Bulgaria Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulation and Competitive Landscape

Report Summary

This report gives detailed information on the Bulgaria power market and assesses the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector. This includes a detailed analysis of the current investment climate in the country’s power sector and over the next decade across 6 broad parameters. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the final country ranking in that region. The study also maps the relative ranking of the key countries in the region according to the current investment opportunities in the country and that by 2020. This report also examines the country’s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the market’s regulatory structure, supply and demand balance, import and export trends, competitive landscape and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided.

Scope

• Analysis of the current investment climate in the country’s power sector across six parameters and over the next decade
• Relative ranking of the key country’s in the region according to the current investment opportunities in the country and that by 2020.
• Statistics for installed capacity, power generation and consumption from 2000 to 2010, forecast forward 19 years to 2030
• Break-up by technology, including thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear
• Data on key current and upcoming projects
• Information on grid interconnectivity, distribution losses and power exports and imports
• Policy and regulatory framework governing the market
• Detailed analysis of top market participant, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis
• Data sourced from proprietary databases and primary interviews with key participants across the value chain

Reasons to Buy

• Identify opportunities and plan strategies by having a strong understanding of the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector
• Identification of key factors driving investment opportunities in the country’s power sector
• Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data
• Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events
• Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential
• Identify key partners and business development avenues
• Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants
• Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects

Table of contents

1 Table Of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7

2 Executive Summary 8
2.1 Declining Thermal Installed capacity 8
2.2 Increase in Power Generation 8
2.3 Increasing Nuclear and Renewable installed Capacity 9

3 Introduction 10
3.1 GlobalData Report Guidance 10

4 Business Propensity Indicator Methodology 11
4.1.1 Capacity and Reserve Potential 11
4.1.2 Regulatory Scenario 12
4.1.3 Investment Scenario 13
4.1.4 Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Infrastructure 15
4.1.5 Macro Economic Scenario 16
4.1.6 Competitive Scenario 17
4.2 Methodology Adopted to Arrive at a Final Rank 18

5 Bugaria, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator 21
5.1 Capacity and Reserve Potential 21
5.2 Regulatory Scenario 22
5.3 Investment Scenario 22
5.4 Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure 23
5.5 Macroeconomic Factors 23
5.6 Competitive Scenario 23
5.7 Conclusion 24
5.8 Business Propensity Indicator Ranking 24
5.8.1 Present Ranking 25
5.8.2 Future Ranking 25

6 Bulgaria Power Market Analysis, 2000-2030 26
6.1 Bulgaria, Power Market, Demand and Consumption Scenario 26
6.2 Bulgaria, Power Market, Import and Export Scenario 27
6.3 Bulgaria, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, 2000-2030 29
6.4 Bulgaria, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 31
6.4.1 Cumulative Installed Capacity: Breakup by Type of Power Plant 31
6.4.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity: Total Value 33
6.4.3 Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 35
6.4.4 Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 37
6.4.5 Cumulative Renewable Power Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 39
6.4.6 Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 41
6.5 Bulgaria, Power Market, Total Annual Power Generation, 2000-2030 43
6.5.1 Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000-2030 45
6.5.2 Annual Hydro Power Generation, 2000-2030 47
6.5.3 Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000-2030 49
6.5.4 Nuclear Power Generation, 2000-2030 51

7 Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Active and Upcoming Projects 53
7.1 Active Power Projects 53
7.1.1 Top 10 Thermal Power Projects 53
7.1.2 Leading Hydro Power Projects 54
7.1.3 Leading Renewable Power Projects 54
7.1.4 Leading Nuclear Power Projects 55
7.2 Upcoming Power Projects 56
7.2.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects 56
7.2.2 Leading Hydro Power Projects 56
7.2.3 Leading Renewable Power Projects 57
7.2.4 Leading Nuclear Power Projects 57

8 Bulgaria, Power Market, Regulatory Structure 58
8.1 Bulgaria, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview 58
8.2 Bulgaria, Power Market, Reforms Aim at Increasing Competition 58
8.3 Bulgaria, Power Market, Privatisation of the Bulgarian Electricity Sector 58
8.4 Bulgaria, Power Market, Renewable Energy, Policies for the Future 59

9 Bulgaria, Power Market, Infrastructure 60
9.1 Bulgaria, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview 60
9.1.1 Grid Interconnection 60
9.2 Bulgaria, Power Market, Developments for Transmission Systems 62

10 Bulgaria, Power Market, Competitive Landscape 63
10.1 Bulgaria, Power Market, Market Share of Major Power Companies 63
10.2 Bulgaria, Power Market, Key Company: Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD 64
10.2.1 Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD, Company Overview 64
10.2.2 Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD, Business Description 64
10.2.3 Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD, SWOT Analysis 66
10.3 Bulgaria, Power Market, Key Company: Enel SpA (Enel) 72
10.3.1 Enel SpA (Enel), Company Overview 72
10.3.2 Enel SpA (Enel), Business Description 72
10.3.3 Enel SpA (Enel), SWOT Analysis 75
10.4 Bulgaria, Power Market, Key Company: CEZ, a.s. 80
10.4.1 CEZ, a.s., Company Overview 80
10.4.2 CEZ, a.s., Business Description 81
10.4.3 CEZ, a.s., SWOT Analysis 82

11 Appendix 88
11.1.1 Power 88
11.1.2 Installed Capacity 88
11.1.3 Active Installed Capacity 88
11.1.4 Electricity Generation 88
11.1.5 Thermal Power 88
11.1.6 Hydro Power 88
11.1.7 Nuclear Power 88
11.1.8 Renewable Energy Resources 88
11.1.9 Generation Company 88
11.1.10 Electricity consumption 89
11.1.11 Transmission network 89
11.1.12 Interconnector 89
11.1.13 Transmission and distribution loss 89
11.1.14 Interconnector 89
11.1.15 Transmission and distribution loss 89
11.2 Abbreviations 90
11.3 GlobalData’s Methodology 90
11.3.1 Coverage 90
11.3.2 Secondary Research 90
11.3.3 Primary Research 91
11.3.4 Modeling and Forecasting 91
11.4 Contact Us 92
11.5 Disclaimer 92

List of Tables

Table 1: Ease of Doing Business-Categories and Subcategories 14
Table 2: Scoring Methodology for the Parameters 19
Table 3: Best Score for Present and Future Scenario 20
Table 4: Power Market, Bulgaria, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption By Sector (%), 2011 (Estimated) 27
Table 5: Power Market, Bulgaria, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2010 28
Table 6: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000-2030 30
Table 7: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 32
Table 8: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 34
Table 9: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 36
Table 10: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 38
Table 11: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 40
Table 12: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 42
Table 13: Power Market, Bulgaria, Total Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 44
Table 14: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 46
Table 15: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Hydro Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 48
Table 16: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 50
Table 17: Power Market, Bulgaria, Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 52
Table 18: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Thermal Power Plants, 2011 53
Table 19: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Active Hydro Power Projects (MW), 2011 54
Table 20: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Active Renewable Power Projects (MW), 2011 54
Table 16: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Active Nuclear Power Reactors (MW), 2011 55
Table 21: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects (MW), 2011 56
Table 22: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Upcoming Hydro Power Projects (MW), 2011 56
Table 23: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects (MW), 2011 57
Table 20: Power Market, Bulgaria, Leading Upcoming Nuclear Power Reactors (MW), 2011 57
Table 24: Power Market Bulgaria, Grid Interconnections of Bulgaria with other countries, 2009 61
Table 25: Power Market, Bulgaria, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000- 2020 61
Table 21: Power Market, Bulgaria, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2009 64
Table 22: Bulgarian Energy Holding EAD, SWOT Analysis 67
Table 24: Enel SpA (Enel), SWOT Analysis 75
Table 26: CEZ, a.s., SWOT Analysis 82
Table 26: Abbreviations 90

List of Figures

Figure 1: Power Market, Bulgaria, Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2010 8
Figure 2: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2010 9
Figure 3: Weights Assigned to the Six Factors (%), 2000-2020 18
Figure 4: Power Market, Bulgaria, Business Propensity Indicator 21
Figure 5: Power Market, Bulgaria, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking 25
Figure 6: Power Market, Bulgaria, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption By Sector (%), 2011 (Estimated) 26
Figure 7: Power Market, Bulgaria, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2010 28
Figure 8: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000-2030 29
Figure 9: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 31
Figure 10: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 33
Figure 11: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 35
Figure 12: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 37
Figure 13: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 39
Figure 14: Power Market, Bulgaria, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 41
Figure 15: Power Market, Bulgaria, Total Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 43
Figure 16: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 45
Figure 17: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Hydro Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 47
Figure 18: Power Market, Bulgaria, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 49
Figure 19: Power Market, Bulgaria, Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 51
Figure 20: Power Market, Bulgaria, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2010 63