Table of Contents
8. Executive summary
9. Overall telecoms service revenue in developed Asia–Pacific will grow slowly, surpassing USD200 billion in 2022
10. Telecoms retail revenue in DVAP will grow by USD10 billion between 2016 and 2022, thanks to strong mobile handset data revenue growth
11. Mobile revenue will grow in all DVAP countries except Hong Kong; only South Korea will have growth in fixed line business during 2016–2022
12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets in DVAP
13. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
15. Geographical coverage: By 2022, 4G/5G will account for 98% of all mobile connections (excluding IoT); FBB household penetration will reach 95%
16. Market context: SIM population penetration exceeded 120% and fixed broadband household penetration slowly grew to 86% in DVAP in 2016
17. Revenue and ARPU: Broadband services and high smartphone penetration will continue to depress voice revenue
18. Mobile penetration: Active mobile SIM penetration growth in the DVAP region will remain steady, reaching 124% by 2022
19. Mobile connections: the share of 4G mobile connections will continue to increase until 2019, and then start to decline as it is replaced by 5G
20. Smartphones and LTE: The smartphone share of total handsets in DVAP reached 71% in 2016 and will surpass 90% in 2022
21. Mobile broadband: The number of mobile broadband connections in DVAP will reach 22.7 million by 2022, 99% of these will be 4G/5G
22. Mobile ARPU: mobile ARPU for the DVAP region will grow slowly overall to USD33 per month by the end of the forecast period
23. Data and revenue by generation: Mobile data traffic will grow steadily, supported by new technologies, to reach 32.5EB in 2022
24. Fixed services: FTTP/B will continue to be the dominant broadband technology, leading to revenue growth in the DVAP region
25. Fixed broadband: High bandwidth demand, NBN plans and competition will drive fixed broadband household penetration to 95% in 2022
26. Key drivers at a glance for each market in developed Asia–Pacific
27. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
29. Individual country forecasts
30. Australia: Mobile data and fixed broadband revenue growth will mitigate traditional revenue decline during the forecast period
31. Australia– mobile: Termination rate reduction in 2016 will affect service revenue growth in the forecast period
32. Australia – fixed: Enhanced network coverage and intensified market competition will drive fixed broadband penetration growth
33. Hong Kong: Intensified competition will result in a retail revenue decline overall during the forecast period
34. Hong Kong – mobile: Competition will intensify in the mobile market after HKBN’s entrance, resulting in a decline in ARPU
35. Hong Kong – fixed: IPTV is becoming an engine for growth, thanks to an enriched content portfolio and TV box bundles
36. Japan: IoT will contribute to mobile penetration growth; technology improvements will further increase fixed penetration
37. Japan – mobile: Data-centric pricing will drive data revenue growth, compensating for voice and messaging revenue declines
38. Japan – fixed: Technology improvements, such as the deployment of 5G BFWA, are expected to increase the rate of FBB adoption
39. Singapore: The emergence of new operators in mobile and fixed markets will affect revenue growth during the forecast period
40. Singapore – mobile: The entrance of a fourth MNO will increase competition and lead to a higher rate of 4G adoption
41. Singapore – fixed: The market will be more saturated with limited growth in FBB subscriber numbers and revenue
42. South Korea: Mobile handset data and IPTV revenue growth will be the main contributors to an increase in overall retail revenue
43. South Korea – mobile: Connections are expected to be on 4G/5G by 2022; increasing OTT usage will drive data revenue growth
44. South Korea – fixed: IPTV subscriber base will continue to grow during forecast period, and drive fixed revenue growth
45. Taiwan: The introduction of unlimited data plans will continue to affect the revenue of other mobile and fixed services
46. Taiwan – mobile: Unlimited data plans will lead to high data usage per connection, but will negatively affect revenue growth
47. Taiwan – fixed: Operators will offer more-attractive plans and lead to FTTP/B subscriber growth during the forecast period
48. About the authors and Analysys Mason
49. About the authors
50. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
51. Research from Analysys Mason
52. Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia– Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by type and country, developed Asia– Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for developed Asia– Pacific
Figure 5: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2022
Figure 6: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in developed Asia– Pacific, 2016
Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016–2022
Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia–Pacific, 2016– 2022
Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G’s share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia–Pacific, 2016 and 2022
Figure 13: Mobile broadband connections by screen size and technology, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 15: Mobile service revenue and ARPU by technology, developed Asia Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 16: Data traffic and revenue per megabyte, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 17: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 18: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2012–2022
Figure 19: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2012) and future trajectory (2017–2022), by country, developed Asia–Pacific
Figure 20a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 20b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Australia, 2012–2022
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Australia, 2016–2022
Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2016–2022
Figure 24: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Australia, 2012–2022
Figure 25: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Australia, 2012–2022
Figure 26: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Australia
Figure 27: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Australia, 2012–2022
Figure 28: Fixed ASPU by service type, Australia, 2012–2022
Figure 29: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Australia
Figure 30: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Hong Kong, 2012–2022
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016–2022
Figure 32: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2016–2022
Figure 33: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Hong Kong, 2012–2022
Figure 34: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Hong Kong, 2012–2022
Figure 35: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
Figure 36: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Hong Kong, 2012–2022
Figure 37: Fixed ASPU by service type, Hong Kong, 2012–2022
Figure 38: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Hong Kong
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Japan, 2012–2022
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Japan, 2016–2022
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2016–2022
Figure 42: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Japan, 2012–2022
Figure 43: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Japan, 2012–2022
Figure 44: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Japan
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Japan, 2012–2022
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU by service type, Japan, 2012–2022
Figure 47: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Japan
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Singapore, 2012–2022
Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Singapore, 2016–2022
Figure 50: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2016–2022
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Singapore, 2012–2022
Figure 52: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Singapore, 2012–2022
Figure 53: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
Figure 54: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Singapore, 2012–2022
Figure 55: Fixed ASPU by service type, Singapore, 2012–2022
Figure 56: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Singapore
Figure 57: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), South Korea, 2012–2022
Figure 58: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, South Korea, 2016–2022
Figure 59: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2016–2022
Figure 60: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, South Korea, 2012–2022
Figure 61: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, South Korea, 2012–2022
Figure 62: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
Figure 63: Fixed penetration rates by service type, South Korea, 2012–2022
Figure 64: Fixed ASPU by service type, South Korea, 2012–2022
Figure 65: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, South Korea
Figure 66: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Taiwan, 2012–2022
Figure 67: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016–2022
Figure 68: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2016–2022
Figure 69: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Taiwan, 2012– 2022
Figure 70: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Taiwan, 2012–2022
Figure 71: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan
Figure 72: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Taiwan, 2012–2022
Figure 73: Fixed ASPU by service type, Taiwan, 2012–2022
Figure 74: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Taiwan