Canadian Oil Sands Industry to 2015 – Oil Price Recovery Providing Momentum

Canadian Oil Sands Industry to 2015 – Oil Price Recovery Providing Momentum

Summary

GlobalData, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “Canadian Oil Sands Industry to 2015 – Oil Price Recovery Providing Momentum”. The study, which is an offering from the company’s Energy Research Group, provides in-depth analysis of the Canadian Oil Sands Industry with bitumen production forecasts, key trends, some of the drivers and challenges for the oil sands industry participants until 2015. The study provides detailed analysis and forecasts of major economic and industry trends, both historic and forecast, affecting the Canadian oil sands industry. The report includes historic and future forecasts of bitumen production from various projects and distribution of oil sand projects based on location. The report discusses about major mergers and acquisitions in Canadian oil sands. The report also encompasses market share analysis in terms of bitumen produced. It also discusses about major NOC investments in Canadian oil sands. The report details about capital and operating expenditure for projects based process techniques used in bitumen extraction. The report discusses in detail about some of the major factors influencing the operating expenditure of the Canadian oil sands.

The research discusses current and planned oil sand projects, key trends and issues globally along with market share analysis of major participating companies. The report is built using the data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in house analysis by GlobalData’s team of industry experts.

According to the report the production from oil sands is expected to reach 1.82 million barrels per day by 2015 due to rising crude oil prices stimulated by demand from developing nations in Asia Pacific. The production from conventional oil reserves in Canada is already in the declining phase and will further decline by 2015. The newly planned and upcoming oil sand exploration activities are likely to compensate for the decline in conventional oil reserves and the total oil production from the region will increase by 2015. Other than the newly planned and upcoming oil sand projects, the anticipated investments will further increase the bitumen production from the region. The economy recovery post 2010 will further increase bitumen production levels.

The three major bitumen production sites in Canada are Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River. Athabasca has the largest area for bitumen production from oil sands. Out of the twenty six projects (in the form of current project expansions and new projects) started between 2004 and 2009, twelve projects are in Athabasca, five in Cold Lake, two in Peace River and one in the North West. Capacity additions through new projects and current project expansions are likely to be the highest in Athabasca region followed by Cold Lake. A small portion of capacity additions will happen in Peace River and North West.

The bitumen from oil sands is extracted through mining and in-situ techniques and utilization of these technologies varies depending on the location and geology of the reservoir. The bitumen in Canadian oil sands is extracted mainly by mining and the use of other techniques has only increased after 2003. Among the in-situ techniques, SAGD is widely adopted due to the simplicity of the process and approximately 54 projects have employed it. Primary production follows SAGD in terms of most extensively used technique. Several novel techniques such as Solvent processing, Enhanced Recovery Electro-Thermal Dynamic Stripping Process (ET DSP TM), Toe to Heal Air Injection (THAI), N-SOLV and Vapor Exchange Process (VAPEX) are in proposed or demonstration stages.

The Canadian oil sands industry is capital intensive and the capital and operating expenditure depend on the reservoir geology, the bitumen fluid properties and on the type of technique used for extraction. The capital expenditure of CSS, SAGD, Standalone Mining and Integrated Mining was approximately the same from 2004–06.

The decline in oil production from the existing conventional oil reserves is prompting oil and gas majors to invest in new onshore and offshore reserves to maintain the production levels. Oil and Gas majors such as; ConocoPhillips, Chevron, EnCana, PetroChina, Shell and Statoil have invested in oil sands through various joint ventures and consortiums. The bitumen produced by Suncor Energy, Inc., Imperial Oil Limited, Shell Canada, Canadian Oil Sands Limited, ConocoPhillips, EnCana Corporation, Devon Energy, Chevron, Marathon and Nexen Inc accounted for 70.46% of the region’s H1 2009 total.

Scope

The report provides detailed information and analysis on Canadian oil sands projects, production capacities of various projects, major in-situ recovery technologies, operational and capital expenditure and planned projects. Its scope includes:
- Current and Planned Canadian oil sand projects
- Production Capacities of various existing projects
- Projects by major in-situ recovery technologies
- Information on operation and capital expenditure based on process technique used and resource consumed
- Annual information covering historic data from 2000 to 2008 and forecasts to 2015
- Detailed project analysis of Athabasca, Cold Lake, North West, and Peace River regions
- Drivers and challenges for the Canadian oil sands industry
- Major mergers and acquisitions and asset transactions in the oil sands industry
- Project level information for all oil sand projects focusing on key statistics such as phase status, start year, regulatory status, technology, bitumen capacity (bbl/day), bitumen upgrader capacity (bbl/day), equity partners and equity stakes, operators, capital and operational expenditure, bitumen production (barrels/day), operational and capital expenditure per barrel.
- Project and production information of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Chevron Canada, Shell Canada, Connacher Oil and Gas Limited, Devon Canada Corporation, Deven Energy, Encana Corporation, ConoccoPhillips, Husky Energy, Imperial Oil Limited, Korean National Oil Corporation, Nexen Inc., Petro-Canada, StatoilHydro ASA, Suncor Energy, Inc., Sunshine Oilsands Ltd, and others
- Market share analysis and competitive scenario of the top five oil sand companies (bitumen production equity weighted)
- Environmental impacts such as water footprint, natural gas usage, affects on habitat, carbon emissions due to increase in Canadian oil sands production

Reasons to buy

The report will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and time sensitive manner:
- The research will allow you to identify prospective investment targets through a comprehensive update and discussion on new oil sand projects, major upgrading units and capacity expansions of existing units in the four locations.
- Find the most attractive investment destination(s) for your business by comparing projects by extraction process in these locations.
- Decide on market entry strategies in specific markets with the help of an up-to-date review of existing and planned capacity expansions of 92 Canadian oil sands projects in four locations.
- Plan your future investments in the oil sand industry by identifying average capital expenditure by project and by extraction process
- Detailed analysis of major company’s oil sand projects in Canada will help in identifying the growth strategies of these companies
- Gain insights into the strengths and weaknesses of your competitors based on market shares of key oil sand companies in these markets.
- Details of foreign investments and joint ventures will also help in identifying the entry prospects in the oil sand industry in these markets.

1 Table of contents
1 Table of contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 6
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Overview 7
2.2 GlobalData Report Guidance 8
3 Overview, Key Trends, Historic and Forecast Production for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.1 Background, History and Evolution of Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.2 Major Production Methods of Oil in Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.3 Extraction and Transportation of Oil Sands Deposits 10
3.4 Major Drivers Affecting the Growth of Canadian Oil Sands Market 10
3.4.1 Declining Oil Reserves have directed the World’s Interests towards Unconventional Reserves 11
3.4.2 Anticipated Rise in US Oil Consumption Pattern is Fortifying Canadian Oil Sands Growth 12
3.4.3 Generic Alberta’s Royalty Regime has Bolstered Canadian Oil Sands Industry in the Past 12
3.5 Impact of Crude Oil Price Dynamics on Canadian Oil Sands Industry 15
3.6 Major Challenges and Barriers for the Companies Participating in the Canadian Oil Sands Industry 15
3.6.1 Environmental Implications due to Exploration in Oil Sands Industry is Cause of Concern among Global Community 16
3.6.2 Need for New and Eco-friendly Technologies Necessitates Research and Development Expenditures by Oil Sand Companies 16
3.6.3 Effective Methods to Battle Climate Change and Need for Investments in Clean Air Constrain Oil Sand Companies 16
3.6.4 Adherence to Regulatory Framework for Oil Sands Exploration Constrain the Companies 17
3.7 The Canadian Oil Sands Industry, Trends and Information on Production from 2002–15 17
3.7.1 Major Delayed, Cancelled, Suspended Projects and Resumed Projects in 2009 18
3.8 Market Share Analysis and Key Project Announcements by Oil Sand Companies in H1 2009 19
3.8.1 Production Share Analysis by Company of the Canadian Oil Sands Industry in H1 2009 19
3.8.2 Reservoir and Process Technology Matrix by Company in H1 2009 21
3.8.3 Land Rights by Company in H1 2009 22
3.8.4 Investment and Project Announcements by Company 22
3.8.5 Proven and Probable Reserves by Major Oil Sand Companies in 2008 23
4 Economics of Canadian Oil Sands Projects 24
4.1 Historic Capital and Operating Expenditure from 2002–08 24
4.2 Historic Capital Expenditure by Project and Process Technology from 2004–08 25
4.3 Current Capital and Operating Expenditure by Project and Process Technology in H1 2009 26
4.4 Major Factors Influencing Capital and Operational Expenditure of Oil Sands Projects 27
4.4.1 Regional Geology Influencing the Costs 28
4.4.2 Geological Challenges Influencing the Costs 28
4.4.3 Environment Challenges and Excess Resource Utilization Affects the Operational Expenditure 29
5 Historic and Current Oil Sand Project Information by Location and Recovery Technology from
2002-08 30
5.1 Bitumen Production by Region and Process Technology from 2002-08 34
5.2 Historic Project Information by Recovery Technology and Extraction Process from 2002-08 36
5.2.1 Project Information by Extraction Process in H1 2009 36
5.3 Heavy Oil Upgraders, Project Information and Historic Production from 2002-08 39
6 Key Upcoming Oil Sands Projects and Production Forecasts by Region and Technology from
2009–15 40
6.1 Oil Sands, Planned Project Analysis from 2009–15 40
6.2 Bitumen Production Forecasts by Region and Process Technology from 2009–15 43
6.3 Heavy Oil Upgraders, Project Information and Forecast Production from 2009-15 45
7 Major M&A Activities and Investments in Canadian Oil Sands Industry in H1 2009 47
7.1 Trends in M&A, Deals and Asset Transactions for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry from 2006- Nov 2009 47
7.2 Key Deals in the Canadian Oil Sands Industry 2008-09 48
7.3 Shifting Focus of Major NOCs towards Canadian Oil Sands Industry 52
8 Appendix 53
8.1 Abbreviations 53
8.2 Methodology 53
8.2.1 Coverage 53
8.2.2 Secondary Research 54
8.2.3 Primary Research 54
8.2.4 Expert Panel Validation 54
8.3 Contact Us 54
8.4 Disclaimer 55