Value Clothing Retail in the UK

Growth in value clothing expenditure will slow substantially in the five year period to 2012, with limited household disposable income restricting discretionary purchases. However, 27.6% growth is a resilient performance, with the key contributors – Primark, Sainsbury's and H&M – increasing their store presence and improving ranges encouraging consumers to spend despite tight purse strings

Features and benefits

• Provides data and insight on market size, sales and growth rates for value clothing overall and at sub-sector level, helping to plan range development
• Provides expenditure breakdown across the value, midmarket and premium sectors highlighting to you the areas which offer the most growth potential
• Market issues are examined; space and international development, consolidation and multichannel, improving awareness of challenges and opportunities
• Value clothing expenditure forecast to 2016 and analysis of overall clothing volume growth and inflation, aiding future planning and strategising

Highlights

For the first time, from 2014, we forecast growth in value clothing expenditure to underperform the overall clothing market. A gradual shift in shopping habits of consumers making more considered purchases and wanting better value for money through quality and product design will result in a proportion of consumers trading up to midmarket players

Despite the lower costs associated with OOT, high street locations are much more desirable for attracting younger shoppers. While OOT stores remain important for catering to families, value players need to have a presence in high footfall locations to build retail brand awareness – particularly those with a high fashion offer which target 16–24s

Logistically, Europe offers more convenient expansion than in regions further afield due its closer proximity to the UK, similar seasons and westernised consumers wanting fashions similar to the UK's. European competitors would include C&A, H&M, Kiabi and TK Maxx so UK players must identify gaps in the markets to ensure successful launches

Your key questions answered

• What proportion of sales will come from international markets by 2016? Which markets offer the most potential and which are the most risky?
• Should I be rolling out new space in an effort to drive sales, even though my space productivity is declining? What store format is most favourable?
• Which segments of the market offer the best growth potential? How is the premium/luxury sector performing considering restricted disposable incomes?
• Which retailers will gain the most market share in 2012, and which are expected to be the greatest share losers and why?

Table Of contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Key findings
(Untitled sub-section)
Main conclusions
Spend on value clothing to rise 27.5% in five years to £11.38bn in 2012
2.4 million extra value clothing shoppers
Growth via value segment will now slow to lowest level in 15 years
Retailer growth will come from increased scale and stealing share
Opportunities to target underserved 65+ consumers …
… and improve loyalty drivers other than price where only the cheapest wins
Menswear offers value retailers larger growth potential than womenswear
Premium segment of clothing market to snatch growth baton from value players over 2012–16
Value retailers must prepare for a shift in store formats
Multichannel advances still to be made
30% of sales will come from international operations

VALUE CLOTHING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES
The ideal value clothing retailer
Lack of UK growth opportunities forces value players to broaden proposition
Target new customers
Embrace missed loyalty drivers
Improve profitability
New store formats
Multichannel
International expansion

CLOTHING MARKET
Clothing market spending trends
Clothing expenditure grows by 2.6% in 2012 driven by 2.1% inflation
Clothing market value

VALUE CLOTHING MARKET
Market definition and analysis
Value clothing market to grow by £2.46bn in five years to 2012
Four years of consolidation benefits stronger, remaining players
Value and midmarket retailers pick up lost sales
Fewer consolidation opportunities will make it harder for remaining players to grow sales
We predict lowest growth in 15 years for 2012
Retailers will need even greater scale
Market share growth will come from stealing share rather than growing the market
Weaker players still at risk from younger, more fashion targeted retailers
Opportunities to target underserved mature consumers
65+ females and males undercatered for
Fashion conscious consumers should also be targeted
Market segmentation
Menswear offers value retailers larger % growth potential than womenswear …
… but childrenswear expenditure makes the largest gains
Value share of the market outperforms mid and premium sectors in five years to 2012
Only the cheapest can win on price – forcing most retailers to drive loyalty through other means
Profitability comes under further pressure
Inflation forces value retailers to take a hit on profits or raise prices
Margins feel the pinch
Retailers will be forced to rethink store presence to protect profitability
Value retailers must prepare for a shift in store formats
OOT will come under pressure
Destination stores will supplement smaller stores with more streamlined ranges
Destination stores must provide an experience
Showrooms provide value operators with a cost effective, high footfall solution
Innovation instore would enhance shopping experience and cut long term costs
Multichannel advances still to be made
An online presence remains crucial for future growth
Target busy shoppers on the go through click & collect …
… and m-commerce
Social media showcases fashionability
International expansion provides the most growth potential
30.0% of sales will come from international operations by 2016
European expansion is convenient but competition is growing
Untapped territories remain for value retailers

MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS
Value clothing market share methodology
Clothing market shares
Value clothing market shares
Matalan and New Look lose out to Primark and H&M
Winners and losers

COMPANY DATA COMPARISONS
(Untitled section)
Key UK operating statistics

APPENDIX
Definitions
Current prices
Inflation
Constant prices
Total growth
Volume growth
Abbreviations
Further reading
Ask the analyst
Disclaimer

List Of Tables

Table: Summary of clothing sectors 2012e
Table: Clothing market value and growth drivers 2002–12e
Table: Value clothing market definition 2012
Table: Value clothing trends 2002–12e
Table: Value clothing expenditure by sector 2008–16e
Table: Clothing market shares 2007–12e
Table: Non-specialists clothing market shares 2007–12e
Table: Value clothing market shares 2007–12e
Table: Value clothing retailers key UK operating statistics 2011/12

List Of Figures

Figure: The ideal value clothing retailer 2016
Figure: Sector shares of the clothing market 2002 and 2012e
Figure: Value clothing market drivers 2012e on 2007
Figure: Consolidation benefits remaining retailers 2008/09–2011/12
Figure: Value clothing spend & y-o-y change vs all clothing 2002–11 and forecast to 2016
Figure: Positioning map of value clothing retailers by age and style 2012
Figure: Value retailer's core visitor share by age 2012
Figure: Opportunities to target mature consumer groups 2012
Figure: Opportunity to target fashion conscious consumers 2012
Figure: Value retailers clothing sales mix 2008, 2012e and 2016e
Figure: Primark concession in Selfridges 2011
Figure: Value clothing retailers share of total clothing segments 2008, 2012e and 2016e
Figure: Value, midmarket, premium share of the UK clothing market 2008–16e
Figure: Top Five drivers of loyalty for value clothing and total clothing shoppers 2012
Figure: Overall clothing inflation/deflation & volume growth 2006–11 and forecast to 2016e
Figure: Value clothing specialists operating margins 2010/11 on 2005/06
Figure: Retailers sales density, operating margins and y-o-y change in space 2010/11
Figure: Value clothing retailers' store characteristics 2012 and 2016
Figure: F&F pop up shop in London's Covent Garden 2012
Figure: Multichannel growth strategies for value retailers 2012
Figure: Matalan's Pinterest page July 11, 2012
Figure: New Look's social media site NL daily July 9, 2012
Figure: Trendspotting article on George's blog 2012
Figure: Share of sales which will come from international business 2008, 2012e and 2016e
Figure: Share of international sales at New Look, Peacocks, Primark and TK Maxx 2008 & 12e
Figure: Map of international expansion opportunities 2012
Figure: Value clothing market shares 2007 and 2012e
Figure: Winners & losers in value clothing market share 2012e on 2011
Figure: UK space growth vs sales growth 2011/12e
Figure: Clothing sales densities 2010/11 and 2011/12e