Market and Product Forecasts: Depression – Further clinical failures dampen growth prospects

Report Summary

New product launches across the seven major markets will see the market expand incrementally to 2020, reinforcing the depression market’s status as one of the largest of the CNS disorders. Lu AA21004 (Lundbeck/Takeda) will become the highest-selling drug, after negative clinical trial data for TC-5214 (Targacept/AstraZeneca) and the discontinuation of Valdoxan (agomelatine; Servier) in the US.

Features and benefits

• Access Datamonitor’s patient-based depression market forecast in the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
• Evaluate a highly granular forecast with sales value and volume projections to 2020 at the country, class, product, and regimen level.
• Understand depression market dynamics, and which factors will lead to commercial success.
• Review the products Datamonitor forecasts to launch over the next ten years, and how each subsequent launch will shape the market.

Highlights

Datamonitor forecasts the seven major depression markets to grow to $12.0bn by 2020 at a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%. This incremental growth is expected to come from uptake of new product launches and will offset increasing generic erosion of the market value.

By 2020, sales of the leading depression drug classes, such as the SSRI and SNRI antidepressants, are expected to decline. Conversely, sales of non-traditional antidepressants are projected to rise from $1.4bn in 2010 to $3.5bn in 2020.

Sales of currently marketed products are forecast to decrease three-fold over 2010–20, as the saturation of the depression market with generics increases. Nevertheless, Datamonitor expects new pipeline drugs to capture a sizable share of the market, with predicted total sales of $3.9bn in 2020 equating to a market share of 24.3%.

Your key questions answered

• Which products stand to benefit from the expected failure of TC-5214 to reach the market?
• What are the implications to the US market following Novartis’s discontinuation of agomelatine development?
• What degree of commercial success does Datamonitor forecast for key pipeline drugs?
• What will the overall depression market dynamics be over the next 10 years?
• How will sales of the major drug classes in depression evolve during the forecast period?

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Update details: October 2011
Update details: January 2012
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports

MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for this disease
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches

MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
Depression market set for steady expansion despite patent expiries
Non-traditional antidepressants will provide growth as conventional classes decline
High value lies in combination therapies for depression
US market overview
Japan market overview
France market overview
Germany market overview
Italy market overview
Spain market overview
UK market overview

PRODUCT FORECASTS
Product dynamics
The pipeline will account for almost 25% of the market value by 2020
Valdoxan (agomelatine; Servier)
Forecast assumptions
Valdoxan forecast 2010–20
Viibryd (vilazodone; Forest)
Forecast assumptions
Viibryd forecast 2010–20
Lu AA21004 (vortioxetine; Lundbeck/Takeda)
Forecast assumptions
Lu AA21004 forecast 2010–20
OPC-34712 (Otsuka)
Forecast assumptions
OPC-34712 forecast 2010–20
Edivoxetine (LY2216684; Eli Lilly)
Forecast assumptions
Edivoxetine forecast 2010–20
Levomilnacipran (F2695; Forest/Pierre Fabre)
Forecast assumptions
Levomilnacipran forecast 2010–20
Vyvanse (lisdexamfetamine; Shire)
Forecast assumptions
Vyvanse forecast 2010–20

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX
Contributing experts
Conferences attended
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Physician sample breakdown
Report methodology

List of Tables

Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in depression by Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code, 201 2
Table: ICD-10 and DSM-IV codes for major depressive disorder
Table: Patent expiry/generic launch dates for key brands in depression in the seven major markets, 2012
Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in depression in the seven major market regions, 2010–20
Table: Depression market sales value ($m) and volume (number of regimens) dynamics in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Table: Depression class sales value ($m) and volume (number of regimens) dynamics in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Depression product sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Valdoxan (agomelatine; Servier) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Viibryd (vilazodone; Forest) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Lu AA21004 (vortioxetine; Lundbeck/Takeda) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: OPC-34712 (Otsuka) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Edivoxetine (LY2216684; Eli Lilly) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Levomilnacipran (Forest/Pierre Fabre) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Vyvanse (lisdexamfetamine; Shire) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Psychiatrists surveyed regarding major depressive disorder across the seven major markets, 2010

List of Figures

Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for depression, 201 2
Figure: Depression market sales value ($m) in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Figure: Depression drug class sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales value of the depression market, by regimen ($m), 2010
Figure: Depression product sales in the US ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in France ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Depression product sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Valdoxan (agomelatine; Servier) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Viibryd (vilazodone; Forest) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Lu AA21004 (vortioxetine; Lundbeck/Takeda) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: OPC-34712 (Otsuka) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Edivoxetine (LY2216684; Eli Lilly) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Levomilnacipran (Forest/Pierre Fabre) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Vyvanse (lisdexamfetamine; Shire) sales forecast for depression in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20