China lithium ion power battery industry outlook - PEST Analysis and Top 15 Manufacturers in-depth Survey, 2018 to 2021 forecast

Published: November 2017
No. of Pages: 274
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In 2016, the shipments of global power batteries were around 45.33 Gwh, which increased by 67% to 27.5 Gwh in the first half of 2017 on a YoY basis. Among which, TOP 10 manufacturers shipped 20.92 Gwh, which accounted for 76% of the total shipments.

China’s output and output value of power batteries reached 30.8Gwh and RMB 71.4 billion in 2016 respectively. In the first half of 2017, this market achieved nearly output value compared with the same time of 2016, which demonstrated characteristics as follow:

  • The share of NCM batteries continued to grow,
  • In November and December 2016, power batteries’ price has fallen sharply,
  • The shrinkage of the power battery market in the first half of 2017 was beyond expectation.

Due to the influence of government’s vague subsidy policies, the output of China’s power batteries in Q12017 were nearly equal to Q12016, but the output value was sharply decreased by 22%. In Q22017, the industry witnessed a small rebound. Along with the price fall, the market value of China’s power battery industry will slump in 2017. Many middle and small-sized manufacturers will record a loss, the industry will be reshuffled soon.

The future power battery market in China would draw certain features like below:

  • Around 2018, along with the permit of using NCM based power batteries in electric buses, the shipment of LFP power batteries will see the ceiling and then turn to a falling trend. The application scenarios of LFP batteries will change to energy storage.
  • NCM/NCA based power batteries will meet a significant development opportunity with output estimated to increase 8 times by 2020. NCA based power batteries have used in passenger cars in 2016, it will gradually become one of the mainstream technical routine.  

With the decline of subsidy and cost, power batteries price will embody a downturn trend. In 2017Q1, the price has decreased to RMB 1.8 yuan per WH, which is 20% higher in 2016Q1. Along with the price rising of cobalt and lithium carbonate, it is estimated the price of power batteries will be stabilized for the rest of 2017.

The price of power batteries in China would probably decrease to RMB 1.3 yuan per WH, some leading manufacturers could even make it RMB 1 to 1.2 yuan per WH. The decline will come from the increasing density and declining costs. This price level will meet the government’s target.

From the perspective of market concentration, TOP15 power battery manufacturers in China accounts for 89.8% of total shipments in 2016, as for TOP10 and TOP3, the figure is 78% and 55.8% respectively.

Published By: Chisult Insight
Product Code: Chisult Insight6


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