Epidemiology: Small Cell Lung Cancer – Prognosis remains poor during forecast period

Report Summary

Datamonitor epidemiologists expect the number of total incident cases of small cell lung cancer to remain stable in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) over the next 10 years.

Features and benefits

• Gain insight to market potential, including a robust 10- year epidemiology forecast of SCLC incident cases
• Understand the key risk factors associated with SCLC.

Highlights

The epidemiology of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) has remained unchanged over the last decade. Nearly all cases of SCLC are due to cigarette smoking and rarely occur in non-smokers or people who have never smoked. SCLC is the most aggressive form of lung cancer, starting in the bronchi then quickly metastasizing to other parts of the body.

In 2010 there were roughly 82,000 diagnosed incident cases of lung cancer in the seven major markets, and approximately 100,400 diagnosed incident cases are predicted for 2020. The number of incident cases of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is expected to remain fairly stable throughout the forecast period.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Disease background
Forecasted results

DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA
Overview of lung cancer
Classification of small cell lung cancer
Signs and symptoms of lung cancer
Diagnostic criteria for lung cancer

GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
Smoking trends dictate lung cancer incidence
Incidence rates reflect exposure to tobacco smoke
Survival rates for lung cancer are the lowest of any cancer
Mortality rates are nearly equivalent to incident cases
Prevalence

DRIVERS OF SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER EPIDEMIOLOGY
Up to 95% of lung cancer cases could be eliminated if smoking were eradicated
Other environmental factors may work synergistically with smoking to increase lung cancer risk
Current screening methods do not improve survival
Late presentation and diagnosis limit treatment options to surgery

EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER
Overview
Population denominators
Cancer registries: age- and sex-specific incidence rates
Subpopulations
Age
Stage
Description of methods
Statistical analysis
US
Japan
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK

EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Diagnosed incident cases of lung cancer (all types)
The number of incident cases of lung cancer (all types) will remain stable from 2010 to 2020
German men will have the highest age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer (all types)
Segmentation of incident lung cancer cases (all types) in 2010
Diagnosed incident cases of small cell lung cancer
The number of incident cases of SCLC will remain stable from 2010 to 2020
Spanish women will have the lowest age-standardized incidence rate of SCLC
Segmentation of incident small cell lung cancer in 2010

DISCUSSION
The strength of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal articles
Websites

APPENDIX
Module methodology

List of Tables

Table: Diagnosis and survival rates for lung cancer (all types), by stage
Table: Cancer registry data sources for the seven major markets
Table: Data sources for stage distribution and survival for lung cancer (all types)
Table: Incident lung cancer cases (all types) in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Table: Age-specific incident cases of lung cancer (all types) in the seven major markets, 2010
Table: Sex-specific incident cases of lung cancer (all types) in the seven major markets, 2010
Table: Diagnosed incident cases of small cell lung cancer in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Table: Age-specific incident cases of small cell lung cancer in the seven major markets, 2010
Table: Sex-specific incident cases of small cell lung cancer in the seven major markets, 2010

List of Figures

Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer (all types) incidence rates (per 100,000 people) in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-specific lung cancer (all types) incidence rates (per 100,000 people) for men in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-specific lung cancer (all types) incidence rates (per 100,000 people) for women in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer incidence rates for men in the seven major markets, 1988–2002
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer incidence rates for women in the seven major markets, 1988–2002
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000 people) in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-specific lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000 people) for men in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-specific lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000 people) for women in the seven major markets, 2008
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates for men in the seven major markets, 1980–2007
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates for women in the seven major markets, 1980–2007
Figure: Trends in incident lung cancer cases (all types) in all ages in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Figure: Age-standardized lung cancer (all types) incidence rates for both genders in the seven major markets, 2010
Figure: Trends in diagnosed incident small cell lung cancer in all ages in the seven major markets, 2010–20
Figure: Age-standardized small cell lung cancer incidence rates for both genders in the seven major markets, 2010