Table Of Contents
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for cancer therapies
Antihormonal therapies by ATC class
Cytotoxic therapies by ATC class
Targeted therapies by ATC class
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
Additional forecast methodology
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Cancer therapy brands included in this report
Seven major market top 20 oncology therapy brands
The top 20 across the seven major markets will be dominated by targeted therapies by 2020
US top 20 oncology therapy brands
The US top 20 will fragment as more targeted therapies enter the market
Japan top 20 oncology therapy brands
Patent expiries will have a lower impact on the Japanese top 20
Five major EU markets top 20 oncology therapy brands
Branded drugs will resist generic erosion leading to smaller changes in the top 20
France top 20 oncology therapy brands
France maintains the largest top 20 market in the five major EU markets over the forecast period
Germany top 20 oncology therapy brands
Price cuts and high generic erosion will decrease the size of Germany’s top 20 brands
Italy top 20 oncology therapy brands
Brand loyalty will maintain the majority of the top 20
Spain top 20 oncology therapy brands
Price cuts will limit the growth of targeted therapies in the top 20
UK top 20 oncology therapy brands
The UK’s strict cost-effective reimbursement policy will continue to limit sales of the top 20 brands
PRODUCT FORECASTS
Brand dynamics
Roche’s monoclonal antibody franchise will comprise the top three in 2010 and 2020
Avastin (bevacizumab; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Forecast assumptions
Avastin forecast 2010–20
Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Forecast assumptions
Rituxan forecast 2010–20
Herceptin (trastuzumab; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Forecast assumptions
Herceptin forecast 2010–20
Gleevec/Glivec (imatinib; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
Gleevec forecast 2010–20
Taxotere (docetaxel; Sanofi)
Forecast assumptions
Taxotere forecast 2010–20
Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA)
Forecast assumptions
Erbitux forecast 2010–20
Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene)
Forecast assumptions
Revlimid forecast 2010–20
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price assumptions
Report methodology
LIST OF TABLES
Table: Definition of the cancer market, 2011
Table: Patent expiry dates for antihormonal therapies in the top 20, 2010–20
Table: Patent expiry dates for cytotoxic therapies in the top 20, 2010–20
Table: Patent expiry dates for targeted therapies in the top 20, 2010–20
Table: Drugs included in the top 20 cancer therapy brands, 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Japan, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the five major EU markets, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the five major EU markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in France, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of top 20 cancer therapy brands in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Germany, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of top 20 cancer therapy brands in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Spain, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of top 20 cancer therapy brands in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the UK, 2010
Table: Forecast sales of top 20 cancer therapy brands in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded cancer therapy sales in the seven major markets, 2010 and 2020
Table: Avastin sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Rituxan sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Herceptin sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Gleevec sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Taxotere sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Erbitux sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Revlimid sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure: Company-reported sales-based forecast methodology, 2011
Figure: Unevented and evented company-reported sales-based forecast, 2011
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the seven major markets, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the US, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Japan, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the five major EU markets by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in France, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Germany, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Italy, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in Spain, by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Sales of the top 20 cancer therapy brands in the UK by drug class ($m), 2010 and 2020
Figure: Key branded drug sales, 2010–20
Figure: Avastin sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Rituxan sales by country, ($m), 2010-20
Figure: Herceptin sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Gleevec sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Taxotere sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Erbitux sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Revlimid sales, by country ($m), 2010–20