal and Gas Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2025 79
Figure 34: Power Market, China, Wind Power Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2025 82
Figure 35: Thermal Power Market, China, Natural Gas Imports (bcf), 2006-2011 83
Figure 36: Thermal Power Market, China, Natural Gas Production and Consumption (bcf),  2000-2011 84
Figure 37: Power Market, China, Natural Gas and Renewable Installed Capacity (MW),  2000-2025 85

Published By: GlobalData
Product Code: GlobalData26606


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