Epidemiology: HIV – Antiretrovirals prevail as patient population grows

Introduction

The number of people living with HIV in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) continues to increase and is believed to have reached 2.3 million by the end of 2009, 30% more than in 2001. Increases in diagnoses and improved prognosis will lead to an increase in the diagnosed prevalence of HIV, presenting a large market potential for therapeutic products.

Features and benefits

• Gain insight into the market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiological forecast of diagnosed HIV prevalent cases.
• Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with HIV.

Highlights

In 2010, Datamonitor estimates that there were nearly 1.1 million diagnosed prevalent cases of HIV in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Between 2010 and 2021, Datamonitor forecasts that diagnosed HIV prevalent cases in the seven major markets will increase by 17%, to 1.3 million cases.

In 2010, the US had the greatest number of prevalent diagnosed HIV ca of all the seven major markets (819,500 cases), or 75% of all diagnosed prevalent cases in the seven major markets. By 2021, the number of prevalent diagnosed HIV cases in the US will increase to 864,300.

In the five major EU markets, there were 267,900 diagnosed prevalent HIV cases in 2010 but will increase to 412,000 by 2021. Among the five EU markets, the UK had the greatest number of prevalent diagnosed HIV cases (75,800 cases) in 2010. Japan had about 12,000 people living with diagnosed HIV in 2010 but this will increase to 18,800 by 2021.

Your key questions answered

• What is the number of people living with diagnosed HIV infection in the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK?
• How will the HIV patient population change over the next decade in the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK?
• What are the major risk factors of HIV that drive trends in HIV prevalence and how are they changing?

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary
Disease burden overview
Datamonitor’s forecast of HIV
Diagnosed prevalence

OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary

DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSIS CRITERIA
HIV causes AIDS
Diagnosis and testing of HIV
Classification of HIV/AIDS

GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS
Disease burden overview
Global variation
Sub-Saharan Africa: the most affected region
Europe: increasing HIV diagnosis but declining AIDS cases
North America and Western Europe: surging HIV epidemics in men who have sex with men
Historical trends
HIV in the seven major markets: stable diagnosis but increasing prevalence

DRIVERS OF HIV/AIDS EPIDEMIOLOGY
The US provides compelling evidence of the magnitude of HIV infection risk in men who have sex with men
Injection drug users and the epidemiology of HIV
African-Americans and sub-Saharan Africans
Hemophiliacs and blood transfusion recipients
Blood transfusion, blood factor products, and occupational exposure
Co-infection with other sexually transmitted infections or blood-borne viruses

EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF HIV
Overview
Population denominators
Age-standardized prevalence
US
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Japan
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
France
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Germany
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Italy
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Spain
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
UK
Sources used
Methods
Sources not used
Categorization and stratification
Risk groups
Sex
Age
Disease stage

EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS
Estimated prevalent cases of HIV and future trends
Segmentation by age
Segmentation by risk group
Segmentation by sex
Segmentation by disease stage

DISCUSSION
US: stabilizing epidemic but with the highest number of HIV patients in the industrialized nations
Five major EU markets: resurgent HIV epidemic
Japan: HIV epidemic yet to reach its peak
Strengths and limits of Datamonitor’s epidemiologic projections

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Journal papers
Websites

APPENDIX
Module methodology