Market and Product Forecasts: Psoriasis – Novel products and current biologics to fuel future market growth

Published: November 2011
No. of Pages: 68
  

Report Summary

Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer) remains the market leader, with 32% of an estimated $4.5bn psoriasis market in 2011. However, Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai) is closing in, with 29% market share. Still, Stelara (ustekinumab; Janssen Biotech) is trailblazing the US and EU markets, threatening both brands. By 2020, biosimilars, generics and four product launches will grow the market to $5.5bn.

Features and benefits

  • Access Datamonitor’s patient based psoriasis market forecast of over 50 products in the seven major markets, with clear methodology and assumptions.
  • Assess current and future patient-numbers and enhance understanding of the impact future events may have on these.
  • Evaluate which novel products Datamonitor expects to launch over the coming decade, and how each of these will alter the market.
  • Gain insight into the psoriasis competitive landscape, and determine which brands drive growth.

Highlights

Owing to delayed competition from key contender Ozespa (briakinumab; Abbott), a favorable dosing regimen, and expansion into Japan in March 2011, Stelara will continue its ascendance in the seven major psoriasis markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK), reaching peak sales of $1,516m by 2016.

AIN457 (secukinumab; Novartis) could be the first-to-market interleukin (IL)-17 drug for psoriasis. Akin to IL brand Stelara’s superb performance to date, Datamonitor forecasts high uptake for AIN457, with sales of $252m by 2020, following launch in 2014. Making AIN457 a key growth driver of the systemic anti-psoriasis class over the next decade.

Ozespa’s future in psoriasis remains unclear, after its US and EU regulatory filings were withdrawn in January 2011, owing to safety issues. Datamonitor projects commercial success hinged on Abbott resubmitting US and EU regulatory applications. With estimated launch by 2013, its sales are forecast to reach $308m by 2020.

Market and Product Forecasts: Psoriasis – Novel products and current biologics to fuel future market growth

Table Of Contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports

MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for psoriasis
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
Additional forecast methodology

MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
Novel biologic and oral pipeline therapies set to intensify future competition for key marketed biologics
US market to experience positive growth over the coming decade
Availability of biologics boosts sales in Japanese psoriasis market
Continuing uptake of biologics coupled with new product launches will spur growth in the EU
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK

PRODUCT FORECASTS: BIOLOGICS
Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Stiefel/Takeda)
Forecast assumptions
Enbrel forecast 2011–20
Humira (adalimumab; Abbott/Eisai)
Forecast assumptions
Humira forecast 2011–20
Remicade (infliximab; Janssen Biotech/Johnson & Johnson/Merck & Co./Mitsubishi Tanabe)
Forecast assumptions
Remicade forecast 2011–20
Stelara (ustekinumab; Janssen Biotech/Janssen-Cilag/Johnson & Johnson)
Forecast assumptions
Stelara forecast 2011–20
Ozespa (briakinumab/ABT-874; Abbott)
Forecast assumptions
Ozespa forecast 2011–20
AIN457 (secukinumab; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
AIN457 forecast 2011–20

PRODUCT FORECASTS: SMALL MOLECULES (TOPICAL)
Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan (calcipotriol; Leo Pharma/Intendis/Torii/Teikoku Medix)
Forecast assumptions
Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan forecast 2011–20
Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex (calcipotriol and betamethasone; Leo Pharma/Intendis)
Forecast assumptions
Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex 2011–20
Vectical/Silkis (calcitriol; Galderma)
Forecast assumptions
Vectical/Silkis forecast 2011–20

PRODUCT FORECASTS: SMALL MOLECULES (ORAL)
Tofacitinib (formerly tasocitinib, CP-690,550; Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Tofacitinib forecast 2011–20
Apremilast (CC-10004; Celgene)
Forecast assumptions
Apremilast forecast 2011–20

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX
Contributing experts
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Physician sample breakdown
Report methodology

List Of Tables

Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in psoriasis by ATC code, 2011
Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in psoriasis across the seven major markets, 2011
Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products in psoriasis in the seven major markets, 2011–20
Table: Psoriasis sales across the seven major markets, by drug class and brand ($m), 2011–20
Table: Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Stiefel/Takeda) sales forecast for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Table: Humira sales ($m) for psoriasis in the seven major markets, 2011–20
Table: Remicade sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Table: Stelara sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Table: Ozespa sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Table: AIN457 sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Table: Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Table: Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Table: Vectical/Silkis sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Table: Tofacitinib (oral and ointment) sales forecasts for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Table: Apremilast sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Table: Dermatologists sample breakdown, 2011

List Of Figures

Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for psoriasis, 2011
Figure: Psoriasis sales across the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Datamonitor’s estimated launch dates for pipeline drugs for psoriasis, as well as other key events expected to impact brands, 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales across the seven major markets, by drug class (%), 2011 and 2020
Figure: Psoriasis sales in the US, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in Japan, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales across the five major EU markets, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in France, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in Germany, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in Italy, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in Spain, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Psoriasis sales in the UK, by drug class ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Enbrel (etanercept; Amgen/Pfizer/Stiefel/Takeda) sales forecast for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Humira sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Remicade sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Stelara sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Ozespa sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Figure: AIN457 sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Dovonex/Daivonex/Psorcutan sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Dovobet/Daivobet/Taclonex sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Vectical/Silkis sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Tofacitinib (oral and ointment) sales forecasts for psoriasis in the seven major markets ($m), 2011–20
Figure: Apremilast sales for psoriasis in the seven major markets excluding Japan ($m), 2011–20

Published By: Datamonitor
Product Code: Datamonitor25478


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