This study analyzes the world kaolin industry. It presents historical demand data for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, and forecasts for 2015 and 2020 by market (e.g., paper, ceramics, refractories, paint, rubber), world region and major country. The study also considers market environment factors, details industry structure, evaluates company market share and profiles 32 industry players.
World demand to rise 3.4% annually through 2015
The world market for kaolin is projected to grow 3.4 percent per year through 2015 to 28.4 million metric tons, which will represent a significant acceleration from the relative stagnation of the 2005 to 2010 period. Growth in kaolin demand will be fueled by a generally stronger economic climate worldwide, with especially rapid growth in the developing economies of the Asia/Pacific and Central and South America regions. Kaolin demand in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, is forecast to recover from declines seen between 2005 and 2010 and post moderate growth going forward. Demand for kaolin valued in dollars is expected to grow quickly, rising 4.4 percent per year to a worldwide total of nearly $4.6 billion in 2015.
China to see fastest growth
The largest gains will be seen in China, which will by itself account for 40 percent of the growth between 2010 and 2015 in worldwide kaolin demand. Currently the world’s second largest consumer of kaolin, China will experience large-scale manufacturing growth and easily overtake the US to become the world’s largest kaolin market by 2015. India will also see a sizable increase in kaolin demand, fueled by an economy showing significant development across the board. India’s growth in kaolin demand will represent an acceleration of the already rapid pace of the 2005 to 2010 period, with the fastest growth occurring in the country’s paper industry. The developed nations of the US and Japan and most of the countries in Western Europe will see very weak growth through 2015, although all will post recoveries in comparison to the 2005-2010 performance.
Paper market to lead gains
From 2010 to 2015, demand for kaolin in all its major industrial uses is expected to rise faster than in the 2005 to 2010 period. The most drastic improvement will be seen in the paper industry, which is poised to reverse the negative trend it posted over the previous decade. Kaolin’s market share in paper production, traditionally the largest industrial use, was hurt in recent years by increasing competition from alternative materials, most notably calcium carbonate. That competition is expected to moderate going forward, as the market structure settles into a new norm. By 2010, most of the economically viable substitution of other materials for kaolin had already taken place. Combined with expanding paper and paperboard production in developing regions, the stabilization of kaolin’s market share in the paper industry will allow the global market for kaolin in paper to rise 2.0 percent per year through 2015.
Brazil to surpass US as top kaolin exporter by 2015
The global trade market for kaolin is extremely active due to production being heavily concentrated in the US, China,and Brazil, which together accounted for over half of world kaolin shipments in 2010. The US was the world leader in both production and net exports in 2010. However, production of kaolin in the US has declined in recent years, while production in Brazil has grown especially quickly, as producers have moved to take advantage of the numerous high-quality kaolin deposits in the Amazon Basin region. By 2015, Brazil is projected to overtake the US to become the world’s largest exporter of kaolin. Imports are greatest in the Western Europe region, which hosts a number of advanced manufacturing economies, with only the United Kingdom being a major kaolin net exporter in the region.
This upcoming Freedonia industry study, World Kaolin, is priced at $5900. It presents historical demand data (2000, 2005, 2010) plus forecasts for 2015 and 2020 by market, world region and for 20 countries. The study also details market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 29 global industry competitors.
Profiles 29 global players including BASF, Imerys, KaMin, Quarzwerke, SCR-Sibelco, Thiele Kaolin and Vale
This study analyzes the global market for kaolin, which for the purposes of this study is defined to be processed (e.g., washed, beneficiated) products derived from crude kaolin clay deposits. Production data therefore represents the final weight of products produced, not the weight of crude kaolin mined.
Historical data (2000, 2005, 2010) and forecasts to 2015 and 2020 are provided for kaolin supply and demand by market (e.g., paper, ceramics, other markets), for world regions (e.g., North America, Western Europe) and major national markets in metric tons. Major national market sizes are also provided in US dollars.
Macroeconomic and demographic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated August 2011. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) historical data are derived from the national income and products accounts from the rganisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) for its member countries, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund for its member countries that are not part of the OECD or EBRD. Sources of GDP estimates for other countries are based on information from the World Bank and a variety of sources including the countries’ statistical bureaus. GDP forecasts are developed from a consensus of public agencies and private firms.
All estimates of gross domestic product and components of GDP are done in terms of constant purchasing power parity in a benchmark year (2009) that is one year before the base year (2010) used in this study. Purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are obtained from the OECD, Eurostat, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the US Central Intelligence Agency and selected other sources. These purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are based on gross domestic product data expressed in the individual countries’ local currency, which are then converted to US dollars by valuing each country’s output at US prices in the benchmark year. This approach values the same physical output at a consistent price for all countries, thereby reducing the distorting influence of different price levels in the different countries. The alternative approach of using exchange rates to convert local currency GDP to US dollars would tend to overvalue the output of countries with high average price levels and undervalue the output of countries with low average price levels, because exchange rate conversions only partially reflect the relative prices for goods and services that are domestically consumed and invested. Furthermore, factors other than relative prices, such as demand and supply in currency markets, interest rates and capital flows, affect exchange rates.
Once the GDP values for a country are estimated for the benchmark year, we then calculate inflation-adjusted GDP for all other years for that country based on historical and forecast growth rates of GDP expressed in inflationadjusted units of that country’s local currency. This approach ensures that the GDP series for any given country is an accurate index of changes in inflationadjusted GDP for that country. However, it also implicitly assumes that the price structures across countries do not change from those of the benchmark year. Therefore, caution should be used in comparing the relative GDP of countries in years other than the benchmark year. If the ratio of prices across two countries in a given year differs from the ratio of prices across those countries in the benchmark year, then the change in the relative sizes of those two economies as measured will not accurately reflect changes in output.
The benchmark year is chosen to be one year prior to the base year for the study for reasons of data availability. One benefit of that choice is that the ratio of prices across countries in the base year is usually similar to that in the benchmark year. Therefore, the ratio of real GDP between two countries in the base year of 2010 is generally a reasonably accurate representation of the relative sizes of their economies.
A wide variety of primary and secondary sources were used in the compilation of this report. These include national and regional statistical agencies and foreign embassies. The US Bureau of the Census, United Nations, OECD, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, European Union and various national government statistical publications were among the public sector data sources utilized. Also useful were market data and background literature provided by various industry and trade associations, including but not limited to Ceramic Industry, Clay Minerals, Industrial Minerals, Paint & Coatings Industry and Paper Age. Used extensively in framing the industry and market environments and as input to market size assessments were corporate reports, SEC Form 10-K filings, product catalogs, and security analyst and brokerage reports.