Ukraine Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulation and Competitive Landscape

This report gives detailed information on the Ukraine power market and assesses the investment opportunities in the country’s power sector. This includes a detailed analysis of the current investment climate in the country’s power sector and over the next decade across 6 broad parameters. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the final country ranking in that region. The study also maps the relative ranking of the key countries in the region according to the current investment opportunities in the country and that by 2020. This report also examines the country’s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to 2030. Detailed analysis of the market’s regulatory structure, supply and demand balance, import and export trends, competitive landscape and power projects at various stages of the supply chain is provided.

Scope

• Analysis of the current investment climate in the country’s power sector across six parameters and over the next decade
• Relative ranking of the key country’s in the region according to the current investment opportunities in the country and that by 2020.
• Statistics for installed capacity, power generation and consumption from 2000 to 2011, forecast forward 18 years to 2030
• Break-up by technology, including thermal, hydro, renewable and nuclear
• Data on key current and upcoming projects
• Information on grid interconnectivity, distribution losses and power exports and imports
• Policy and regulatory framework governing the market
• Detailed analysis of top market participant, including market share analysis and SWOT analysis
• Data sourced from proprietary databases and primary interviews with key participants across the value chain

Reasons to buy

• Facilitate decision-making based on strong historic and forecast data
• Develop strategies based on the latest regulatory events
• Position yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry’s growth potential
• Identify key partners and business development avenues
• Identify key strengths and weaknesses of important market participants
• Respond to your competitors’ business structure, strategy and prospects

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Introduction 5
2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance 5

3 Business Propensity Indicator Methodology 6
3.1 Methodology Adopted For Evaluating the Business Propensity Indicator for Ukraine 6
3.1.1 Capacity and Reserve Potential 6
3.1.2 Regulatory Scenario 7
3.1.3 Investment Scenario 7
3.1.4 Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Infrastructure 9
3.1.5 Macro Economic Scenario 9
3.1.6 Competitive Scenario 10
3.2 Methodology Adopted to Arrive at a Final Rank 12

4 Ukraine, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator 14
4.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Capacity and Reserve Potential 15
4.2 Ukraine, Power Market, Regulatory Scenario 15
4.3 Ukraine, Power Market, Investment Scenario 16
4.4 Ukraine, Power Market, Transmission and Distribution Infrastructure 16
4.5 Ukraine, Power Market, Macroeconomic Factors 16
4.6 Ukraine, Power Market, Competitive Scenario 17
4.7 Ukraine, Power Market, Conclusion 17
4.8 Ukraine, Power Market, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking 18
4.8.1 Present Ranking 18
4.8.2 Future Ranking 18

5 Ukraine, Power Market Analysis, 2000-2030 19
5.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Demand and Consumption Scenario 19
5.2 Ukraine, Power Market, Import and Export Scenario 20
5.3 Ukraine, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, 2000-2030 21
5.4 Ukraine, Power Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 23
5.4.1 Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant: Percentage 23
5.4.2 Cumulative Installed Capacity: Total Value 24
5.4.3 Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 26
5.4.4 Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 28
5.4.5 Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 30
5.4.6 Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity, 2000-2030 32
5.5 Ukraine, Power Market, Annual Power Generation, 2000-2030 34
5.5.1 Annual Thermal Power Generation, 2000-2030 36
5.5.2 Annual Hydropower Generation, 2000-2030 38
5.5.3 Annual Nuclear Power Generation, 2000-2030 40
5.5.4 Annual Renewable Power Generation, 2000-2030 42

6 Ukraine, Power Market, Leading Active and Upcoming Projects 44
6.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Active Power Projects 44
6.1.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects 44
6.1.2 Leading Hydropower Projects 45
6.1.3 Leading Nuclear Commercial Reactors 45
6.1.4 Leading Renewable Power Projects 46
6.2 Ukraine, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects 46
6.2.1 Leading Thermal Power Projects 46
6.2.2 Leading Hydropower Projects 47
6.2.3 Leading Nuclear Commercial Reactors 47
6.2.4 Leading Renewable Power Projects 48

7 Ukraine, Power Market, Regulatory Structure 49
7.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview 49
7.1.1 Market Liberalization 49
7.1.2 Energy Efficiency 50
7.1.3 Law on Alternative Energy Sources 50
7.1.4 Feed-in Tariff Program/Green Tariff Law 51
7.1.5 Nuclear Policy 51

8 Ukraine, Power Market, Infrastructure 52
8.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview 52
8.1.1 Grid Interconnections 53
8.1.2 Future Development Plans 53
8.1.3 Distribution Overview 54

9 Ukraine, Power Market, Competitive Landscape - Snapshot of the Top Power Companies 55
9.1 Ukraine, Power Market, Market Share of the Major Power Companies 55
9.2 Key Company in the Ukraine Power Market, NNEGC Energoatom 56
9.2.1 NNEGC Energoatom, Company Overview 56
9.2.2 NNEGC Energoatom, Business Description 56
9.2.3 NNEGC Energoatom, SWOT Analysis 57
9.3 Key Company in the Ukraine Power Market, JSC Dniproenergo 59
9.3.1 JSC Dniproenergo, Company Overview 59
9.3.2 JSC Dniproenergo, Business Description 59
9.3.3 JSC Dniproenergo, SWOT Analysis 60
9.4 Key Company in the Ukraine Power Market, JSC Centrenergo 63
9.4.1 JSC Centrenergo, Company Overview 63
9.4.2 JSC Centrenergo, Business Description 63
9.4.3 JSC Centrenergo, SWOT Analysis 63
9.5 Key Company in the Ukraine Power Market, Zakhidenergo Joint Stock Co 66
9.5.1 Zakhidenergo Joint Stock Co, Company Overview 66
9.5.2 Zakhidenergo Joint Stock Co, Business Description 66
9.5.3 Zakhidenergo Joint Stock Co, SWOT Analysis 67

10 Appendix 69
10.1 Market Definitions 69
10.1.1 Power 69
10.1.2 Installed Capacity 69
10.1.3 Active Installed Capacity 69
10.1.4 Electricity Generation 69
10.1.5 Thermal Power 69
10.1.6 Hydropower 69
10.1.7 Nuclear Power 69
10.1.8 Renewable Power 69
10.1.9 Market Size 69
10.1.10 Renewable Energy Resources 69
10.1.11 Generation Company 70
10.1.12 Electricity consumption 70
10.1.13 Transmission network 70
10.1.14 Interconnector 70
10.1.15 Transmission and distribution loss 70
10.1.16 Interconnector 70
10.1.17 Transmission and distribution loss 70
10.2 Abbreviations 70
10.3 GlobalData’s Methodology 71
10.3.1 Coverage 71
10.3.2 Secondary Research 71
10.3.3 Primary Research 71
10.3.4 Modeling and Forecasting 72
10.4 Contact Us 72
10.5 Disclaimer 72

List of Tables

Table 1: Ease of Doing Business-Categories and Definitions 8
Table 2: Best Score for Present and Future Scenario 13
Table 3: Power Market, Ukraine, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, by Sector (%), 2010 19
Table 4: Power Market, Ukraine, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2010 20
Table 5: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000-2030 22
Table 6: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 23
Table 7: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 25
Table 8: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 27
Table 9: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 29
Table 10: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 31
Table 11: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 33
Table 12: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 35
Table 13: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 37
Table 14: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 39
Table 15: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 41
Table 16: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 43
Table 17: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Active Thermal Power Projects (MW), 2011 44
Table 18: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Hydropower Projects (MW), 2011 45
Table 19: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Active Nuclear Commercial Reactors (MW), 2011 45
Table 20: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Active Renewable Power Projects (MW), 2011 46
Table 21: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects (MW), 2011 46
Table 22: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Upcoming Hydropower Projects (MW), 2011 47
Table 23: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Upcoming Nuclear Power Projects (MW), 2011 47
Table 24: Power Market, Ukraine, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects (MW), 2011 48
Table 25: Power Market, Ukraine, Share of State-Owned Stakes Authorized to be Sold 49
Table 26: Power Market, Ukraine, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), 2000- 2020 52
Table 27: Power Market, Ukraine, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), 2000-2020 54
Table 28: Power Market, Ukraine, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2010 55
Table 29: NNEGC Energoatom, SWOT Analysis 57
Table 30: JSC Dniproenergo, SWOT Analysis 60
Table 31: JSC Centrenergo, SWOT Analysis 63
Table 32: Zakhidenergo Joint Stock Co, SWOT Analysis 67
Table 33: Abbreviations 70

List of Figures

Figure 1: Weights Assigned to the Six Factors (%), 2000-2020 12
Figure 2: Power Market, Ukraine, Business Propensity Indicator 14
Figure 3: Power Market, Ukraine, Business Propensity Indicator Ranking 18
Figure 4: Power Market, Ukraine, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, by Sector (%), 2010 19
Figure 5: Power Market, Ukraine, Total Annual Imports and Exports (GWh), 2000-2010 20
Figure 6: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Power Consumption (GWh), 2000-2030 21
Figure 7: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), 2011 23
Figure 8: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 24
Figure 9: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 26
Figure 10: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Hydro Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 28
Figure 11: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Nuclear Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 30
Figure 12: Power Market, Ukraine, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (MW), 2000-2030 32
Figure 13: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 34
Figure 14: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Thermal Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 36
Figure 15: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Hydropower Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 38
Figure 16: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Nuclear Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 40
Figure 17: Power Market, Ukraine, Annual Renewable Power Generation (GWh), 2000-2030 42
Figure 18: Power Market, Ukraine, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), 2010 55