China – The Future of HNWIs to 2015: Opportunities for Wealth Managers and Private Banks

Report Summary

Synopsis

This report is the result of Wealth Insight’s extensive research covering the HNWI population and Wealth Management industry in China. It provides market size and forecasts of the HNWI population. By leveraging the Wealth Insight HNWI Database, it provides key demographic breakdowns such as city specific data.

Summary

China offers tremendous opportunities for the private banking industry as a result of not only the substantial growth in the number of HNWI over the past few years, but especially because of the strong forecasted growth in volumes and wealth to 2015. This report not only provides detailed forecasts on expected HNWI asset allocation of China’s HNWI and UHNWI to 2015, but gives the reader the crucial insight necessary to effectively act on those projections. In addition to providing a comprehensive and robust background of the Chinese economy, including, uniquely, detailed analysis of economic and political risks to HNWI wealth creation, the report provides robust projections of the volume, wealth and asset allocation of China’s HNWI. The report also couches these findings in an analysis of China’s Wealth Management and Private Banking sector, and the opportunities therein. But what really sets the report apart is its analysis and presentation of the demographic trends and findings of the proprietary Wealth Insight HNWI Database.

Scope

The report features:

• Independent market sizing of China’s HNWI
• Most up to date and thorough analysis of the demographic breakdown of China’s HNWI
• Volume, wealth and allocation forecasts to 2015
• Details of the development, challenges and opportunities of the Wealth Management and Private Banking sector in China
• City specific ratings and breakdowns of wealth, wealth growth and industries that HNWI work in for each city
• Current insights into the drivers of HNWI wealth
• Family office information

Reasons To Buy

• The Wealth Insight HNWI Database is an unparalleled resource and the leading database of its kind. Compiled and curated by a team of expert research specialists, the HNWI Database comprises up to one hundred data-points on over 100,000 HNWI around the world. With the HNWI Database as the foundation for our research and analysis, we are able obtain an unsurpassed level of granularity, insight and authority on the HNWI universe in each of the countries and regions we cover.
• Comprehensive forecasts to 2015.
• Information on sources of wealth for HNWIs in each major city, by industry and other measures.

Key Highlights

• There are currently 1.3 million HNWIs in China with a combined wealth of US$4.3 trillion, which equates to 26% of the total wealth held in the country.
• WealthInsight expects HNWI wealth to increase at a CAGR of 14.7% over the forecast period to reach US$7.5 trillion in 2015, while volume will grow at a CAGR of 13.5% to reach over 2.1 million in 2015.
• While Beijing and Shanghai continue to provide opportunities for Wealth Managers and Private Bankers looking to enter China’s potentially lucrative wealth market, there is latent and significant untapped potential in China’s Tier II and Tier III cities.
• Hangzhou should be at the top of the list for anyone looking to build a thriving wealth business in China. Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu and Fuzhou round out the top five, each presenting unique opportunities and huge market potential for the wealth industry.
• Our research shows that over 50,000 Chinese HNWI are looking to move abroad each year. Indeed, much of the frothiness in Hong Kong’s property market is due to demand from Chinese HNWI, who buy luxury homes in Hong Kong in order to gain Hong Kong citizenship.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

2 Executive Summary

3 Wealth Sector Fundamentals
3.1 Political Background of the Wealth Sector
3.2 Economic Background to the Wealth Sector
3.3 Benchmarking Chinese Wealth in Context
3.3.1 Distribution of wealth
3.3.2 Alternate scenarios for China’s economy to 2015

4 Findings from the WealthInsight HNWI Database
4.1 Trends in HNWI Wealth to 2015
4.1.1 HNWI trend analysis
4.1.2 HNWI volume trend analysis
4.1.3 HNWI wealth trend analysis
4.1.4 Per-capita HNWI net worth trend analysis
4.1.5 Trends of the wealth bands
4.1.6 Chinese HNWI demographic breakdown by age
4.1.7 Chinese HNWI demographic breakdown by gender
4.1.8 Sources of wealth: inherited vs earned vs self-made
4.1.9 Regional distribution of HNWIs
4.2 UHNWIs
4.2.1 UHNWI volume trend analysis
4.2.2 UHNWI wealth trend analysis
4.2.3 UHNWI per-capita net worth trend analysis
4.2.4 Demographic breakdown of Chinese UHNWIs
4.2.5 Demographic breakdown of Chinese UHNWIs by age
4.2.6 Source of wealth
4.2.7 Inherited vs earned vs self-made
4.2.8 Job titles of UHNWIs
4.2.9 Region
4.2.10 Industry, forecasts and analysis
4.2.11 Sector forecasts to 2015
4.2.12 Geographic analysis of UHNWIs by industry
4.2.13 WealthInsight’s wealth sector opportunity rankings
4.3 UHNWIs – Billionaires
4.3.1 Market Overview
4.3.2 Billionaire volume trend analysis
4.3.3 Billionaire wealth trend analysis
4.3.4 Billionaires: per-capita worth trend analysis
4.3.5 Demographic breakdown of Chinese billionaires by age
4.3.6 Gender
4.3.7 Sources of billionaire wealth
4.3.8 Region
4.3.9 Industry
4.3.10 List of Chinese billionaires
4.4 UHNWIs – Centimillionaires
4.4.1 Market overview
4.4.2 Centimillionaires volume trend analysis
4.4.3 Centimillionaires wealth trend analysis
4.4.4 Centimillionaire per-capita worth trend analysis
4.4.5 Demographic breakdown of Chinese centimillionaires by age
4.5 UHNWIs – Affluent Millionaires
4.5.1 Market overview
4.5.2 Affluent millionaire volume trend analysis
4.5.3 Affluent millionaire wealth trend analysis
4.5.4 Affluent millionaires per-capita worth trend analysis
4.6 Core HNWIs
4.6.1 Market overview
4.6.2 Core HNWI volume trend analysis
4.6.3 Core HNWI wealth trend analysis
4.6.4 Core HNWIs per-capita net worth trend analysis
4.7 Core HNWIs – Mid-Tier Millionaires
4.7.1 Market overview
4.7.2 Mid-tier millionaires volume trend analysis
4.7.3 Mid-tier millionaires wealth trend analysis
4.7.4 Mid-tier millionaires per-capita worth trend analysis
4.8 Core HNWIs – Lower-Tier Millionaires
4.8.1 Market overview
4.8.2 Lower-tier millionaires volume trend analysis
4.8.3 Lower-tier millionaires wealth trend analysis
4.8.4 Lower-tier millionaires per-capita worth trend analysis

5 Analysis of Chinese HNWI Investment
5.1 Analysis by Asset Class
5.1.1 Changing trends in liquid assets – equity, fixed-income and cash deposits
5.1.2 Trends in alternative assets
5.1.3 Trends in “art, wine and wheels”
5.1.4 Trends of investments in real estate
5.1.5 Trends of investments in cash and deposits
5.1.6 Trends of investments in fixed-income
5.1.7 Trends of investments in equity
5.1.8 Trends of investments in business interest
5.2 Analysis of Foreign Investments
5.2.1 Trend of investments in rest of Asia-Pacific
5.2.2 Trend of investments in North America and Europe
5.2.3 Trend of investments in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America

6 Competitive Landscape of the Wealth Sector
6.1 Competitive Structure
6.2 Wealth Management and Private Banking Industry – A Paradigm Shift
6.3 Wealth Management and Private Banking Industry – Competitive Structure
6.4 Wealth Managers and Private Banks
6.4.1 Wealth managers
6.4.2 Private banks
6.4.3 Foreign banks and MNCs
6.4.4 Joint ventures
6.4.5 Domestic providers
6.5 Leading Companies in the Wealth Management and Private Banking Industry
6.6 Family Offices
6.6.1 Multi-family offices
6.6.2 Single-family offices
6.6.3 Trusts
6.7 Offshore Wealth Management and Private Banking Industry
6.8 China Wealth Management and Private Banking Industry – Behavioral Mapping
6.9 Challenges and Opportunities for the Wealth Sector in China
6.9.1 Regulatory environment
6.9.2 Tax
6.9.3 Human capital
6.9.4 Move away from self-management
6.9.5 Underdeveloped product offerings
6.9.6 Demand for intergenerational wealth transfer and younger clientele
6.9.7 Philanthropy
6.9.8 Business development the Chinese way

7 Appendix
7.1 Pertinent Regulations
7.1.1 Regulations on banks
7.1.2 Regulations on foreign direct investment
7.1.3 Regulations on wealth management
7.1.4 Regulations on offshore investment
7.1.5 Regulations on foreign investment in china
7.1.6 Regulations on leveraged buyouts and mergers and acquisitions
7.1.7 Regulations on hedge funds and derivatives
7.1.8 Regulations on private equity investment
7.2 Key Economic Trends and Drivers
7.2.1 Renminbi to US dollar moving annual average exchange rate
7.2.2 Real GDP growth
7.2.3 Per-capita GDP
7.2.4 Gross savings rate as a percentage of GDP
7.2.5 Domestic Market Capitalization
7.2.6 Housing price index
7.2.7 Commodity index
7.2.8 Foreign direct investment
7.2.9 Investments of FIIs in equity products
7.2.10 Inflation rate
7.2.11 Repo rate
7.2.12 Balance of payments
7.2.13 Stock market performance
7.2.14 Fiscal position
7.2.15 HNWI wealth vs GDP
7.2.16 Capital formation as a percentage of GDP
7.2.17 Disposable income as a percentage of GDP
7.3 Supplementary Regional and Sector Specifics

8 About WealthInsight

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: HNWI Wealth Band and Group Definitions
Table 2: Regional Definitions
Table 3: HNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Table 4: HNWI – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Table 5: HNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth (US$ Million), 2007–2015
Table 6: HNWIs – Volume Distribution Wealth Pyramid, 2011
Table 7: HNWIs – Wealth Distribution Wealth Pyramid, 2011
Table 8: HNWIs – Regional Distribution, 2011
Table 9: UHNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Table 10: UHNWIs – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Table 11: UHNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth (US$ Million), 2007–2015
Table 12: UHNWIs – Cities by Sector, 2007–2010
Table 13: UHNWIs – Private Banking Potential: China’s Top 15 to 2015
Table 14: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Table 15: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Industries by Region, 2007–2015
Table 16: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Top 20
Table 17: UHNWIs – Centimillionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Table 18: UHNWIs – Affluent Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Table 19: Core HNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Table 20: Core HNWIs – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Table 21: Core HNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Table 22: Core HNWIs – Mid-Tier Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Table 23: Core HNWIs – Lower-Tier Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Table 24: HNWIs – Liquid Asset Composition (%), 2007–2015
Table 25: HNWIs – Liquid Asset Composition (%), 2007–2015
Table 26: HNWIs – Trends of Investments in Alternative Assets (%), 2007–2015
Table 27: HNWIs – Alternative Asset Composition (%), 2007–2015
Table 28: HNWIs – Trends in “Art, Wine and Wheels”, 2006–2010
Table 29: HNWIs – Change in Foreign Asset Allocation, 2007–2015
Table 30: HNWIs – Foreign Allocations by Asset Class, 2007–2015
Table 31: HNWIs – Global Distribution of Foreign Investments, 2007–2015
Table 32: HNWIs – Trends of Foreign Investments, 2007–2015
Table 33: Major Companies in China’s Wealth Management Industry
Table 34: RMB to US$ Moving Annual Average Exchange Rate, 2006–2015
Table 35: Real GDP Growth Rate, 2006–2015
Table 36: GDP Per Capita, 2006–2015
Table 37: Gross Savings as a Percentage of Real GDP, 2006–2015
Table 38: Domestic Market Capitalization, 2006–2010
Table 39: Housing Price Index, 2006–2010
Table 40: Commodity Indices, 2006–2015
Table 41: Foreign Direct Investments, 2006–2015
Table 42: Investments of FIIs in Equity Products, 2006–2009
Table 43: Inflation Rate, 2006–2015
Table 44: Repo Rate, 2006–2015
Table 45: Balance of Payments, 2006–2010
Table 46: Stock Market Performance, 2006–2010
Table 47: External and Fiscal Debt as Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015
Table 48: HNWI Wealth vs GDP, 2006–2010
Table 49: Capital Formation as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015
Table 50: Disposable Income as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: HNWI Wealth Band Definitions
Figure 2: WealthInsight Map of China
Figure 3: HNWI Wealth Sector Market Attractiveness, 2007–2015
Figure 4: HNWIs – China vs RoW and Asia-Pacific
Figure 5: HNWIs – Growth Factor Correlation, 2007–2015
Figure 6: HNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Figure 7: HNWI – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Figure 8: HNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth (US$ Million), 2007–2015
Figure 9: HNWIs – Volume Distribution Wealth Pyramid, 2011
Figure 10: HNWIs – Wealth Distribution Wealth Pyramid, 2011
Figure 11: HNWIs – Age Distribution, 2011
Figure 12: HNWIs – Source of Wealth, 2011
Figure 13: HNWIs – Regional Distribution, 2011
Figure 14: HNWIs – Regional Distribution: Key Regions, 2011
Figure 15: HNWIs – Growth in Minority and Inland Regions
Figure 16: UHNWIs – Analysis of Wealth Band Evolution, 2007–2015
Figure 17: UHNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Figure 18: UHNWIs – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Figure 19: UHNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth (US$ Million), 2007–2015
Figure 20: UHNWIs – Age Comparison by Industry Type
Figure 21: UHNWIs – Title, Size and Change in Wealth
Figure 22: UHNWIs – Regional Distribution by Region
Figure 23: UHNWIs – Distribution by Primary Source of Wealth
Figure 24: UHNWIs – Sector Forecasts to 2015
Figure 25: UHNWIs – Distribution of Industries by Tier
Figure 26: UHNWIs – Growth In Wealth vs Share by Region: Finance, and Technology and Software
Figure 27: UHNWIs – Growth in Wealth vs Share by Region: Basic Materials and Manufacturing
Figure 28: UHNWIs – Growth in UHNWIs by Region
Figure 29: UHNWIs – Regional Comparison by Leading Sector Share
Figure 30: UHNWIs – Share of High-Human-Capital-Development Sectors by Region
Figure 31: UHNWIs – City Comparison, 2007–2010
Figure 32: UHNWIs – Private Banking Opportunity Rating Map – Top Five
Figure 33: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Figure 34: HNWIs – Distribution by Primary Source of Wealth, 2011
Figure 35: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Age Distribution, 2011
Figure 36: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Regional Distribution by City, 2011
Figure 37: UHNWIs – Billionaires: Distribution by Primary Source of Wealth, 2011
Figure 38: UHNWIs – Centimillionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Figure 39: UHNWIs – Centimillionaires: Age Distribution, 2011
Figure 40: UHNWIs – Affluent Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Figure 41: Core HNWIs – Volume by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Figure 42: Core HNWIs – Wealth by Wealth Band (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Figure 43: Core HNWIs – Per-Capita Net Worth by Wealth Band, 2007–2015
Figure 44: Core HNWIs – Mid-Tier Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Figure 45: Core HNWIs – Lower-Tier Millionaires: Market Overview, 2007–2015
Figure 46: HNWIs – Asset Class Composition, 2007–2015
Figure 47: HNWIs – Changing Trends in Total Liquid Assets (% of Total Assets), 2007–2015
Figure 48: HNWIs – Liquid Assets Composition (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Figure 49: HNWIs – Trends of Investments in Alternative Assets (US$ Billion), 2007–2015
Figure 50: HNWIs – Trends in “Art, Wine and Wheels”, 2006–2010
Figure 51: HNWIs – 2015 Foreign Asset Allocation vs Growth
Figure 52: HNWIs – Global Distribution of Foreign Investments, 2007–2015
Figure 53: Wealth Management Industry – Structure
Figure 54: Offshore and Onshore Wealth Management Segments in China
Figure 55: China Wealth Management Industry – Behavioral Mapping, 2011
Figure 56: INR to US$ Moving Annual Average Exchange Rate, 2006–2015
Figure 57: Real GDP Growth (%), 2006–2015
Figure 58: GDP Per Capita, 2006–2015
Figure 59: Gross Savings as a Percentage of Real GDP, 2006–2015
Figure 60: Domestic Market Capitalization, 2006–2010
Figure 61: Housing Price Index, 2006–2010
Figure 62: Commodity Indices, 2006–2015
Figure 63: Foreign Direct Investments, 2006–2015
Figure 64: Investments of FIIs in Equity Products, 2006–2009
Figure 65: Inflation Rate, 2006–2015
Figure 66: Repo Rate, 2006–2015
Figure 67: Balance of Payments, 2006–2010
Figure 68: Stock Market Performance, 2006–2010
Figure 69: External and Fiscal Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015
Figure 70: HNWI Wealth vs GDP, 2006–2010
Figure 71: Capital Formation as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015
Figure 72: Disposable Income as a Percentage of GDP, 2006–2015
Figure 73: Growth in UHNWI Wealth by Region, 2007–2010
Figure 74: UHNWI Wealth Growth by Sector, 2007–2010
Figure 75: Bohai Economic Rim – Sector Growth, 2007–2010
Figure 76: Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone – Sector Growth, 2007–2010
Figure 77: Pearl River Delta – Sector Growth, 2007–2010
Figure 78: Yangtze River Delta – Sector Growth, 2007–2010
Figure 79: Basic Materials and Manufacturing by Key Region, 2007–2010
Figure 80: Finance and Technology by Key Region, 2007–2010