Having witnessed in 2008 the first major signal that future conventional oil and gas supplies will become much harder to find and more expensive to develop, Datamonitor is publishing this analysis of deep water production around the world. As secure energy supplies become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, an accurate forecast of supply/demand dynamics becomes more important.
Historically, global economic recessions have led to declining energy demand, but the resultant lower prices have soon led to a recovery in demand and then prices, especially as OPEC has acted to rein in output to tighten supply. This trend has already been reflected in the oil markets to some degree. In the gas sector, supplies will be available only if investment in infrastructure, above all long-distance pipelines and LNG conversion and receiving plants, is well advanced.
Key findings and highlights
- Algria has large non-associated gas reserves including the giant Hassi R’Mel field, along with associated gas output. Gas production is projected to expand rapidly as new markets are exploited in Southern Europe, although growth is likely to flatten off towards the end of the decade.
- Angolan oil supply, at first largely from shallow waters off the coast of Cabinda, would have peaked in the late 1990s had it not been for the huge deep water potential recognized in the mid-1990s. This led to significant expansion in oil output and continued growth is forecast up to 2017 after a brief decline in 2009 because of OPEC obligations.
- Nigerian oil consumption declined after 2005 but is now increasing slowly, while exports have been flat. Exports are expected to grow from 2010, reaching a peak in 2013. Gas consumption is increasing as the country attempts to make more use of its produced and wasted gas volumes.
Reasons to buy
- Gain understanding of which markets will see increased production levels over the next decade
- Identify potential commercial opportunities through an understanding of changing demand and supply dynamics in specific markets
- Analyse the changing balance between on and offshore production