Having witnessed in 2008 the first major signal that future conventional oil and gas supplies will become much harder to find and more expensive to
develop, Datamonitor is publishing this analysis of deep water production around the world. As secure energy supplies become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract, an accurate forecast of supply/demand dynamics becomes more important.
Historically, global economic recessions have led to declining energy demand, but the resultant lower prices have soon led to a recovery in demand and
then prices, especially as OPEC has acted to rein in output to tighten supply. This trend has already been reflected in the oil markets to some degree. In
the gas sector, supplies will be available only if investment in infrastructure, above all long-distance pipelines and LNG conversion and receiving plants,
is well advanced.
Key findings and highlights
• North American gas production has been almost flat for a decade, constrained by flat US demand. Now as onshore gas production increases from
unconventional sources and there is modest growth in offshore output, total gas production is expected to rise over the next decade.
• West Africa is seeing, and will continue to see for at least five years, exceptional oil output growth from offshore areas. This is almost solely due to
oil from the deep waters of Angola, Nigeria and other countries south of Nigeria, plus Ghana. By 2014 the rate of increase will be reduced and the
region will then reach an output plateau.
• From 2012 Middle East oil production is forecast to see persistent growth, both onshore and offshore, especially from Iraq, only flattening off after
2020. Onshore regions have seen the most quota restrictions and therefore will experience the strongest growth.
Reasons to buy
• Gain understanding of which markets will see increased production levels over the next decade
• Identify potential commercial opportunities through an understanding of changing demand and supply dynamics in specific markets
• Analyze the changing balance between on and offshore production