Market and Product Forecasts: Targeted Cancer Therapies - Trend towards personalized medicine will lead to market fragmentation

Introduction

The targeted therapies class boasts several of the top-selling anticancer brands, and has fueled most of the recent rapid growth of the oncology market as a whole. In the next decade, several blockbuster targeted therapies will undergo patent expiries and the market will become more fragmented as new targeted therapies are developed for niche populations.

Features and benefits

• Sales forecasts of targeted cancer therapy brands over the period 2010-20 in the seven major pharmaceutical markets.
• Includes an overview of the overall targeted therapies market as well as country specific and brand specific forecasts.
• Analysis of the impact of generics and biosimilars on the marketed targeted cancer therapy brands over the forecast period 2010-20
• Analysis of pharmacoeconomic constraints likely to affect sales growth in the seven major pharmaceutical markets.

Highlights

Datamonitor forecasts the currently marketed targeted cancer therapies to achieve collective sales of $34.5bn by 2017 in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2010 to 2017.

Datamonitor forecasts the sales value of currently marketed targeted cancer therapies will contract at a CAGR of -3.5% from 2017 to 2020, owing to patent expiries of some key brands in this class.

Monoclonal antibodies will remain the dominant class in the targeted therapies market accounting for 62% of the sales of currently marketed targeted cancer therapies by 2020.

Table Of Contents

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports

MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for the targeted cancer therapies class
Targeted cancer therapies by ATC class
Targeted cancer therapies not included in this report
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
Additional forecast methodology

MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
US forecast
Japan forecast
France forecast
Germany forecast
Italy forecast
Spain forecast
UK forecast

PRODUCT FORECASTS
Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda)
Forecast assumptions
Adcetris forecast 2010–20
Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
Afinitor forecast 2010–20
Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline)
Forecast assumptions
Arzerra forecast 2010–20
Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai)
Forecast assumptions
Avastin forecast 2010–20
Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca)
Forecast assumptions
Caprelsa forecast 2010–20
Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA)
Forecast assumptions
Erbitux forecast 2010–20
Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
Gleevec forecast 2010–20
Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai)
Forecast assumptions
Herceptin forecast 2010–20
Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca)
Forecast assumptions
Iressa forecast 2010–20
Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx)
Forecast assumptions
Nexavar forecast 2010–20
Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene)
Forecast assumptions
Revlimid forecast 2010–20
Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku Kogyo)
Forecast assumptions
Rituxan forecast 2010–20
Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Forecast assumptions
Sprycel forecast 2010–20
Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Sutent forecast 2010–20
Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche)
Forecast assumptions
Tarceva forecast 2010–20
Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis)
Forecast assumptions
Tasigna forecast 2010–20
Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene)
Forecast assumptions
Thalomid forecast 2010–20
Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Torisel forecast 2010–20
Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline)
Forecast assumptions
Tykerb forecast 2010–20
Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen)
Forecast assumptions
Vectibix forecast 2010–20
Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson)
Forecast assumptions
Velcade forecast 2010–20
Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline)
Forecast assumptions
Votrient forecast 2010–20
Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer)
Forecast assumptions
Xalkori forecast 2010–20
Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb)
Forecast assumptions
Yervoy forecast 2010–20
Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Plexxikon)
Forecast assumptions
Zelboraf forecast 2010–20

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites
Datamonitor reports

APPENDIX
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price assumptions
Report methodology

LIST OF TABLES

Table: Definition of the targeted cancer therapies market, 2011
Table: Patent expiries for targeted cancer therapies, 2011
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in the seven major markets ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the seven major markets, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in the US ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the US, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in Japan ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Japan, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales by class in France ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in Germany ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Germany, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in Italy ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Italy, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in Spain ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in Spain, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X3 antineoplastic monoclonal antibodies class in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X4 antineoplastic protein kinase inhibitors class in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L1X9 all other antineoplastics class in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Key branded and generic sales for the L4A0 immunosuppressive agents class in the UK ($m), 2010–20
Table: Targeted therapy sales in the UK, by class ($m), 2010–20
Table: Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA) sales, by country, ($m), 2010–20
Table: Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer) sales, by country, ($m), 2010–20
Table: Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Table: Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Plexxikon) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure: Company-reported sales-based forecast methodology, 2011
Figure: Unevented and evented company-reported sales-based forecast, 2011
Figure: Targeted cancer therapies market forecast across the seven major markets, by region ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the seven major markets, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the US, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Japan, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in France, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Germany, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Italy, by class ($m), 2010–2020
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in Spain, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sales of targeted cancer therapies in the UK, by class ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Adcetris (brentuximab vedotin; Seattle Genetics/Takeda) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Arzerra (ofatumumab; Genmab/GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Avastin (bevacizumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Caprelsa (vandetanib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Erbitux (cetuximab; Eli Lilly/Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Gleevec (imatinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Herceptin (trastuzumab; Roche/Chugai) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Iressa (gefitinib; AstraZeneca) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Revlimid (lenalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Rituxan (rituximab; Biogen Idec/Roche/Chugai/Zenyaku) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sprycel (dasatinib; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Sutent (sunitinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Tarceva (erlotinib; OSI Pharmaceuticals/Genentech/Roche) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Tasigna (nilotinib; Novartis) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Thalomid (thalidomide; Celgene) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Torisel (temsirolimus; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Tykerb (lapatinib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Vectibix (panitumumab; Amgen) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Velcade (bortezomib; Takeda/Johnson & Johnson) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Votrient (pazopanib; GlaxoSmithKline) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Xalkori (crizotinib; Pfizer) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Yervoy (ipilimumab; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20
Figure: Zelboraf (vemurafenib; Roche/Plexxikon) sales, by country ($m), 2010–20