Global Energy Markets and Technologies: Focus on Emerging Markets

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the market for electricity generation on a global basis.  Its aim is to provide a range of information, from detailed national analyses to overall industry trends, in order to quantify and forecast markets for electricity generation. Various types of generation are forecast on a global basis. Forecasts and trends are developed from a cross-reference of data points, gleaned from government and industry sources and other divergent data sources to arrive at a cogent and coordinated forecast.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

The global market for electricity generation is enormous and growing at a high rate.  It is also extremely complicated from a technical, policy/regulatory, and economic/financial perspective.  This report analyzes different geographic and technology markets in order to help readers identify the regions and technologies where they can find the most promising opportunities.

This report also seeks to address changing market dynamics in the industry, emerging geographies, and types of technologies that are forecast to grow in each region.  This study also provides insight into the market structure in each region. This provides support to companies that are identifying global markets ripe for opportunity, and markets where entry or competition will be particularly difficult.

SCOPE OF REPORT

This report presents an analysis of current and historical installed capacity of electricity generation in each country and region in the world.  This analysis is organized by technology type, and data are presented for 2010 and 2011, with forecasts to 2016.  These data are also presented organized by technology type.

This report also presents forecasts as to the size and growth of the electricity generation market in each country and region in the world.  This report includes an analysis of the major industry structure in each market by geography.  This includes the levels of privatization versus public ownership of the electricity generation industry in a given market.  It also covers the ways in which the markets function and the level of competition that is present.  Relevant regulatory organizations, controls, and issues are also presented.

Important government policies are presented as they relate to electricity generation and the industry in each country and region.  The projected effects of these policies on the forecast for electricity generation in each country and region are discussed.  International agreements and the effect of regional cooperation is important in the electricity generating industries of many countries in the world, and these are also discussed where they are relevant.

Industry trends in each technology market are discussed.  The direction of each industry in each country and region supplements the market forecasts in order to give the reader a sense of the trends driving each forecast.

A competitive analysis of the major firms involved in electricity generation around the globe is presented.  The firms that are analyzed include the major companies active in the major markets covered in this report.  These include independent power producers, electric utilities with generation businesses for their own consumption or for sale on the wholesale market, as well as integrated utility companies that have a strong presence in the electricity generation industry.

Market figures are based on total installed capital cost of generation and are projected at 2011 dollar value.  Inflation is not computed into the projection figures.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

This report is an invaluable tool for business planners, acquisitions specialists, licensing strategists, product managers, market research analysts, investors, investor consultants and anyone interested in the global electricity generation market, the industry structure, and industry participants across the globe.

The importance of identifying overall market trends, product opportunities, emerging geographies, M&A opportunities, and insights that provide guidance for sales growth or defensive moves cannot be overstated for a variety of constituents, including:

Established companies in the industry shall benefit from the contents, including corporate strategy, sales and marketing, business development, and R&D.

Emerging energy technology players in the segment must understand specific market dynamics in the nations and regions presented here.  They must also understand trends and how they relate to the future of global electricity generation.

Investment firms evaluating candidates for venture capital or hedged investments will gain insights as to the opportunity and risk that are being encountered in different industries across the globe.  This report will enable them to have an understanding of opportunities for investments in the global energy-generating sector.

Equity analysts are provided detailed forecasts for the next 5 years, substantiated by quantitative analysis that can support further analysis to product and regional forecasts over the short and long run.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study. An analysis of global electricity industry generation statistics was conducted in order to create the forecasts presented here.  Forecasts of generation capacity in each country and region were acquired from a number of sources.  The primary source of these data was the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2010.  These data were supplemented and updated with data found in press releases, news articles, industry association analyses, and data published by specific companies analyzed in this report.

The primary source of capital and operating cost data for the market forecasts was the EIA’s “Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generating Plants,” published in November 2010.  These data were supplemented with analyst estimates based on experience in the electricity generating industries.

Forecasts of market size in each year are made by multiplying the amount of generating capacity that is expected to be installed in a particular market in a particular year by the capital cost per unit of that technology.  This provides a general high-level estimate of market size by technology and by country or region.  The additional assumptions that go into the capital cost estimates for each technology are explained further in the Technologies chapter of this report.

The primary sources of data on each company analyzed and profiled include articles published by industry analysts as well as data available on company websites and in annual reports.

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

Stepanie Denarie earned a bachelor’s degree in Environmental Studies from Brown University and has completed coursework in Corporate Finance from the University of California at Berkeley and San Francisco State University.

Ms. Denarie has intensive experience in energy transmission modeling and financial management, and has consulted for groups as diverse as Optimum Energy, LLC, the states of Utah and California, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Black & Veatch Corporation.

Stephanie has developed several economic models and software tools to forecast price and economic competitiveness for energy projects, most especially for local renewable energy resources in different renewable energy markets

Table Of Contents

Chapter- 1: INTRODUCTION - Complimentary
STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES
REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY
SCOPE OF REPORT
INTENDED AUDIENCE
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
ANALYST CREDENTIALS
RELATED REPORTS
BCC ONLINE SERVICES
DISCLAIMER

Chapter- 2: SUMMARY
Table : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, THROUGH 2016
Figure : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, 2010-2016

Chapter- 3: OVERVIEW
THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY
CONCEPTS IN THE INDUSTRY
ELECTRICITY GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES
LIFE CYCLE AND THE NATURE OF POWER SECTOR INVESTMENTS
IMPORTANCE OF THE INDUSTRY
FORESEEABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS
EFFECT ON THE FUTURE
UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY STORAGE (UES) TECHNOLOGIES
COSTS AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY
BENEFITS OF UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES
ALTERNATE ELECTICAL POWER STORAGE
SMART GRID

Chapter- 4: TECHNOLOGIES
INTRODUCTION
COST DATA AND MARKET FORECASTS
ASSUMPTIONS
DATA SOURCES
SUMMARY
COAL
NATURAL GAS
NUCLEAR
HYDROPOWER
SOLAR
WIND
BIOMASS
GEOTHERMAL
Table 11 : COST OF GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES

Chapter- 5: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
DRIVING FORCES IN THE INDUSTRY
STRATEGIES FOR STAYING COMPETITIVE
SHIFTS IN THE INDUSTRY
IMPACT ON/OF OTHER INDUSTRIES

Chapter- 6: MARKETS BY TECHNOLOGY
SUMMARY
COAL
NATURAL GAS
LIQUID FUELS
NUCLEAR
HYDROPOWER
WIND
SOLAR
GEOTHERMAL
BIOMASS

Chapter- 7: INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LANDSCAPE FOR ENERGY GENERATION
TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PATENTS
Figure 2 : PATENT APPLICATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, 1980-2005
Table L2 :

Chapter- 8: REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MARKET
INTRODUCTION
SUMMARY
Table 34 : GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 35 : GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY COUNTRY/REGION, 2011-2016
Table 36 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016

Chapter- 9: EMERGING MARKETS/REST OF WORLD
THE MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
BRAZIL
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA EXCEPT BRAZIL

Chapter- 10: COMPANY PROFILES 24 $1836
SUMMARY
COMPANIES

List of Tables

Summary Table : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, THROUGH 2016
Table 1 : VALUE CUMULATIVE CAPITAL BASE OF CCS TECHNOLOGIES, THROUGH 2014
Table 2 : ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STORAGE MARKET BY POWER SOURCE, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016
Table 3 : ASSUMED COSTS OF GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES
Table 4 : CAPITAL COST OF COAL TECHNOLOGIES
Table 5 : COST OF NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES
Table 6 : COST OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES
Table 7 : COST OF HYDROPOWER TECHNOLOGIES
Table 8 : COST OF SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES
Table 9 : COST OF WIND TECHNOLOGIES
Table 10 : COST OF BIOMASS TECHNOLOGIES
Table 11 : COST OF GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES
Table 12 : GLOBAL CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 13 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016
Table 14 : GLOBAL COAL ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 15 : GLOBAL COAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 16 : GLOBAL NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 17 : GLOBAL NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 18 : GLOBAL LIQUID FUEL ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 19 : GLOBAL NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 20 : GLOBAL NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 21 : GLOBAL HYDROPOWER ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 22 : GLOBAL HYDROPOWER ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 23 : GLOBAL WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 24 : GLOBAL WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 25 : GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 26 : GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 27 : GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 28 : GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 29 : GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 30 : GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 31 : GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 32 : GLOBAL BIOMASS ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 33 : GLOBAL BIOMASS ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016
Table 34 : GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 35 : GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY COUNTRY/REGION, 2011-2016
Table 36 : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016
Table 37 : THE MIDDLE EAST’S CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 38 : MIDDLE EASTERN MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016
Table 39 : AFRICA’S CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 40 : AFRICAN MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016
Table 41 : BRAZIL’S CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 42 : BRAZIL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016
Table 43 : CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA’S (EXCEPT BRAZIL) CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016
Table 44 : CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN (EXCEPT BRAZIL) MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2016

List of Figures

Summary Figure : GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, 2010-2016
Figure 1 : REPRESENTATION OF A DAILY LOAD CURVE
Figure 2 : PATENT APPLICATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, <1980-2005