World demand to rise 4.8% annually through 2015
The global siding market is forecast to grow 4.8 percent per year through 2015 to over five billion square meters, with demand in residential and nonresidential applications growing at similar paces. Heightened residential demand will be measured against a low 2010 base in many industrialized countries, which are expected to rebound somewhat from the losses of the 2005-2010 period. Residential demand for siding will remain strong in developing countries as personal income levels rise and construction practices improve, increasing the number of buildings using siding. Nonresidential demand for siding will grow most rapidly in the developing
Asia/Pacific and Africa/Mideast regions, where real GDP is expected to rise at rates above the global average, fueling building construction spending.
North America, Asia/Pacific regions to post strong gains
North America is projected to be by far the most rapidly growing regional siding market during the 2010-2015 period. Demand will rise the fastest in the United States as the US housing sector recovers somewhat from its collapse in the previous period, but US siding sales in 2015 will remain well below the level reached in 2005. Led by China and India, and assisted by recoveries in the Japanese, South Korean, and Australian markets, the Asia/Pacific region is expected
to post strong gains. Growth in the other developing regions will be spurred by ongoing industrial and commercial development and rising personal income levels, which will make siding roducts more affordable for residential construction. In Eastern Europe, growth will be restrained by a declining population and decreasing demand for new housing. Sales in Western Europe will also not return to the levels achieved in 2005. Masonry and concrete products will account for nearly three-quarters of sales through 2015. Global demand for these products is expected to grow lmost five percent per year, fueled by recoveries in the housing sectors of the United States and Western Europe. Brick and tile products will enjoy above-average sales growth in China, India and the Africa/Mideast region. Between 2010 and 2015, demand for fiber cement siding will grow most rapidly, taking market share from competitive products. Japan will continue to be the leading national market for fiber cement siding, but gains will also be boosted by strong growth in China and India. Sales of vinyl siding are expected to increase rapidly because of higher levels of US demand, but vinyl siding will remain a niche product outside North America, accounting for only a small portion of demand.
Details on these and other findings are presented in the new Freedonia industry study, World Siding (Cladding), priced at $6100. It presents historical demand data for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010, as well as forecasts for 2015 and 2020 by cement type, market, world region and for 20 countries. In addition, the study considers key market environment factors, assesses global industry structure, evaluates company market share data and profiles 42 industry players worldwide.
This study can help you:
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COM PANY PRO FILES
Profiles 42 global industry players such as HeidelbergCement, JS Group, James Hardie, Nichiha, Saint-Gobain and Wienerberger
This study analyzes the global market for exterior siding or cladding for residential and nonresidential buildings. The following types of products are covered: masonry and concrete (i.e., stone, brick, tile, stucco, exterior insulation and finish systems (EIFS), nonloadbearing concrete and fiber cement); metal (including aluminum and steel siding and metal panels); vinyl; wood (plywood, hardboard, other engineered wood and wood shingles) and other siding. Primary loadbearing walls (of brick, concrete block, poured concrete, stone, etc.) are excluded from the scope of this study, as is glass curtain wall. Secondary products such as soffits and trim are excluded as well.
Historical data for 2000, 2005 and 2010 and forecasts to 2015 and 2020 are provided for siding demand by product type and by market on a country-bycountry basis, measured in million square meters. The term “demand” actually refers to “apparent consumption” and is defined as production (also referred to as “output” or “supply”) from a nation’s indigenous siding manufacturing facilities plus imports minus exports. It is used interchangeably with the terms
“market,” “sales” and “consumption.”
In addition, major global siding manufacturers are identified and profiled, and the key competitive variables are discussed. The entire report is framed within the world siding industry’s economic, technological and market environments, and therefore environmental variables affecting siding demand (especially building construction expenditures) are emphasized. World siding market share data by company presented in the “Industry Structure” section are estimated based on consultation with multiple sources. In addition, tabular details may not always add to totals due to rounding.
Data on global siding demand are derived from differing sources and developed from statistical relationships. As a result, variations are commonplace in this type of international reporting, and, consequently, data presented in this study are historically consistent but may differ from other
sources. Variances may occur because of definitional differences, undistributed exports, inventory accumulation and goods-in-transit.
Economic and demographic indicators presented in this study were obtained from The Freedonia Group Consensus Forecasts dated August 2011. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) historical data are derived from the national income and products accounts from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) for its member countries, from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for its member countries, and from the International Monetary Fund for its member countries that are not part of the OECD or EBRD. GDP estimates for other nations are based on information from the World Bank and a variety of other sources, including the countries’ statistical bureaus. GDP forecasts are developed from a consensus of public agencies and private firms.
All estimates of gross domestic product and components of GDP are done in terms of constant purchasing power parity in a benchmark year (2009) that is one year before the base year (2010) used in this study. Purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are obtained from the OECD, Eurostat, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the US Central Intelligence Agency and selected other sources. These purchasing power parity GDP estimates for the benchmark year are based on gross domestic product data expressed in the individual countries’ local currency, which are then converted to US dollars by valuing each country’s output at US prices in the benchmark year.
This approach values the same physical output at a consistent price for all countries, thereby reducing the distorting influence of different price levels in the different countries. The alternative approach of using exchange rates to convert local currency GDP to US dollars would tend to overvalue the output of countries with high average price levels and undervalue the output of countries with low average price levels, because exchange rate conversions only partially
reflect the relative prices for goods and services that are domestically consumed and invested. Furthermore, factors other than relative prices, such as demand and supply in currency markets, interest rates and capital flows, affect exchange rates.
Once the GDP values for a country are estimated for the benchmark year, we then calculate inflation-adjusted GDP for all other years for that country based on historical and forecast growth rates of GDP expressed in inflationadjusted units of that country’s local currency. This approach ensures that the GDP series for any given country is an accurate index of changes in inflationadjusted GDP for that country. However, it also implicitly assumes that the price structures across countries do not change from those of the benchmark year. Therefore, caution should be used in comparing the relative GDP of countries in years other than the benchmark year. If the ratio of prices across two countries in a given year differs from the ratio of prices across those countries in the benchmark year, then the change in the relative sizes of those two economies as measured will not accurately reflect changes in output.
The benchmark year is chosen to be one year prior to the base year for the study for reasons of data availability. One benefit of this choice is that the ratio of prices across countries in the base year is usually similar to that in the benchmark year. Therefore, the ratio of real GDP between two countries in the base year of 2010 is generally a reasonably accurate representation of the relative sizes of their economies.
A wide variety of primary and secondary sources were used in the compilation of this report. These include government statistical agencies, trade associations such as the Metal Cladding and Roofing Manufacturers Association of the UK and Vinyl Siding Institute of the US, industry experts, financial sources, and siding company sources. Public sector data sources used include the US Bureau of the Census, United Nations, OECD, World Bank, IMF, European Union and various national government statistical publications. Primary information was gathered through consultations with officers and marketing personnel of participating companies. Secondary data and background information were obtained from various trade publications,
including Concrete Homes, Concrete Products, ENR, Home Energy Magazine, Masonry, Metal Construction News, Professional Builder, Stone World and Walls & Ceilings. Corporate annual reports, SEC Form 10-K filings, product literature and other company information were also used in framing the industry and market environments and as input for market size assessments.